Analysis: Baisangur Susurkaev vs Eric McConico

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Baisangur Susurkaev to Win

Score: 32
Odds:
Baisangur Susurkaev: -1000
Eric McConico: +560

Baisangur Susurkaev's Breakdown

Susurkaev enters this middleweight bout as an undefeated prospect (10-0) with a perfect UFC record, though his lone octagon appearance against Eric Nolan revealed both his potential and his developmental gaps. The southpaw operates with a competent fundamental striking base built around his left hand power, but his tendency toward showboating creates tangible defensive vulnerabilities.

Signature Techniques:

1. Southpaw Left Straight Power: Susurkaev's primary weapon is his left hand, which he uses with solid range management and full power transfer. Against Nolan, this punch was his most reliable offensive tool once he abandoned theatrics in Round 2.

2. High-Volume Takedown Attempts: Susurkaev averages 14.96 takedown attempts per fight with 4.28 successful takedowns, demonstrating relentless wrestling pressure even with modest 28.57% accuracy. This grinding approach wears opponents down and opens submission opportunities.

3. Submission Finishing: With 2.14 submissions per fight, Susurkaev shows legitimate grappling chops. His ability to chain wrestling into submission attempts makes him dangerous once fights hit the mat.

Technical Evolution:

The Nolan fight forced Susurkaev to mature quickly. After getting stunned at the end of Round 1 while showboating, he eliminated the theatrics in Round 2 and implemented systematic southpaw boxing to secure the finish. This adaptability suggests coachability, though the lesson came dangerously close to costing him his undefeated record.

Baisangur Susurkaev's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Showboating Creating Defensive Windows (Round 1 vs Nolan)

Susurkaev's most glaring vulnerability is his tendency to prioritize performance over positional discipline. At the end of Round 1 against Nolan, while engaging in unnecessary stylistic flourishes, he was caught with a clean strike that visibly stunned him. The bell saved him from follow-up damage, but the exchange demonstrated how his attention diverts from defensive responsibility during theatrical moments. This creates exploitable timing windows where his defensive awareness completely lapses.

2. Unrefined Defensive Structure Under Pressure

When stunned by Nolan, Susurkaev's defensive reactions deteriorated significantly. His recovery patterns were notably less polished than his offensive sequences, suggesting limited experience working through adversity against capable opposition. His 58.62% striking defense percentage is mediocre, and his tendency to absorb 2.42 head strikes per minute indicates he relies more on durability than defensive craft.

3. Activity Management and Fight IQ Lapses

The necessity to "stop showboating for a minute to turn it around and win" against Nolan reveals Susurkaev occasionally misjudges opponent threat levels. He relies on athletic superiority rather than sustained technical pressure, which becomes increasingly exploitable as competition improves. His 28.57% takedown accuracy also suggests he burns energy on failed attempts rather than setting up entries systematically.

Eric McConico's Breakdown

McConico arrives in rough shape, having lost 2 of his last 3 UFC fights with a recent win percentage of just 33%. The 35-year-old southpaw carries legitimate power but operates at an alarmingly low output, landing just 0.74 significant strikes per minute in recent fights. His UFC debut against Nursulton Ruziboev exposed catastrophic durability issues when he was knocked out at 0:33 of Round 2 after showing excessive caution throughout.

Signature Techniques:

1. Timing-Based Power Punching: Against Cody Brundage, McConico landed a massive left hand early in Round 1 that dropped and rocked his opponent. This demonstrates legitimate one-shot power when he commits to exchanges, though his 36.47% significant striking accuracy shows he misses far more than he lands.

2. Wall-Walking and Scrambling: McConico consistently demonstrated the ability to escape bottom positions against Brundage, powering up through wall-walks despite having poor takedown defense statistics (75% overall, 84.33% recent). His scrambling instincts are solid even if his initial defensive wrestling is lacking.

3. Late-Round Pressure Fighting: In Round 3 against Brundage, McConico walked his opponent down effectively, landing knees, high kicks, and an elbow that busted Brundage open. When he commits to sustained pressure, he can overwhelm fading opponents.

Technical Context:

McConico's split decision win over Brundage was highly controversial, with 6 of 9 media outlets scoring it for Brundage. He was statistically outworked over the first two rounds but secured the decision through late aggression. This pattern of slow starts and late surges is problematic against higher-level competition.

Eric McConico's Technical Vulnerabilities

1. Catastrophic Durability Issues (Round 2 vs Ruziboev)

McConico was knocked out at 0:33 of Round 2 against Ruziboev after being dropped multiple times. His previous two career losses before the UFC also came by knockout, establishing a clear pattern of defensive fragility. He absorbs 1.44 head strikes per minute recently, and his 32.11% recent significant striking defense percentage is dangerously low for UFC competition.

2. Excessive Caution and Low Output

Against Ruziboev, McConico showed "excessive caution, appearing hesitant due to Ruziboev's power." He failed to implement any significant offense in Round 1, allowing his opponent to control pace. His 0.74 recent significant strikes landed per minute is catastrophically low—he simply doesn't throw enough to win rounds consistently. His recent striking accuracy has plummeted to 27.09%, suggesting deteriorating offensive sharpness.

3. Non-Existent Takedown Offense

McConico attempts zero takedowns per fight and has 0% takedown accuracy. Against a wrestler like Susurkaev who averages nearly 15 takedown attempts per fight, McConico has no offensive wrestling to threaten or create respect. His 84.33% recent takedown defense won't hold up against sustained wrestling pressure, especially as he fatigues.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup heavily favors Susurkaev's grinding approach against McConico's fragile defensive structure.

