Analysis: Brandon Moreno vs Tatsuro Taira

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Brandon Moreno to Win

Score: 7
Odds:
Brandon Moreno: +110
Tatsuro Taira: -140

Brandon Moreno's Breakdown

Brandon Moreno enters this fight as the underdog despite being the more experienced fighter with championship pedigree. The former two-time UFC Flyweight Champion has shown he's back on track with consecutive wins over Amir Albazi and Steve Erceg, both by unanimous decision.

Signature Techniques:

1. Jab-to-Left Hook Counter: Moreno's bread and butter. Against Erceg, his jab allowed him to get in and land two clean left hooks that had Erceg standing stunned. Against Figueiredo in their fourth fight, he used the parry-to-left hook counter off kicks to devastating effect—the finishing sequence came directly from parrying Figueiredo's left kick and launching the left hook that swelled his eye shut.

2. Step-Up Left Kick to Body/Head: First weaponized against Kai Kara-France, this technique has become a reliable combination ender. Against Kara-France, he threw the spinning back fist forcing retreat, then immediately pursued with a devastating left kick to the liver that ended the fight. He's shown the ability to vary the level—starting low to the leg in early rounds, then elevating to the head later.

3. Kick-Catch Takedown Entry: Moreno demonstrated tactical awareness against Figueiredo by throwing his own low kick to invite the return kick. As opponents load onto one leg to counter-kick, Moreno steps in with a left hook while reaching for the elevated leg, converting offensive action into takedown opportunities.

Technical Evolution:

Moreno's recent performances show a more measured approach. Against Erceg, he controlled distance by giving ground to lure his opponent in, then meandered forward when Erceg didn't bite. His shortened stance under James Krause's coaching has improved his lead leg withdrawal defense against low kicks—a vulnerability Figueiredo exploited in their third fight.

Brandon Moreno's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Forward Lean on Power Punches: Moreno consistently overextends his torso past his base when throwing overhands and wide left hooks. Against Royval in their rematch, this created windows for counter uppercuts and stepping knees. Royval timed lead uppercuts directly into Moreno's dropping head position throughout rounds two and three.

2. Susceptibility to Power Right Hands During Exchanges: Despite landing consistently across all four Figueiredo fights, Moreno has repeatedly been hurt or dropped by single power shots. In their third fight, Figueiredo's right hand dropped Moreno even during rounds he was winning. His tendency to trade in the pocket exposes him to counter power shots.

3. Defensive Shell When Hurt: When stunned by Royval's counter left straight in round four of their rematch, Moreno immediately shelled up with a high guard and retreated linearly to the fence. This predictable recovery pattern allowed Royval to pursue effectively, landing a clean knee and eventually securing a takedown.

Tatsuro Taira's Breakdown

Tatsuro Taira bounced back impressively from his first career loss to Brandon Royval with a second-round submission of HyunSung Park. The 24-year-old Japanese prospect remains one of the most dangerous grapplers in the flyweight division.

Signature Techniques:

1. Smash Pass (Weave Pass): Taira's primary guard passing technique involves consolidating the opponent's knees together, driving them to one side, then sprawling hip weight directly on top of the stacked legs. Against Park, he maintained this control throughout extended ground work, completely neutralizing Park's offensive capability.

2. Inside Body Triangle Back Control: Previously demonstrated against Alex Perez, Taira employs a distinctive back control method using an inside body triangle configuration. Against Perez, this created extreme pressure that resulted in joint damage—notably snapping Perez's ACL when Taira applied lateral leverage to compromise Perez's base.

3. Jab-to-Double Collar Tie Transition: Against Park, Taira extended the jab as Park closed distance, then immediately transitioned to head control. This exploits the fundamental vulnerability of offensive counterpunchers—when fighters slip punches, their head moves forward of their hips, making them susceptible to clinch entries.

Technical Evolution:

The Park fight showed improved striking sophistication. Taira's pull counter right hand over Park's jab demonstrated refined timing not prominently featured in earlier performances. He also showed patience in entry selection rather than pursuing immediate takedowns.

Tatsuro Taira's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Struggles Against Dynamic Wrestlers: The Royval loss exposed difficulties when facing opponents with scrambling ability. Royval's kinetic movement patterns created problems Taira couldn't solve. Despite over 12 minutes of ground control time, Taira couldn't finish and was outworked on the feet.

2. Striking Defense Under Sustained Pressure: Against Royval, Taira's head movement failed him, allowing Royval to pull ahead on damage and chip away at his gas tank. He absorbed 124 significant strikes compared to landing only 42. Against Chairez, he was dropped by a power punch early.

