Analysis: Roman Kopylov vs Gregory Rodrigues

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Gregory Rodrigues to Win

Score: 2
Odds:
Roman Kopylov: +130
Gregory Rodrigues: -166

Roman Kopylov's Breakdown

Kopylov brings a sophisticated southpaw striking game built around deceptive setups and technical precision. His signature weapon is the fake-slide-hook sequence—he feints a right hand or kick, slides forward, then rips a left hook to the body. Against Costa, this combination landed repeatedly and showcased genuine craft. His right straight thrown with a slip-left mechanic exploits open-stance matchups, moving offline while punching to minimize counters.

The Russian's body attack is methodical rather than explosive. He accumulated damage against Costa with right body kicks and front kicks, though he couldn't hurt Paulo enough to secure a finish. That's the pattern: Kopylov lands clean, technical shots but lacks the finishing sequences to capitalize. Against Curtis, his heavy jab with the pulled-back elbow loading generated power, but Curtis exploited the retraction path by following it back with combinations in round two.

Kopylov's recent evolution shows improved combination work and feint integration. Against Fremd, he mixed jabs, one-twos, and liver kicks effectively before finishing with a left hook. His 4-1 record in his last five shows he's winning rounds consistently, though three of those wins went to decision. He's a "strong puncher" who makes opponents uncomfortable without dropping them with single shots.

Roman Kopylov's Technical Vulnerabilities

Jab Retraction Liability: Kopylov's power jab uses a dumbbell-row loading mechanic—pulling his elbow behind his body before firing. Curtis's corner identified this immediately: "the line of his jab is awful." When Kopylov retracts, he pulls back along the same predictable path, creating a timing window for opponents to follow with combinations. Curtis exploited this in round two, tracking the jab back and landing 1-2s consistently.

Finishing Instinct Gap: Despite landing clean shots throughout his UFC run, Kopylov struggles to construct finishing sequences. He hurt Costa multiple times but couldn't string together the follow-up combinations necessary to complete stoppages. This isn't a power issue—it's a technical gap in his offensive chains. Against durable opponents or those with championship cardio, this becomes critical since he can't remove variables by ending fights early.

Stance-Dependent Effectiveness: Kopylov's best weapon—the right body kick—loses potency in mirror-stance matchups. Against fellow southpaws, opponents can turn and step away, taking the kick on their back or catching it. His offensive system is optimized for orthodox opponents where his left-side weapons and inside foot positioning create maximum problems.

Gregory Rodrigues's Breakdown

Rodrigues operates as a relentless pressure fighter with finishing instincts that Kopylov lacks. His inside slip counter system is elite-level—he baits opponents into engaging, slips left, then fires a compact right straight that's nearly invisible. Against Cannonier in round one, this technique landed twice and hurt the veteran both times. He can also return with a left hook off the same slip, giving him a legitimate two-weapon threat.

The Brazilian's body attack through front kicks and punches accumulates damage over championship rounds. Against Hermansson, these investments paid off as Jack's movement declined late. Rodrigues secured clinch positions along the fence, controlled underhooks, and landed damaging knees in tight quarters. His physicality at 185 is substantial—he appeared larger than Cannonier despite Paulo's heavyweight origins.

Rodrigues averages 1.06 knockdowns per fight with a 74% win rate. He's finished 10 opponents by knockout and three by submission, showing legitimate finishing ability across positions. Against Tavares, he blended a single-leg pickup into strikes, dropping the takedown to land a right straight. His 6.19 strikes landed per minute reflects constant offensive output, and he's willing to walk through shots to land his own power.

Gregory Rodrigues's Technical Vulnerabilities

Counter-Dependent System Exploited by Feints: Cannonier dismantled Rodrigues's game in round two by pumping non-committal jabs and throwing "mimed" punches from extended range. When opponents refuse to provide committed strikes to counter, Rodrigues becomes passive and hesitant. His offensive toolkit lacks sufficient variety to force exchanges when opponents control the engagement pace. This creates a tactical dilemma: wait for counters and lose rounds, or initiate offense outside his technical comfort zone.

Body Work Exposure During Counters: Cannonier repeatedly landed right straights to Rodrigues's body underneath his counters and jab. When Rodrigues commits to his inside slip, his torso remains stationary even as his head moves, creating a reliable target. This vulnerability compounds because body shots reduce his counter-punching power while forcing him to defend a wider target area. Against Kopylov's specialized body attack, this gap becomes critical.

Cage Positioning Awareness: In the Cannonier finish, Rodrigues allowed himself to be pushed toward the fence—a positional failure for a fighter whose game requires space to slip and counter. Once against the cage with limited escape angles, his inside slip lost effectiveness. Cannonier weaved right after landing his straight, stepping off centerline and throwing a left hook into Rodrigues's compressed defensive space. This suggests Rodrigues doesn't recognize or prevent positional deterioration until too late.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup pits Kopylov's technical precision against Rodrigues's pressure and finishing instincts. The stance dynamics favor Kopylov initially—as a southpaw facing another southpaw, his right body kick loses effectiveness, but Rodrigues's counter system also faces challenges in mirror stance. Both fighters have shown vulnerabilities against fellow southpaws.

Kopylov's body attack directly exploits Rodrigues's counter-dependent defense. When Rodrigues loads his inside slip counter, his midsection stays exposed—exactly where Kopylov targets with left hooks, front kicks, and body shots. The fake-slide-hook combination that troubled Costa could find consistent success against Rodrigues's stationary torso positioning.

However, Rodrigues's pressure style counters Kopylov's need for space and rhythm. Kopylov's technical game requires distance to execute his slip mechanics and footwork patterns. Rodrigues's relentless forward advancement compresses that space, potentially forcing Kopylov into phone booth exchanges where his technical advantages diminish. The Brazilian's willingness to walk through shots to land power negates Kopylov's accumulation-based approach.

