Analysis: Ikram Aliskerov vs JunYong Park

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Ikram Aliskerov to Win

Score: 16
Odds:
Ikram Aliskerov: -265
JunYong Park: +200

Ikram Aliskerov's Breakdown

Aliskerov brings devastating finishing power wrapped in a Combat Sambo pedigree that he's increasingly reluctant to use. His signature weapon is that straight-armed looping overhand—a chopping punch that travels over the shoulder line and crashes down on opponents' temples. Against Andre Muniz in April 2025, he deployed this perfectly when Muniz reached for a jab, dropping him with the overhand before finishing with a jumping knee up the middle as Muniz's hands sat wide like goalposts. That's three first-round KO/TKO finishes in his last four UFC wins.

But here's the contradiction: Aliskerov is a four-time Combat Sambo world champion who refuses to wrestle. Against Muniz—a pure grappler with compromised striking—Aliskerov made zero meaningful takedown attempts across five minutes. He's evolved into a boxer who happens to have elite grappling credentials rather than a mixed martial artist. His jab sets up everything, creating range for that looping overhand or the occasional high kick. When Robert Whittaker blitzed him with unexpected aggression in June 2024, Aliskerov's reactive defense failed—he pulled his knee up for a defensive teep kick, Whittaker feinted to draw it out, then stepped in with a right hand that wobbled him before finishing with an uppercut along the fence.

Against Phil Hawes and Warlley Alves, Aliskerov showed patience in his counter-striking, waiting for opponents to overcommit before unloading. He averages 4.09 knockdowns per fight with 100% takedown defense, but that defensive stat is misleading—he's faced minimal wrestling pressure because opponents respect his sambo background. His striking defense sits at just 41.58%, meaning he absorbs significant volume while hunting for his power shots.

Ikram Aliskerov's Technical Vulnerabilities

Defensive teep kick tells under pressure: When pressured, Aliskerov habitually pulls his knee to his chest for a defensive teep. Whittaker exploited this perfectly in Round 1 by feinting multiple times to establish the pattern, then timing a devastating right hand the third time Aliskerov showed the reaction. This defensive habit is predictable and leaves him momentarily off-balance when opponents recognize it.

Chin-high resets after combinations: Aliskerov frequently resets with his chin exposed after throwing his overhand or combination sequences. Against elite counter-strikers, this creates windows for devastating counters. His 41.58% striking defense reflects this vulnerability—he's hittable when transitioning between offense and defense.

Abandons grappling against inferior wrestlers: His refusal to wrestle Muniz—a fighter with zero takedown threat—reveals either overconfidence in his hands or discomfort implementing his grappling offensively. Against Park's relentless takedown pressure (4.35 attempts per fight), Aliskerov's untested offensive wrestling could become a liability if he can't finish the fight on the feet early.

JunYong Park's Breakdown

"The Iron Turtle" is the definition of grinding persistence. Park's game revolves around pressure boxing that sets up relentless takedown attempts—he averages 4.35 takedown attempts per fight with 42.86% accuracy. His signature sequence is the feinted overhand to double-leg, using the threat of power punches to get opponents' hands high before changing levels. Against Brad Tavares in October 2024, Park used short boxing combinations and body kicks to set up takedowns, holding Tavares down and landing strikes to edge a split decision.

Park's most impressive performance came against Ismail Naurdiev in June 2025, where he won despite being blind in one eye after an illegal knee split his eye in Round 2. The referee deducted two points from Naurdiev—only the second time that's happened in UFC history—but Park would've won anyway. After the foul, Park immediately shifted to wrestling-heavy tactics, securing takedowns while essentially fighting half-blind and dominating Round 3 with ground control and near rear-naked choke attempts.

His submission game is legitimate—0.93 submissions per fight with finishes over Albert Duraev (rear-naked choke Round 2), Denis Tiuliulin (submission Round 1), and Joseph Holmes (choke Round 2). Against Andre Muniz in December 2023, Park showed excellent defensive grappling, keeping his elbows tight to neutralize Muniz's armbar threats and capitalizing when Muniz abandoned position for submissions. He landed damaging ground strikes in the final moments of rounds, though he lost a split decision.