3. Cardio Concerns in Championship Rounds: Against Royval, Taira looked "really fatigued" by round three despite wearing shots well initially. His output dropped significantly in the later rounds, and he appeared visibly tired by round five.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This fight presents a fascinating clash between Moreno's veteran savvy and Taira's suffocating grappling.

Moreno's Path to Victory:

Moreno's kick-catch takedown defense and scrambling ability could frustrate Taira's entries. Against Formiga, Moreno fended off a very difficult guillotine and arm-bar while maintaining top position—showing he can hang with elite grapplers. His jab-hook combinations could exploit Taira's tendency to keep hands low and chin high. If Moreno can keep the fight standing and land his left hook consistently, he can outpoint Taira over five rounds.

Taira's Path to Victory:

Taira's smash pass and body triangle back control could neutralize Moreno's offense entirely. Moreno's forward lean on power punches creates opportunities for Taira's double collar tie entries. If Taira can secure back control, his inside body triangle could present serious problems for Moreno's escape attempts.

Historical Parallel:

The Royval-Taira fight provides the clearest template. Royval—a fighter stylistically similar to Moreno with scrambling ability and dangerous striking—found success by maintaining high output on the feet and timing escapes during Taira's positional transitions rather than his consolidated control.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds:

Expect Taira to test Moreno's takedown defense immediately. Moreno's improved stance under Krause should help him check low kicks and avoid early grappling exchanges. Moreno's jab-based offense could establish range and score points if he can keep Taira at distance.

Mid-Fight Adjustments:

If Taira secures extended control time early, Moreno may need to increase his offensive wrestling to prevent being smothered. Conversely, if Moreno's striking is landing clean, Taira may become more desperate with his shot timing—potentially opening himself to Moreno's counter left hook.

Championship Rounds:

This is where Moreno's experience becomes crucial. He's been in five-round wars against Figueiredo, Pantoja, and Royval. Taira's only five-round fight was the Royval loss, where he visibly faded. Moreno's cardio and composure in championship rounds could be the deciding factor.

Analysis and Key Points

• Moreno's striking defense percentage (56.59%) significantly outpaces Taira's (40.12%), suggesting Moreno is better at avoiding damage in exchanges
• Moreno's recent win percentage (67%) trails Taira's (67%), but Moreno has faced significantly tougher competition
• Taira's takedown accuracy (48.72%) will be tested against Moreno's improved takedown defense ratio (55.56%)
• Moreno has never been submitted in the UFC despite facing elite grapplers like Formiga, Figueiredo, and Pantoja
• Taira's only loss came via split decision to Royval—a fighter with similar scrambling ability to Moreno
• Warning: Taira was unable to finish from dominant positions against both Royval and Candelario, suggesting Moreno could survive grappling exchanges

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Moreno is driven by several key factors:

• Striking Defense Percentage increased the prediction score by 4.0—Moreno's ability to avoid damage (56.59% vs Taira's 40.12%) is a significant edge
• Recent Win Percentage increased the score by 3.0—Moreno's recent form shows he's back to championship level
• Odds increased the score by 2.0—the model sees value in Moreno as an underdog
• Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 1.0—Moreno lands more meaningful shots
• Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 1.0—Moreno's defensive improvements are noted

However, TrueSkill decreased the score by 2.0—Taira's rating reflects his dominant performances, and Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight decreased the score by 1.0—acknowledging Taira's grappling threat.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with both fighters:

Brandon Moreno (4-3): - Correctly predicted wins over Erceg (0.68), Albazi (0.55), and Kara-France (0.72) - Incorrectly predicted wins over Royval (0.73) and Pantoja (0.69)—both split decision losses - Incorrectly predicted Figueiredo to beat Moreno in their fourth fight (0.74)

Tatsuro Taira (4-1): - Correctly predicted wins over Park (0.67), Perez (0.70), Hernandez (0.79), and Vergara (0.68) - Incorrectly predicted Taira to beat Royval (0.69)—a split decision loss

The model has been wrong about Moreno in close split decisions, but his recent performances have validated the model's confidence. The Taira-Royval miss is particularly relevant—the model overestimated Taira against a scrambler with championship experience, which describes Moreno perfectly.

Conclusion

This is a classic experience-versus-youth matchup. Taira's grappling is elite, but his only loss came against a fighter with similar attributes to Moreno—scrambling ability, dangerous striking, and five-round cardio. Moreno's striking defense, championship experience, and improved defensive wrestling give him the tools to frustrate Taira's game plan. The model sees value in the underdog, and Moreno's path to victory—keeping the fight standing, landing his left hook, and surviving grappling exchanges—is clearer than Taira's path to finishing the durable Mexican veteran. WolfTicketsAI backs Brandon Moreno to upset the odds and move closer to another title shot.