Analysis: Malcolm Wellmaker vs Cody Haddon

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Cody Haddon to Win

Score: 11
Odds:
Malcolm Wellmaker: -174
Cody Haddon: +136

Malcolm Wellmaker's Breakdown

Wellmaker enters 10-0 with two UFC first-round knockouts, both earning Performance of the Night bonuses. He's a calculated counter-striker who excels at trap-setting along the fence. Against Cameron Saaiman in April, Wellmaker methodically backed him to the cage, then deliberately created space to bait an escape attempt. When Saaiman tried to circle off with forward momentum, Wellmaker pivoted on his lead foot and landed a devastating right hook from a 3 o'clock angle that lifted Saaiman's head and ended the fight.

Two months later against Kris Moutinho at UFC Atlanta, Wellmaker entered as the biggest betting favorite in UFC history (-1450) and delivered. He opened with heavy low kicks that wobbled Moutinho immediately, then systematically attacked the body. Wellmaker admitted post-fight that his team identified Moutinho's vulnerability to the right hook backstage—he even practiced the finishing sequence minutes before the walkout. At 2:37 of Round 1, Wellmaker feinted a low kick and uncorked a winging right hook from his southpaw stance that sent Moutinho faceplanting into the canvas.

Signature Techniques:

1. Pressure-bait-pivot counter: Wellmaker backs opponents to the fence, creates escape space, then pivots on his lead foot for a right hook as they circle out. Executed perfectly against Saaiman.

2. Body work to head trap: Against Moutinho, repeated body shots forced him to drop his hands, opening the high line. Wellmaker stated: "The only reason I got the knockout is because he didn't want to get hit to the body no more."

3. Low kick feint to power punch: Wellmaker establishes the leg kick threat early, then weaponizes it as a feint. The Moutinho finish came directly off this setup—fake the kick, land the hook.

Wellmaker lands 6.74 significant strikes per minute at 61% accuracy with a sterling 6.52 knockdowns per fight. His average fight time is 2:14. He's never been past the first round in the UFC.

Malcolm Wellmaker's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Leg Kick Defense Under Pressure: Against Saaiman, Wellmaker absorbed several low kicks early while implementing his pressure game. His forward weight distribution when pressuring makes his lead leg an accessible target. The stats confirm this—he absorbs 1.96 leg kicks per minute, significantly higher than he lands (1.30).

2. Untested Cardio and Extended Fight Management: Wellmaker's never been past 2:37 in the UFC. He absorbs 6.27 significant strikes per minute, which could accumulate against volume strikers who extend fights. His recent striking defense has dropped to 42%, suggesting defensive lapses when fights continue beyond his early finishing sequences.

3. Predictable Right Hook Pattern: Wellmaker has now finished three consecutive fights with variations of the same technique—the right hook. While devastatingly effective, this pattern recognition risk could be exploited by opponents who study film and implement counter-strategies. Both UFC finishes came from similar setups: establish a threat (body work or leg kicks), then land the hook when opponents react defensively.

Cody Haddon's Breakdown

Haddon made his UFC debut in October against Dan Argueta and dominated across all three rounds, winning 30-27 on all scorecards. The Australian prospect showcased high-volume striking, landing 9.33 significant strikes per minute at 50% accuracy while absorbing just 2.27 head strikes per minute.

In Round 1 against Argueta, Haddon immediately established his combination striking, working body-head sequences that put Argueta in danger. When Argueta shot a double leg, Haddon sprawled cleanly, upping his confidence. Round 2 was his most dominant—he landed a beautiful knee-to-right-hand combination early, then unexpectedly completed a scoop takedown. When Argueta pressed forward seeking offense, Haddon timed a brutal counter-knee that became one of the fight's defining moments. He closed the round with a big right hand that further damaged the tiring Argueta.

Signature Techniques:

1. Body-head combination striking: Haddon consistently flows from midsection attacks to head strikes. Against Argueta, 62% of strikes targeted the head and 24% the body, with seamless transitions between levels that divided defensive focus.

2. Counter-striking against pressure: When Argueta lumbered forward flailing big strikes, Haddon picked him off with accurate counters. The brutal knee as Argueta advanced in Round 2 exemplified his timing and distance management.

