Analysis: Muhammad Naimov vs Mairon Santos

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Mairon Santos to Win

Score: 18
Odds:
Muhammad Naimov: +220
Mairon Santos: -295

Muhammad Naimov's Breakdown

Naimov brings a taekwondo-based striking game with legitimate power and creative offensive weapons. His signature technique is the spinning hook kick—he nearly ended Bogdan Grad with one 90 seconds into their June 2025 fight, though the calf landed instead of the heel. That same bout showed his twist kick (inside crescent kick) to the body, a weapon Leon Edwards and Cyril Gane have adopted. Against Kaan Ofli, he demonstrated fluid stance switching into liver kicks and crushing body attacks that had Ofli covering up after a five-punch combo in round two.

His clinch work has improved. Against Ofli, he landed short elbows and controlled the fence position effectively. When he secured mount in round three after Ofli's failed takedown attempt, he cut loose with rapid-fire elbows before taking the back with a body triangle.

Naimov's recent evolution shows better composure under pressure. He's won four of his last five UFC outings, bouncing back from the Lima submission loss with consecutive decision wins. His takedown defense has tightened—he stuffed Ofli's attempts and reversed position when Grad shot in round three.

But here's the concern: Naimov has struggled to finish fights when he has opponents hurt. Against Grad, he couldn't capitalize after the spinning kick rocked him. Against Ofli, he had over three minutes of back control with a body triangle and couldn't secure the rear-naked choke. His finishing instincts remain questionable.

Muhammad Naimov's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Susceptibility to Counter Punching: Against Ofli in round two, he ate a clean uppercut right on the jaw. He absorbed it well, but the shot landed flush. When trading left hooks, Naimov staggered. Santos times counter overhands beautifully—this is a direct exploitation point.

2. Clinch Control Issues: Ofli powered into double underhooks and bullied Naimov to the fence multiple times in their February 2025 fight. Santos showed elite underhook defense against Yusuff, slipping punches and immediately establishing double underhooks to elevate opponents out of shots. If Naimov tries his boxing-to-clinch approach, Santos could reverse position.

3. Submission Defense Concerns: Felipe Lima submitted Naimov with a rear-naked choke in June 2024. Lima was a natural bantamweight fighting up two weight classes on short notice. When Naimov faces unexpected offensive wrestling, his defensive grappling along the fence proves inadequate. Santos has shown zero interest in grappling offensively, but the vulnerability exists.

4. Pattern Recognition Against Reactive Fighters: Against Nathaniel Wood, Naimov resorted to fouls (fence grabs, glove grabs, groin strikes) when his primary gameplan failed. Santos reads offensive sequences before they develop—the type of fighter who makes opponents desperate.

Mairon Santos's Breakdown

Santos operates with elite defensive awareness and a composed, methodical counter-striking approach. His high, upright stance optimizes kick checking—he punished Sodiq Yusuff's low kicks throughout their May 2025 fight, immediately transitioning from successful checks into Yoza kicks targeting Yusuff's rear quad. One such kick in round three visibly affected Yusuff's movement.

His slip-to-underhook defense is textbook. Against Yusuff, when faced with a high-level combination (high kick → right straight → level change for takedown), Santos blocked the kick, slipped the straight, dropped both hands beneath Yusuff's armpits, and elevated him out of the shot. This sequence required reading each offensive layer before it fully developed.

The counter overhand right remains his finishing weapon. Against Kaan Ofli in August 2024, he timed a beautifully compact overhand that immediately slumped Ofli—proper weight transfer, hip engagement, and hand positioning. The follow-up ground strikes were described as one of the more graphic knockouts in recent memory.

Santos's recent evolution shows improved confidence in his takedown defense. He's willing to let opponents engage in grappling attempts knowing his defense will hold, then capitalize when they're frustrated and overextended.

Mairon Santos's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Susceptibility to Calf Kicks and Left Hooks: Francis Marshall dropped Santos with a hard calf kick in round one of their March 2025 fight. Seconds later, Marshall swept him off his feet with another powerful calf kick. Later in that same round, Marshall dropped Santos with a huge stepping left hook that clearly rocked him. Naimov throws punishing low kicks—he fired one immediately off the restart against Ofli.

2. Pressure Fighting Exposure: Marshall successfully maneuvered Santos to the cage on multiple occasions and completed three takedowns with over two-and-a-half minutes of control time. While Santos's takedown defense is solid, extended clinch battles could expose cardio limitations. His preference for countering rather than leading can result in close rounds when opponents maintain defensive discipline.

