Analysis: Jan Blachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Bogdan Guskov to Win

Score: 3
Odds:
Jan Blachowicz: -142
Bogdan Guskov: +112

Jan Blachowicz's Breakdown

The 42-year-old Polish veteran enters this fight having lost two of his last three UFC bouts, including a unanimous decision loss to Carlos Ulberg in March 2025. Blachowicz's career has been defined by his "Legendary Polish Power"—that devastating left hook that's ended fights against Luke Rockhold, Corey Anderson, and Dominick Reyes. His signature technique remains the left hook to the body followed by a right straight upstairs, a combination he threw roughly twelve times against Aleksandar Rakic.

Blachowicz operates as a counter-striker who prefers to work from his back foot, using an active jab to interrupt forward pressure. Against Ulberg, he demonstrated excellent pattern recognition, timing his right low kick against Ulberg's lean-back counter left hook. His shin-to-shin kicking strategy has historically paid dividends, accumulating damage on opponents' lead legs.

The Polish fighter has shown tactical intelligence when facing dangerous strikers. Against Israel Adesanya, he patiently waited until the championship rounds before implementing his wrestling, recognizing that early takedowns would be wasted against a fresh opponent. He secured three takedowns and accumulated over seven minutes of control time—the most Adesanya had ever allowed.

However, Blachowicz's recent performances reveal a fighter whose physical tools have diminished. His conditioning has been a career-long issue, typically offering approximately one and a half rounds of effective cardio before significant degradation occurs. Against Ulberg, he couldn't sustain pressure beyond the opening rounds despite finding technical solutions to his opponent's counter-striking.

Jan Blachowicz's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Catastrophic Cardio Limitations This has plagued Blachowicz for a decade. Against Ulberg, he gassed approximately four minutes into the fight after pursuing back control—a position that shouldn't demand maximum exertion. His punch volume drops dramatically after 7-8 minutes, forward pressure becomes unsustainable, and his defensive reactions deteriorate. Against Pereira, he was "gassed out of his arse" by the second round.

2. Predictable Offensive Sequencing Blachowicz's reliance on the same left hook-right straight combination creates a readable pattern. Against Thiago Santos, he "went to the well one too many times with his favorite shifting combination of uppercut and hooks"—a combination Santos timed and countered for the knockout. The left hook to the body requires dropping the lead hand, placing his head within countering range.

3. Takedown Defense Degradation Under Pressure Against Ankalaev, Blachowicz's takedown defense deteriorated significantly in rounds 3-5. By the fifth round, he was falling to the mat without significant offensive entries from his opponent. When attempting the kimura from half guard, he repeatedly exposed his forearm, allowing Ankalaev to establish the Dagestani handcuff position and deliver sustained ground-and-pound.

Bogdan Guskov's Breakdown

The 30-year-old Uzbek fighter has been on a tear, winning his last four fights—all by finish. Guskov operates with an unorthodox striking profile, fighting with his hands notably low and leading frequently with his right hand rather than establishing with a jab. His primary weapon is the running right hand lead—a lunging straight right thrown from distance where he takes a pronounced run-up into the punch.

Against Nikita Krylov, Guskov demonstrated his exceptional counter-timing ability. When Krylov committed to a kick with forward movement, Guskov read the entry, remained planted, and timed a counter right hand perfectly. Krylov walked directly into the punch, with his own forward momentum amplifying the impact for the knockout.

Guskov's finishing instincts are elite. Against Ryan Spann, after stunning him with the right hand lead, he immediately transitioned into sustained pressure flurries rather than loading up on single power shots. The fight-ending sequence came via a right uppercut inside the jab—slipping to the inside of Spann's jab and delivering the uppercut simultaneously, a technically sophisticated counter reminiscent of Gentleman Jim Corbett's signature punch.

His grappling has evolved significantly. Against Billy Elekana at UFC 311, Guskov survived having his back taken for extended periods in round one, then reversed position and nearly secured a rear-naked choke at the bell. In round two, despite a suspected broken right hand, he adapted by targeting Elekana's body to drain his energy, then capitalized with a guillotine choke for the finish.

Bogdan Guskov's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Defensive Exposure from Low Hand Position Fighting with hands down creates significant vulnerability to straight punches and combinations targeting the head. Against Zac Pauga, "Guskov's hands were often down and he'd get caught on the end of these punches." His head movement and ability to roll with shots mitigates some damage, but against a precise counter-puncher like Blachowicz, this could prove costly.

2. Predictable Right Hand Timing Guskov's reliance on the right hand lead creates a readable pattern. Against Volkan Oezdemir, "the very first one he threw in this fight, Oezdemir ducked into the clinch and got the takedown." Oezdemir then cycled through three different counter solutions—outside slip to double leg, inside slip to lead hook (knockdown), and stance switch to open-side counter (second knockdown)—exploiting the same telegraphed entry.

3. Takedown Susceptibility Following Right Hand Commitment The full commitment required for his lunging right hand lead leaves him vulnerable to reactive takedowns. Against Elekana, he was taken down early and had his back taken for extended periods. Opponents who can time his entry and change levels will find consistent success.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This fight presents a fascinating clash between Blachowicz's counter-punching expertise and Guskov's aggressive, power-first approach.

