Analysis: Jaqueline Amorim vs Mizuki

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jaqueline Amorim to Win

Score: 28
Odds:
Jaqueline Amorim: -480
Mizuki: +330

Jaqueline Amorim's Breakdown

Amorim enters as a massive favorite, and for good reason. She's riding a four-fight finish streak that showcases her world-class Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu credentials. Against Polyana Viana in April 2025, she secured takedowns within seconds of both rounds, demonstrating explosive entries that gave Viana zero time to establish any offense. The rear-naked choke finish at 1:49 of Round 2 was textbook—body triangle locked, relentless hand fighting, and a finish so tight Viana had no choice but to tap.

Her September 2024 performance against Vanessa Demopoulos revealed her elite positional control. After catching Demopoulos' kick, Amorim immediately pulled guard and threatened with a triangle. When Demopoulos slammed her to break free, Amorim held the position and transitioned seamlessly to an armbar at 3:28 of Round 1. That armbar—her signature submission with eight career finishes—is automatic for her. Against Cory McKenna in March 2024, she jumped guard within 30 seconds, locked a triangle, and when McKenna defended, flowed directly into another armbar finish at 1:38.

The technical evolution is clear. After her UFC debut loss to Sam Hughes exposed catastrophic cardio issues (she dominated Round 1 with back control and RNC attempts but completely gassed in Rounds 2-3), Amorim addressed the weakness. Her recent finishes all come in Rounds 1-2, but more importantly, she's developed wrestling-based takedowns rather than relying solely on guard pulls. Against Viana, those explosive double-legs in the opening seconds of both rounds showed improved MMA wrestling.

Her ground-and-pound has become a weapon too. Against Demopoulos, she postured up and landed punches to open defensive postures before advancing to mount. Against Viana in Round 1, she landed heavy strikes from mount before Viana gave up her back. This striking-to-submission integration makes her positional advances even more dangerous.

Jaqueline Amorim's Technical Vulnerabilities

Takedown defense remains non-existent. Her stats show 0% takedown defense in her early UFC run, improving only marginally to 15% recently. Against McKenna, she willingly jumped guard when McKenna shot. Against Demopoulos, she caught a kick rather than defending conventionally. This works when you're the superior grappler, but it's a gamble. If Mizuki can secure top position and avoid submissions, Amorim's defensive wrestling could be exposed.

Cardio remains questionable despite improvements. The Sam Hughes fight in April 2023 revealed the issue—Amorim won Round 1 on all scorecards with dominant back control and RNC attempts, but by Round 2 she was pulling guard defensively and doing nothing from bottom. Round 3 saw Hughes land hammerfists and punches while Amorim survived. Her recent finishes mask whether she's truly solved this problem or just avoided testing it.

Striking remains secondary and predictable. Against Viana, she offered a glove touch then immediately shot for a takedown within five seconds. Against Demopoulos, minimal striking preceded the caught kick. Her pattern is obvious: close distance, secure takedown, dominate on the ground. Against patient strikers who can maintain distance, she has no credible plan B. Her 3.05 significant strikes landed per minute and 52% accuracy are functional but not threatening.

Mizuki's Breakdown

Mizuki brings experience—15-6 overall with a 2-1 UFC record—but her recent performances reveal a fighter struggling to impose her game. Against Hannah Goldy in September 2023, she returned from a three-year ACL injury layoff and won a split decision (29-28 across the board) through clinch control and fence wrestling. She repeatedly put Goldy's back to the cage and reversed positions in scrambles, but couldn't create any significant damage or finish attempts. The fight was competitive enough that one judge scored it for Goldy.

That performance showed ring rust and hesitation. Mizuki admitted she was "a little bit rusty" and "wasn't able to show the fans what she can do." Her striking output was minimal—she stayed mobile on the outside but rarely engaged in extended exchanges. When they finally opened up in the last minute of Round 3, it felt like the first time she'd committed to striking all fight.

Against Amanda Lemos in August 2020, Mizuki's limitations became glaring. Lemos—a former bantamweight with significant size and power advantages—knocked Mizuki down with a right hand in Round 1. Despite Mizuki's clinch control and cage work, she couldn't complete takedowns against Lemos' strength. When she finally threatened armbars from bottom (her favorite technique), Lemos simply powered out. The 30-27 unanimous decision reflected Lemos' superior striking power and Mizuki's inability to impose her grappling.