Park's cardio is exceptional—he's won six of his last seven fights by outlasting opponents who fade. His 73-inch reach is three inches shorter than Aliskerov's 76 inches, but Park closes distance effectively through constant forward pressure and clinch work.

JunYong Park's Technical Vulnerabilities

Absorbs heavy volume early: Park allows 3.42 significant strikes per minute while landing 4.59, meaning he takes damage to deliver his offense. Against Naurdiev, he absorbed three-punch combinations that visibly hurt him in Round 1. His "Iron Turtle" nickname reflects his durability, but against Aliskerov's knockout power, walking through fire to land takedowns could end badly. Gregory Rodrigues knocked him out in October 2021 when Park's aggressive takedown pursuit left him open to counters.

Slow starter who relies on opponent fatigue: Park typically loses early rounds while gathering data and waiting for opponents to tire. Against Aliskerov's first-round finishing power (three of his last four UFC wins ended in Round 1), Park's methodical approach could get him starched before he establishes his pace. His tendency to absorb early damage while building momentum is a dangerous gamble against a fighter who hunts for early knockouts.

Defensive gaps when shooting takedowns: When Park commits to takedown entries, he sometimes eats counters. Against Phil Hawes, he absorbed uppercuts when shooting. His 73.53% takedown defense is solid but not elite—he's been taken down and controlled by wrestlers before. More critically, the transition moments when he changes levels create brief windows where his head is exposed to knees or uppercuts.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This fight hinges on whether Park can survive the early storm and drag Aliskerov into deep water. Aliskerov's straight-armed looping overhand is perfectly designed to punish Park's forward-marching pressure style. When Park walks forward with his high guard, he's vulnerable to that chopping punch coming over his shoulder—exactly how Aliskerov finished Muniz.

Park's feinted overhand to double-leg entry could trigger Aliskerov's defensive teep kick habit. If Park recognizes this pattern early (like Whittaker did), he can time his level changes to exploit Aliskerov's reactive defense. But Aliskerov's 100% takedown defense stat—though untested against elite wrestlers—suggests his sambo base gives him confidence in sprawling.

The clinch becomes critical. Park excels at using underhooks to control opponents against the fence, landing short elbows and knees while setting up takedowns. Aliskerov's clinch work against Muniz was minimal and non-committal. If Park can drag Aliskerov into extended clinch exchanges, he neutralizes the knockout power and forces Aliskerov to either wrestle (which he's reluctant to do) or expend energy fighting off position.

Aliskerov's striking defense (41.58%) is exploitable through Park's volume approach. Park doesn't need to land bombs—he needs to land consistently and force Aliskerov to defend takedowns, which opens up his striking. The question is whether Park's chin holds up while he implements this strategy.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds (0-5 minutes): This is Aliskerov's window. He'll establish his jab, look for Park to march forward predictably, then unload that looping overhand when Park enters the pocket. Park's tendency to absorb early damage while gathering information plays directly into Aliskerov's first-round finishing power. If Park survives the initial onslaught, he needs to immediately close distance and initiate clinch work to neutralize the striking threat.

Mid-fight adjustments (5-10 minutes): If the fight reaches Round 2, momentum shifts toward Park. Aliskerov's cardio is untested in extended fights—his recent UFC bouts all ended in Round 1. Park's relentless pressure and takedown attempts will force Aliskerov to work defensively, expending energy sprawling and defending clinch positions. Park should increase his takedown volume here, mixing in body work to slow Aliskerov's movement and set up level changes.

Championship rounds (10-15 minutes): Park's domain if it gets here. His victory over Naurdiev while fighting blind in one eye demonstrates his mental toughness and ability to execute his gameplan under extreme adversity. Aliskerov's reluctance to wrestle becomes a massive liability if he's tired and can't keep Park at range. Park's ground control and submission threats (near rear-naked choke against Naurdiev in Round 3) would dominate a fatigued Aliskerov who's been defending takedowns for ten minutes.

Analysis and Key Points

• Aliskerov's power vs Park's durability: Park has been knocked out once (Rodrigues 2021) but has absorbed heavy shots from Naurdiev, Anders, and others. Aliskerov's looping overhand is a different level of power—it's designed to crash through guards and land on the temple. Park's high-guard defense might not be enough.