The finishing ability gap is substantial. Rodrigues has shown he can capitalize when opponents are hurt—against Hermansson, Tavares, and Marquez, he constructed finishing sequences that Kopylov consistently fails to execute. If Kopylov lands his technical shots but can't finish, Rodrigues's durability allows him to survive and return fire with fight-ending power.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Kopylov should establish his technical striking early, using his fake-slide-hook to the body and right straights with slip mechanics. His jab and footwork can control distance if Rodrigues hasn't closed the gap. Rodrigues will pressure immediately, looking to compress space and force exchanges where his power becomes relevant. The first five minutes determine if Kopylov can maintain his preferred range or if Rodrigues imposes phone booth warfare.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: If Kopylov's body work accumulates, Rodrigues's counter-punching power diminishes—similar to what Cannonier accomplished. However, if Rodrigues survives the technical striking and closes distance consistently, Kopylov's finishing inability becomes critical. Rodrigues can absorb damage that would trouble most middleweights and continue pressing. Kopylov's jab retraction vulnerability becomes more exploitable as Rodrigues downloads the timing.

Championship Rounds: Rodrigues's cardio for his aggressive style is solid—he maintained pace against Hermansson through the finish. Kopylov has shown he can win later rounds through technical striking, but his inability to finish means Rodrigues stays dangerous throughout. If the fight reaches round three competitive, Rodrigues's finishing instincts give him pathways to victory that Kopylov lacks. Body work accumulation could favor either fighter depending on who's landed more effectively.

Analysis and Key Points

• Kopylov's recent loss to Costa came via decision after landing clean technical shots throughout. Costa's durability and pressure overwhelmed Kopylov's technical advantages—a blueprint Rodrigues can follow.

• Rodrigues lost 2 of his last 3 (Cannonier KO, Petrosyan split decision), showing vulnerability to fighters who control engagement pace and exploit his counter-dependent system.

• Recent Win Percentage favors both equally at 67%, but Rodrigues's finishing rate (1.06 knockdowns per fight) vastly exceeds Kopylov's (0.77).

• Body attack clash: Kopylov's specialized body work (left hooks, front kicks, right body kicks) targets Rodrigues's exact vulnerability—exposed midsection during counter preparation.

• Pressure vs. Technical Space: Rodrigues's relentless forward advancement directly counters Kopylov's need for distance to execute technical striking.

• Finishing ability gap: Rodrigues constructs finishing sequences; Kopylov lands clean shots but can't capitalize. Against durable opponents, this becomes decisive.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Rodrigues stems from several statistical edges. Recent Win Percentage increased the score by 3 points—both sit at 67%, but Rodrigues's recent wins show finishing ability while Kopylov's show decision-grinding. TrueSkill added 2 points, reflecting Rodrigues's higher rating (31.24 mu vs. 27.31 mu) based on opponent quality and performance consistency.

Striking Impact Differential metrics added 2 points total (striking impact +1, recent striking impact +1), favoring Rodrigues's ability to land more damaging shots. His 5.73 striking impact differential vastly exceeds Kopylov's -12.7, showing Rodrigues consistently outlanding opponents in significant exchanges.

The odds decreased the prediction score by 5 points—Rodrigues is the betting favorite at -166, so the model adjusts confidence downward to account for market expectations already pricing in his advantages. Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight decreased the score by 1, reflecting that Rodrigues's 6.71 attempts per fight could create grappling exchanges where Kopylov's defensive wrestling (14% takedown defense) becomes vulnerable.

Average Striking Output Differential decreased by 1 point, noting Kopylov's -28 differential suggests he's typically outlanded, while Rodrigues's +6.73 shows he controls striking exchanges. The model weighs these statistical edges against the odds adjustment, landing on a confidence score of 2 for Rodrigues.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record with both fighters. For Kopylov, the model correctly predicted his wins over Curtis (0.69 score), Fremd (0.71), and Ribeiro (0.68), but incorrectly favored him against Costa (0.67) where Paulo's durability and pressure proved decisive. The model also missed on Cesar Almeida (predicted Cesar at 0.57, Kopylov won split decision).

For Rodrigues, the model correctly predicted wins over Hermansson (0.60), Tavares (0.31—low confidence but correct), Tiuliulin (0.82), and Marquez (0.35). However, it incorrectly favored Rodrigues over Cannonier (0.69) where Jared's tactical adjustments and body work led to a fourth-round finish. The model also missed on Duncan (predicted Christian at 0.56, Rodrigues won decision).

The pattern shows the model recognizes Rodrigues's finishing ability but sometimes overestimates his chances against technical strikers who can control engagement pace (Cannonier). For Kopylov, the model accurately predicts his technical striking success but missed how Costa's durability negated his advantages. This fight presents similar dynamics—Kopylov's technical precision versus Rodrigues's pressure and finishing instincts.

Conclusion

Gregory Rodrigues takes this fight through relentless pressure and superior finishing ability. Kopylov's technical striking will land—his fake-slide-hook to the body and slip-left right straights will find success early. But Kopylov's inability to construct finishing sequences means Rodrigues survives the technical work and imposes his will through sustained pressure. The Brazilian's body work vulnerability is real, but his durability allows him to absorb Kopylov's accumulation-based offense while returning fight-ending power. When Rodrigues closes distance and forces phone booth exchanges, Kopylov's technical advantages diminish and his 14% takedown defense becomes exploitable. Rodrigues has shown he can capitalize when opponents are hurt; Kopylov has shown he can't. That finishing instinct gap proves decisive. Rodrigues by knockout in round two or three.