3. Defensive wrestling fundamentals: Haddon stuffed multiple double-leg attempts with excellent sprawls and cage wrestling. His quick escapes from back control and ability to return to standing neutralized Argueta's primary weapon.

Haddon's striking differential is massive—140 significant strikes landed above his opponents. He's a 3x Australian Junior national amateur boxing champion with a BJJ black belt, providing a strong technical foundation.

Cody Haddon's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Leg Kick Defense: Argueta landed a front leg kick that dropped Haddon, demonstrating a clear defensive gap. Haddon absorbs 0.47 leg kicks per minute while landing just 0.13—he's not checking kicks systematically. Against Wellmaker's heavy low kicks (which wobbled Moutinho immediately), this vulnerability becomes critical.

2. Takedown Defense Efficiency (20%): While Haddon successfully defended most of Argueta's takedowns, the constant defensive effort was taxing. Late in Round 3, Argueta finally secured a takedown as Haddon's energy depleted. His 20% takedown defense ratio indicates he's getting taken down when opponents commit to wrestling, though he escapes well.

3. Wild Striking Moments: Despite his boxing pedigree, Haddon occasionally abandons fundamentals. Against technical counter-strikers like Wellmaker who set traps, these moments of overextension could create defensive vulnerabilities. Wellmaker specifically exploits opponents who press forward aggressively—exactly what Haddon does when he gets wild.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup hinges on whether Haddon's volume can overwhelm Wellmaker before the counter-striker lands his signature right hook. Haddon's pressure-heavy style plays directly into Wellmaker's trap-setting game. Against both Saaiman and Moutinho, Wellmaker waited for opponents to press forward, then countered with devastating precision.

Haddon's Paths to Victory:

Haddon's leg kicks could disrupt Wellmaker's pressure game. Against Saaiman, Wellmaker absorbed several low kicks while implementing his fence-backing strategy. Haddon needs to systematically attack Wellmaker's lead leg early, preventing him from establishing his trap-setting rhythm. If Haddon can force Wellmaker into extended exchanges beyond the first round, his cardio advantage becomes decisive—Wellmaker's never been past 2:37 in the UFC.

Haddon's combination striking and body work could also neutralize Wellmaker's counter-punching. By mixing levels and maintaining high volume (9.33 significant strikes per minute vs Wellmaker's 6.74), Haddon can potentially overwhelm the counter-striker's timing.

Wellmaker's Paths to Victory:

Wellmaker's right hook is tailor-made for Haddon's tendencies. When Haddon gets "wild" and presses forward—exactly what he did against Argueta—he creates the same escape patterns Wellmaker exploited against Saaiman. Wellmaker's low kick feints will be particularly effective given Haddon's demonstrated vulnerability to leg attacks (the Argueta knockdown).

Wellmaker's body work could set up the finish. Against Moutinho, systematic body attacks forced defensive reactions that opened the head. Haddon absorbs 0.87 body strikes per minute—not terrible, but Wellmaker's 2.83 body strikes landed per minute suggests he'll find a home there.

The critical technical mismatch: Haddon's counter-striking works against brawlers like Argueta who "lumber forward flailing big strikes." Wellmaker doesn't brawl—he sets calculated traps. When Haddon presses forward seeking his combinations, Wellmaker will create space, bait the entry, then pivot for the hook.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds (0-5 minutes):

Wellmaker establishes his low kick threat immediately—he wobbled Moutinho within seconds. Haddon must check these kicks or face mobility compromise. If Haddon successfully implements leg attacks of his own, he disrupts Wellmaker's pressure game and forces extended striking exchanges where his volume advantage matters.

The first 2:37 is Wellmaker's finishing window—he's never been past this point. Haddon needs to survive the early trap-setting without pressing forward recklessly. If Wellmaker backs him to the fence and creates escape space, Haddon must recognize the trap and use lateral movement instead of forward momentum to exit.

Mid-Fight (5-10 minutes):

If the fight reaches this phase, advantage shifts dramatically to Haddon. Wellmaker's untested cardio becomes a factor—his recent striking defense dropped to 42%, suggesting defensive lapses when fights extend. Haddon's three-round experience against Argueta, despite visible fatigue, proves he can maintain offensive output and defensive discipline through 15 minutes.