• Reach advantage favors Aliskerov: Three-inch reach advantage allows Aliskerov to establish his jab and keep Park at the end of his punches. Park needs to close distance quickly and force clinch exchanges to neutralize this.

• Wrestling credentials vs wrestling application: Aliskerov's Combat Sambo background suggests elite grappling, but he refuses to use it offensively. Park's 4.35 takedown attempts per fight will test whether Aliskerov can maintain his 100% takedown defense against a wrestler who won't stop shooting.

• Cardio disparity: Park has proven he can maintain pace for 15 minutes and thrives in later rounds. Aliskerov's recent fights all ended early—his cardio under sustained pressure is unknown.

• Heuristic warning: Aliskerov knocked out Muniz recently, and Park's aggressive style could lead to the same result. Park's tendency to walk through fire makes him vulnerable to first-round finishes.

Understanding the Prediction

The model heavily favors Aliskerov based on several key factors:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 16 points—the betting market sees Aliskerov as a significant favorite at -265, and the model respects this assessment of his finishing power and recent form.

• Recent Win Percentage added 3 points for Aliskerov's 67% recent win rate compared to Park's identical 67%, but Aliskerov's wins have been more dominant (three first-round finishes).

• Reach contributed 2 points, reflecting Aliskerov's three-inch advantage that allows him to control distance and land his power shots before Park can close the gap.

• Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage added 2 points for Aliskerov, though ironically his 40.07% defense is worse than Park's 59.32%. This suggests the model weighs his offensive output more heavily.

• Striking Defense Percentage decreased the score by 2 points, acknowledging Aliskerov's vulnerability to volume striking—exactly Park's strength.

• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight decreased the score by 1 point, recognizing Park's relentless wrestling pressure as a potential path to victory if he can survive early.

The model sees Aliskerov's knockout power, reach advantage, and recent finishing streak as overwhelming Park's grinding style, but acknowledges Park's wrestling and cardio as legitimate threats if the fight extends.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has been remarkably accurate on both fighters:

Ikram Aliskerov (3-1 predictions): - Correctly predicted his KO/TKO win over Muniz (76% confidence) - Correctly predicted Whittaker would KO/TKO him (59% confidence)—showing the model recognizes when Aliskerov faces elite competition - Correctly predicted his KO/TKO win over Alves (79% confidence)

JunYong Park (7-1 predictions): - Correctly predicted his decision wins over Naurdiev (56%), Tavares (68%), Duraev submission (40%), and others - Only missed on the Muniz fight (56% confidence for Park), where Park lost a split decision despite dominating grappling exchanges

The model has proven reliable on both fighters, particularly in identifying Aliskerov's finishing ability and Park's grinding decision wins. The one miss on Park came in a competitive split decision, suggesting the model slightly underestimated Muniz's submission threats. The correct prediction of Whittaker finishing Aliskerov demonstrates the model recognizes when Aliskerov faces explosive pressure—exactly what Park will attempt to provide, though with less technical striking than Whittaker.

Conclusion

Aliskerov finishes this fight in Round 1 or Park drags him into deep water and grinds out a decision. There's no middle ground. Park's forward-marching pressure style walks directly into Aliskerov's knockout power—that straight-armed looping overhand is designed to punish exactly the kind of high-guard approach Park employs. When Park enters the pocket to set up his takedowns, Aliskerov will be waiting with the same punch that starched Muniz.

But if Park survives the early onslaught—and his "Iron Turtle" durability suggests he might—Aliskerov's reluctance to wrestle becomes a fatal flaw. Park's relentless takedown attempts (4.35 per fight) will force Aliskerov to either engage his sambo credentials or expend massive energy defending. Aliskerov's cardio is untested beyond five minutes, while Park thrives in extended fights where opponents fade.

The betting odds at -265 reflect Aliskerov's finishing power and recent form—three first-round knockouts in his last four UFC wins. Park's path to victory requires surviving the storm, implementing his clinch-heavy wrestling, and drowning Aliskerov in later rounds. It's possible, but unlikely. WolfTicketsAI predicts Aliskerov catches Park with the looping overhand in the first two rounds, continuing his knockout streak and establishing himself as a legitimate middleweight threat.