3. Offensive Output Limitations: Santos's composed, reactive style may prove problematic against opponents who can match his defensive acumen while generating higher offensive volume. Against Marshall, despite winning the split decision, his stock took a considerable dive. He landed more strikes but struggled to impose his will against sustained pressure.

4. Untested Against Chain Wrestling: While Santos defended Yusuff's shot well, that takedown attempt came from a telegraphed position after a blocked kick. His response to chain wrestling or shots from less predictable angles remains unexamined.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This fight presents a fascinating striker-versus-striker dynamic with contrasting approaches. Naimov wants to close distance with boxing into clinch work, while Santos prefers to maintain range and counter.

Santos's counter overhand right could exploit Naimov's tendency to lunge forward. Against Ofli, Naimov lunged with a front kick and got beaned with a right hand over the top that stunned him. Santos times these entries exceptionally well.

Naimov's spinning attacks present unique problems. Santos's high stance optimizes kick checking against conventional low kicks, but the spinning hook kick and twist kick travel on unconventional trajectories. Santos hasn't faced this level of kicking creativity.

The clinch battle favors Santos. Naimov's overhook-with-head-pressure position is among the weakest tie-up variations for offensive wrestling. Santos's underhook defense and ability to elevate opponents out of shots would neutralize Naimov's preferred clinch entries.

Calf kick exchanges could determine the fight. Both fighters have shown vulnerability to leg attacks. Naimov was dropped by Marshall's calf kicks; Santos was swept by them. Whoever establishes leg kick dominance early gains a significant advantage.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Santos's pattern recognition and defensive awareness should establish control. Naimov typically needs time to read opponents before deploying his creative kicks. Expect Santos to check early low kicks and counter with Yoza kicks, potentially compromising Naimov's mobility.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Naimov can't land his spinning attacks or establish clinch control, he may become predictable. Against Wood, when his gameplan failed, he resorted to fouls. Santos creates this precise dynamic—making opponents feel like nothing works.

Championship Rounds (if applicable): Naimov's cardio has held up through three-round fights, but he's never been pushed into deep waters against elite defensive fighters. Santos's composed approach conserves energy while his opponents tire through failed offensive sequences.

Analysis and Key Points

• Santos's 100% takedown defense neutralizes any wrestling threat Naimov might present. Naimov's 42.86% takedown accuracy against Santos's perfect defense is a non-factor.
• Naimov's significant striking impact differential (-5.17) compared to Santos's (+14.00) reveals a massive gap in effective striking.
• Santos's recent knockdowns per fight (1.25) shows legitimate finishing power, while Naimov's (0.35) suggests he relies on decisions.
• The Marshall fight exposed Santos, but he showed chin durability—getting dropped twice and recovering to win. Naimov hasn't shown that same recovery ability.
• Santos's striking defense percentage (66.15%) significantly outpaces Naimov's (45.35%), meaning Santos will land cleaner while taking less damage.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence score of 18 reflects a competitive fight with Santos holding the edge. Key SHAP features:

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 11.0—the betting market heavily favors Santos (-295), and the model partially discounts this.
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight increased the score by 3.0—Naimov's wrestling activity (6.28 recent attempts) could create scrambles, though Santos defends them well.
• Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 2.0—Santos's improved defensive numbers (70.94%) give him an edge in exchanges.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential decreased the score by 2.0—Naimov's negative differential (-5.17) hurts his case.
• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 2.0—Naimov's 67% recent win rate versus Santos's 100% factors in.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has correctly predicted three of Naimov's last four fights, missing only the Wood bout where it picked Wood to win. The model has correctly predicted both of Santos's UFC fights—the Yusuff decision and the controversial Marshall split decision.

This track record suggests the model reads both fighters accurately. It correctly identified Naimov as a winner against Ofli, Silva, and Grad, but also recognized when he was vulnerable (picking Wood). For Santos, the model has been perfect despite the Marshall fight being razor-close.

Conclusion

Santos's elite defensive awareness, counter-punching timing, and superior striking metrics make him the clear favorite here. Naimov's creative kicks and clinch work won't find the same success against a fighter who reads offensive sequences before they develop. Santos's counter overhand right will find Naimov's chin when he lunges forward—the same way Marshall's right hand stunned him. WolfTicketsAI has Santos winning this featherweight clash, and the technical matchup supports that pick.