Haddon's combination striking and body work accumulate damage. Wellmaker absorbs 6.27 significant strikes per minute—sustainable for 2:37, problematic over 10+ minutes.

Championship Rounds (10-15 minutes):

Haddon's territory entirely. Wellmaker has zero data here. Even if Wellmaker's cardio holds, his technical approach—patient trap-setting and calculated counters—requires energy and timing precision that typically deteriorate with fatigue.

Analysis and Key Points

• Wellmaker's first-round finishing rate (100% in UFC) meets Haddon's three-round durability: Haddon survived 15 minutes against a wrestler who pressured relentlessly. Wellmaker's traps require opponents to make mistakes—Haddon's experience managing adversity could help him avoid the early hook.

• Leg kick dynamics favor Wellmaker: His heavy low kicks wobbled Moutinho immediately and he absorbed several against Saaiman while maintaining his game. Haddon got dropped by a front leg kick from Argueta and doesn't check systematically (0.13 landed vs 0.47 absorbed per minute).

• Volume vs precision: Haddon lands 9.33 significant strikes per minute; Wellmaker lands 6.74 but at 61% accuracy with 6.52 knockdowns per fight. One fighter needs accumulation, the other needs one clean shot.

• The pressure paradox: Haddon's success comes from pressing forward with combinations. Wellmaker's success comes from opponents pressing forward. Someone's gameplan gets exploited.

• Short-notice factor: Haddon took this fight replacing Serhiy Sidey with one month's notice. Camp adjustments to address Wellmaker's specific trap-setting may be incomplete.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence score of 11 reflects a close fight with multiple conflicting factors:

• Odds increased Haddon's score by 6 points—the betting market sees value in the underdog, suggesting Wellmaker's favoritism may be overblown.

• Significant Striking Impact Differential decreased Haddon's score by 5 points—Wellmaker's 8.0 differential vs Haddon's 86.0 seems contradictory until you realize Wellmaker's number reflects two fights totaling 4:51 while Haddon's reflects one 15-minute fight. The model recognizes Wellmaker's per-minute impact.

• Recent Win Percentage decreased Haddon's score by 3 points—Wellmaker's perfect 1.0 vs Haddon's 0.89 (one loss in nine fights) factors in.

• Striking Defense Percentage increased Haddon's score by 2 points—Haddon's 61% defense vs Wellmaker's 65% seems close, but Wellmaker's recent defense dropped to 42%, suggesting vulnerability in extended exchanges.

The model identifies Haddon's durability, volume striking, and extended fight experience as advantages that outweigh Wellmaker's first-round finishing power. Critically, the Reach feature increased Haddon's score by 1 point despite Wellmaker having a 71" reach vs Haddon's 69"—the model may be accounting for Haddon's ability to work at multiple ranges (distance, clinch, ground) vs Wellmaker's distance-only approach.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI predicted Wellmaker to defeat Moutinho with a score of 0.81 and was correct—Wellmaker won by first-round KO/TKO. This demonstrates the model's ability to identify Wellmaker's finishing power against limited opposition.

However, this is Haddon's first prediction. The model has no historical data on him, introducing uncertainty. Haddon's debut performance against Argueta provides limited data—one fight against a wrestler who missed weight by 2.5 pounds. The model must extrapolate from regional success and physical attributes.

The risk: Wellmaker's trap-setting and right hook have proven UFC-effective. Haddon's durability and volume are proven regionally but untested against elite counter-strikers at this level.

The confidence: Haddon's technical boxing foundation, defensive wrestling, and three-round cardio provide multiple paths to victory beyond simply surviving the early onslaught.

Conclusion

Wellmaker's first-round finishing power is real—he's ended three consecutive fights with variations of the right hook, including the biggest betting favorite performance in UFC history. But Haddon's volume striking, combination work, and proven durability over 15 minutes provide the blueprint to neutralize the trap-setter. If Haddon survives the early leg kicks and avoids pressing forward recklessly when backed to the fence, his cardio and output overwhelm Wellmaker in later rounds. The Australian's technical boxing and body work accumulate damage Wellmaker's never experienced, forcing him into extended exchanges where his untested gas tank and declining defensive metrics (42% recent striking defense) become liabilities. WolfTicketsAI backs Haddon to weather the early storm and break Wellmaker's perfect record with volume, durability, and championship-round dominance.