Susurkaev's Exploitation Paths:

Susurkaev's high-volume takedown attempts (14.96 per fight) will immediately test McConico's 84.33% recent takedown defense. McConico has shown he can scramble back to his feet, but the repeated defensive wrestling exchanges will drain his cardio—a critical factor given both fighters gassed in their previous bouts. Once McConico's legs are compromised, Susurkaev's submission game (2.14 per fight) becomes increasingly dangerous.

On the feet, Susurkaev's southpaw left hand matches up directly against McConico's deteriorating defensive awareness (32.11% recent significant striking defense). The Nolan fight showed Susurkaev can be patient and systematic when necessary, which is the perfect approach against a low-output opponent. McConico's 0.74 significant strikes per minute won't create enough offensive threat to make Susurkaev respect his power.

McConico's Narrow Path:

McConico's only realistic path involves landing his timing-based left hand early before Susurkaev establishes wrestling control. The Brundage fight showed McConico can drop opponents with single shots, and Susurkaev's showboating creates defensive windows. However, this requires McConico to overcome his tendency toward excessive caution—the same hesitancy that doomed him against Ruziboev.

McConico's wall-walking ability could help him survive early takedowns, but Susurkaev's relentless pace (4.28 successful takedowns per fight) means McConico will be defending wrestling constantly. His non-existent takedown offense means he can't threaten Susurkaev or create respect, allowing the undefeated prospect to shoot freely.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds (1-2):

Susurkaev will likely open with his southpaw striking to establish range, potentially showboating if he feels comfortable. McConico's best chance exists in these early moments—if Susurkaev drops his hands during theatrics, McConico's timing-based power could land clean. However, McConico's recent pattern of excessive caution suggests he'll be hesitant to commit, allowing Susurkaev to establish his wrestling.

Once Susurkaev secures his first takedown, the fight's trajectory becomes clear. McConico will scramble back up, but the repeated defensive wrestling will accumulate fatigue. Susurkaev's 66.29% striking accuracy and 5.13 significant strikes per minute will allow him to land consistently between wrestling entries.

Mid-Fight Adjustments:

If McConico survives the early wrestling pressure, he historically surges in Round 3. However, this requires him to have enough energy remaining after defending 10-15 takedown attempts. Susurkaev's cardio is questionable (he needed to refocus against Nolan), but his wrestling-heavy approach is less cardio-intensive than McConico's defensive scrambling.

Susurkaev's submission threat increases as McConico fatigues. With 2.14 submissions per fight and McConico's deteriorating defensive awareness late in fights, a finish becomes increasingly likely if the fight extends.

Championship Rounds:

McConico's late-round pressure worked against a fading Brundage, but Susurkaev's grappling-heavy approach preserves energy better than striking exchanges. If Susurkaev maintains top position in Round 3, McConico's scrambling ability will be compromised by accumulated fatigue, creating submission opportunities.

Analysis and Key Points

• Undefeated Pressure vs Declining Veteran: Susurkaev's 10-0 record and perfect UFC start contrasts sharply with McConico's 1-2 UFC record and 33% recent win percentage
• Wrestling Mismatch: Susurkaev's 14.96 takedown attempts per fight against McConico's zero offensive wrestling creates one-way grappling pressure
• Durability Concerns: McConico was knocked out at 0:33 of Round 2 in his last loss—Susurkaev's left hand power poses similar knockout threats
• Output Disparity: Susurkaev lands 5.13 significant strikes per minute vs McConico's 0.74 recent rate—a 7x difference in offensive activity
• Age and Trajectory: Susurkaev is an ascending 10-0 prospect while McConico is 35 years old with declining metrics across the board
• Submission Threat: Susurkaev's 2.14 submissions per fight against a fatiguing opponent with no offensive wrestling is a clear finish path

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Susurkaev is driven by overwhelming statistical advantages:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 19 points—the -1000 line reflects Susurkaev's massive skill advantage
• Significant Striking Impact Differential added 5 points—Susurkaev's +14 differential dwarfs McConico's -10
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight added 4 points—Susurkaev's 14.96 attempts will overwhelm McConico's defense
• Recent Win Percentage added 2 points—Susurkaev's 100% vs McConico's 33% shows diverging trajectories
• Striking Defense Percentage added 2 points—Susurkaev's 58.62% is significantly better than McConico's 32.11% recent rate
• TrueSkill, Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential, Reach, and Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage each added 1 point—marginal advantages that compound Susurkaev's overall edge

Every meaningful statistical category favors Susurkaev, creating a lopsided matchup that the model correctly identifies as heavily one-sided.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has never predicted Susurkaev before, as this is only his second UFC appearance. However, the model correctly predicted McConico's controversial split decision win over Brundage with a score of 0.50, demonstrating it can identify McConico's narrow path to victory when conditions align.

The key difference: McConico faced a similarly flawed opponent in Brundage (who was also gassing and getting outwrestled). Against an undefeated wrestler with superior cardio, output, and finishing ability, McConico's late-round surge strategy won't materialize.

Conclusion

Susurkaev dominates this matchup across every phase. His relentless wrestling pressure will drain McConico's cardio while his southpaw power threatens the knockout against an opponent with documented durability issues. McConico's catastrophically low output (0.74 significant strikes per minute recently) won't create enough offensive threat to make Susurkaev cautious, allowing the undefeated prospect to implement his grinding gameplan freely.

The 10-0 prospect finishes the declining veteran inside two rounds, likely by submission after accumulating top control. WolfTicketsAI's pick of Susurkaev is as close to a lock as you'll find in MMA.