Her UFC debut against Wu Yanan in August 2019 was a split decision win (29-28, 29-28, 28-29) where she was outstruck 123-93. Mizuki won through pressure, cage control, and superior head movement, but failed to secure a single takedown despite multiple attempts. Wu kept her at distance with leg kicks and circling footwork. The fight exposed that Mizuki lacks knockout power—she has zero KO victories in her decade-long career—and struggles to threaten opponents on the feet.

Mizuki's Technical Vulnerabilities

Takedown success rate is abysmal. She completes takedowns at just 14.29% accuracy (0.33 per fight, attempting 2.33). Against Wu Yanan, she failed every attempt. Against Lemos, when she finally seemed close, Lemos powered out and reversed position. Against Goldy, she secured minimal top time and Goldy scrambled out immediately. For a fighter whose best weapon is the armbar from bottom position, her inability to dictate where fights take place is crippling.

Power striking is non-existent. Zero knockdowns in her UFC career, zero KO victories ever. She lands 4.56 significant strikes per minute at 50.87% accuracy, but none of it threatens finishes. Against Lemos, she absorbed a knockdown from a single right hand. Her negative significant striking impact differential (-16.0) shows she's taking more damage than she's giving. When forced to win on the feet, she simply doesn't have the tools.

Size disadvantage at strawweight compounds her issues. At 5'3" with 65" reach, she's undersized even for 115 pounds. Against Lemos (a former bantamweight), the strength and size difference was overwhelming. Against Goldy, she struggled in scrambles. Against Wu Yanan (who missed weight at 129 pounds), the reach disadvantage was visually apparent. Amorim, at 5'3" with 68" reach, will have a three-inch reach advantage and likely similar or superior strength.

Previous Fight Breakdown

These two have never fought before.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This is a grappler vs. grappler matchup where one fighter has world-championship credentials and the other has struggled to implement her ground game in the UFC. Amorim's explosive takedown entries directly counter Mizuki's poor takedown defense (17.65% defense rate). When Amorim shot on Viana within five seconds, Viana had no answer. When she caught Demopoulos' kick, the fight immediately went to the ground. Mizuki's tendency to stay mobile on the outside and throw leg kicks plays directly into Amorim's game—she'll catch a kick or close distance for a double-leg.

Once on the ground, the technical gap is enormous. Amorim's positional control against fellow grapplers like Demopoulos (who has submission skills) showed she can pass guard, advance to mount, take the back, and finish with armbars or RNCs. Mizuki's best weapon is the armbar from bottom position—she threatened Lemos twice with it—but Amorim has defended armbars from Demopoulos and McKenna while securing her own. Amorim's guard passing against Viana was surgical: she sat out of a triangle attempt, immediately moved to back control, and maintained dominance.

Mizuki's clinch control, which worked against Goldy, won't translate here. Amorim's clinch striking against Viana included heavy shoulder pressure and ground-and-pound that opened up submission attempts. When Mizuki pushed Lemos to the cage and battled for head position, Lemos answered with knees and elbows. Amorim's clinch game is more aggressive and submission-oriented.

The striking matchup heavily favors Amorim despite neither being a striker. Amorim's 52% significant striking accuracy and willingness to use strikes to set up takedowns gives her an entry path. Mizuki's 50.87% accuracy and zero knockout power means she can't keep Amorim at distance through threat of damage. When Amorim landed counter right hands against McKenna before jumping guard, it showed she can time entries off striking exchanges.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Round 1: Amorim will likely replicate her recent pattern—minimal feeling-out process, then an explosive takedown within the first 30-60 seconds. Mizuki's 17.65% takedown defense means she'll probably end up on her back quickly. If Mizuki tries leg kicks to maintain distance (as she did against Wu Yanan), Amorim will catch one and drag her down, exactly like she did to Demopoulos.

Ground Phase: Once on the mat, Amorim will pass guard and advance position. Mizuki's best chance is threatening armbars from bottom, but Amorim has defended these from competent grapplers. More likely, Amorim achieves mount or back control within 2-3 minutes. Her recent fights show she locks body triangles, works for RNCs, and if those fail, steps over into mount for arm-triangles or armbars. Mizuki's submission defense hasn't been tested against this level of positional grappling.