Guskov's Techniques That Could Exploit Blachowicz's Gaps: - The running right hand lead could catch Blachowicz as his cardio fades and defensive reactions slow - Guskov's sustained pressure flurries could overwhelm Blachowicz in rounds 2-3 when his conditioning deteriorates - Body work—which Guskov showed against Elekana—could accelerate Blachowicz's cardio decline

Blachowicz's Techniques That Could Cause Problems for Guskov: - His counter left hook could exploit Guskov's low hand position during right hand entries - Blachowicz's leg kicks could disrupt Guskov's forward movement and timing - If Blachowicz can survive the early onslaught, his experience in championship rounds could prove valuable

The historical parallel here is Blachowicz vs. Santos in 2019. Santos employed a patient counter-fighting approach, waited for Blachowicz to commit to his predictable shifting combination, and timed a devastating counter. Guskov possesses similar counter-timing ability, as demonstrated against Krylov and Spann.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds (1-2): Blachowicz typically starts strong, using his jab and leg kicks to establish range. His power is most dangerous in the opening 7-8 minutes. However, Guskov's aggressive style and willingness to absorb punishment while waiting for openings could draw Blachowicz into the type of exchanges that drain his cardio. Expect Guskov to test Blachowicz's chin early with his right hand lead.

Mid-Fight (Round 2-3): This is where the fight likely turns. Blachowicz's conditioning issues historically manifest around this point. Against Ulberg, Pereira, and Ankalaev, he visibly faded in the second round. Guskov's ability to maintain consistent speed and output—as he did against Spann—could become the decisive factor. If Blachowicz's punch volume drops and his defensive reactions slow, Guskov's counter-timing becomes increasingly dangerous.

Championship Rounds (if applicable): Should this fight reach the later rounds, Blachowicz's experience becomes a factor. He's been in five-round fights against elite competition. However, his cardio limitations make sustained effectiveness unlikely. Against Ankalaev, he was essentially conceding position by the fifth round.

Analysis and Key Points

• Blachowicz's cardio is the elephant in the room. He's 42 years old and has never fixed this issue. Against younger, fresher opponents, he consistently fades after the first round and a half.

• Guskov's finishing rate is elite. He has 0 decision wins in his career—two submissions and 14 knockouts. He has 12 first-round finishes and has been to a third round only twice.

• The counter-timing dynamic favors Guskov. Blachowicz's predictable shifting combination has been exploited before (Santos). Guskov demonstrated against Oezdemir, Spann, and Krylov that he can time and counter committed entries.

• Blachowicz's recent form is concerning. He's lost two of his last three, including getting outworked by Ulberg and knocked out by Pereira. His "legendary Polish power" appears diminished.

• Guskov is riding momentum. Four straight finishes, including a guillotine submission that showed evolving skills. He's 30 years old and entering his prime.

Understanding the Prediction

The SHAP features reveal the key factors driving this prediction:

• Odds increased the model's score by 3.0—Guskov being the underdog at +112 suggests value that the model recognizes
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 2.0—Guskov's recent striking output and damage have been significantly higher
• Recent Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 1.0—further emphasizing Guskov's recent striking effectiveness
• Reach increased the score by 1.0—Blachowicz's 78" reach vs. Guskov's 76" is a minor factor
• Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 1.0—Guskov's defensive metrics have improved

Conversely: - Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 3.0—Blachowicz's 33% recent win rate vs. Guskov's 100% is significant - TrueSkill decreased the score by 2.0—Blachowicz's established rating (Mu: 34.45) vs. Guskov's developing rating (Mu: 25.0) reflects career accomplishment - Win Streak Difference decreased the score by 1.0—Guskov's four-fight win streak vs. Blachowicz's recent losses

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with both fighters:

Jan Blachowicz: - Correctly predicted Ulberg to beat Blachowicz (score: 0.75) - Correctly predicted Pereira to beat Blachowicz (score: 0.40) - Incorrectly predicted Rakic to beat Blachowicz (score: 0.36)—Blachowicz won by TKO when Rakic's knee gave out

Bogdan Guskov: - Incorrectly predicted Krylov to beat Guskov (score: 0.52)—Guskov won by TKO - Incorrectly predicted Spann to beat Guskov (score: 0.65)—Guskov won by TKO - Incorrectly predicted Pauga to beat Guskov (score: 0.69)—Guskov won by TKO

This is notable: the model has been wrong about Guskov three consecutive times, always picking against him. Guskov has defied expectations repeatedly, suggesting his finishing ability and counter-timing may be undervalued by statistical models. Meanwhile, the model has correctly identified Blachowicz's decline in his last two fights.

Conclusion

Bogdan Guskov represents the new generation at light heavyweight—a 30-year-old finisher riding a four-fight streak against a 42-year-old former champion whose cardio limitations have defined his career. Blachowicz's counter-punching expertise and experience give him paths to victory, particularly if he can land his left hook early while Guskov's hands are down. But the conditioning disparity is simply too significant. Expect Guskov to weather Blachowicz's early offense, then capitalize on his fading cardio with sustained pressure and his trademark counter-timing. WolfTicketsAI sees the younger, fresher fighter getting the finish.