Potential Finish: If Amorim secures back control with body triangle (as she did against Viana and Hughes), the RNC becomes inevitable. Mizuki's toughness might extend it past Round 1, but Amorim's recent pattern is first-round submissions. The armbar is also likely—Amorim has finished with it in three of her last four wins. Given Mizuki's tendency to threaten armbars from bottom, a scramble could lead to Amorim reversing position and securing her own armbar, similar to how she finished McKenna after defending the initial guard position.

If It Goes Long: This is Mizuki's only path to victory, but it's unlikely. Amorim's cardio improvements are untested beyond Round 2, but her finishes prevent us from knowing if the Sam Hughes collapse would repeat. Mizuki's cardio looked adequate against Goldy over three rounds, but she wasn't dealing with submission attempts and positional grappling. More likely, Amorim finishes before cardio becomes a factor.

Analysis and Key Points

• Grappling mismatch: Amorim is a multiple-time IBJJF world champion with eight career armbar finishes. Mizuki has zero submission finishes in the UFC and failed to complete takedowns against Wu Yanan and Lemos.

• Takedown defense gap: Mizuki's 17.65% takedown defense vs. Amorim's explosive entries that secured takedowns in seconds against Viana and Demopoulos. This fight likely hits the mat within 60 seconds.

• Recent form disparity: Amorim has four consecutive first-round finishes (three submissions, one TKO). Mizuki has one split decision win in three years, coming off a major ACL injury and showing significant ring rust.

• Size and reach: Amorim has a three-inch reach advantage (68" vs. 65") and likely similar strength despite both being 5'3". Against Lemos, Mizuki was overwhelmed by strength; Amorim won't have that same advantage but won't be at a disadvantage either.

• Finishing ability: Amorim finishes 90% of her wins (10 of 11). Mizuki has zero finishes in the UFC across three fights. When this hits the ground, only one fighter has proven she can end fights.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence comes primarily from the betting odds, which increased the prediction score by 19 points—the largest single factor. Amorim's -480 line reflects the massive skill gap the broader betting market recognizes.

Her significant striking impact differential added 6 points, showing she lands more damaging strikes than she absorbs despite being a grappler. Her recent takedowns attempted per fight (3 points) highlights her aggressive wrestling approach that's improved since the Hughes loss. The recent significant striking impact differential (2 points) confirms she's landing cleaner, more effective strikes in recent bouts.

Negative factors are minimal. TrueSkill decreased the score by 1 point, likely reflecting Mizuki's longer UFC tenure and higher overall experience level (15-6 vs. 10-1). Win streak differential decreased it by 1 point—Mizuki's recent win over Goldy versus Amorim's four-fight streak creates less separation than expected. These minor negatives are overwhelmed by the massive odds advantage and Amorim's superior recent performance metrics.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has predicted Amorim three times, going 3-0 with an average confidence score of 0.71. Against Demopoulos (0.72 confidence), she won by first-round submission. Against McKenna (0.68 confidence), first-round submission. Against Ruiz (0.72 confidence), third-round TKO. The model has consistently identified her finishing ability and correctly predicted victories.

For Mizuki, the model predicted her once—the Goldy fight with 0.78 confidence, correctly predicting a decision win. However, that was a split decision where Mizuki showed ring rust and minimal offense. The model hasn't seen Mizuki face a grappler of Amorim's caliber, so this matchup presents new variables.

The model's perfect record on Amorim, combined with her recent finishing streak and Mizuki's struggles against grapplers (see the Lemos fight), suggests high confidence in this prediction.

Conclusion

Amorim finishes this fight in Round 1 or early Round 2. Her explosive takedown entries will put Mizuki on her back within the first minute, and once there, the positional grappling gap is insurmountable. Mizuki's only path—surviving early submissions and dragging Amorim into deep water to test her cardio—requires defensive grappling she hasn't demonstrated against this level of technique. Amorim's four consecutive finishes, all against fighters with grappling backgrounds, prove she can impose her game on anyone at this level. The -480 odds aren't just justified; they might be generous to Mizuki. WolfTicketsAI's prediction of an Amorim victory is as close to certain as MMA gets.