Analysis: Azat Maksum vs Mitch Raposo

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Azat Maksum to Win

Score: 25
Odds:
Azat Maksum: -340
Mitch Raposo: +250

Azat Maksum's Breakdown

Maksum enters this fight on a rough patch, dropping two straight decisions and sitting at 1-2 in the UFC. But his recent performances tell a more nuanced story than the record suggests. Against Tagir Ulanbekov at UFC Baku, Maksum stuffed all eight takedown attempts from a high-level wrestler and landed three takedowns of his own—a massive improvement over his historical 22% takedown defense. He maintained energy through all three rounds, contradicting his previous fade against Charles Johnson where he lost momentum in the latter half.

His striking game revolves around three core weapons. First is the sharp right hand followed by an immediate defensive weave underneath and to his right, which he used effectively in Round 1 against Ulanbekov before eating counters as the fight progressed. Second is his step-up left knee to the body after creating pressure with his hands, a technique he deployed successfully against Tyson Nam. Third are his versatile front kicks—both lead leg teeps and switch-stance rear leg variations. Against orthodox opponents he turns his knee inward and kicks upward; against southpaws he executes a "twist kick" turning his knee outward. These kicks helped him control distance against Nam and forced Ulanbekov to adjust his entries.

Against Johnson, Maksum's right hand briefly wobbled his opponent in Round 2, showing legitimate power. Against Nam, he opened Round 3 with a stunning right-left combination that damaged Nam's eye. His switch stance to lead hook to body kick sequence creates angles and maintains pressure, though he lands just 2.80 strikes per minute at 23% accuracy—high volume without precision.

The Ulanbekov fight showcased technical evolution. Maksum's takedown defense jumped from 17% historically to 100% in that bout, stuffing attempts through improved base and balance. His cardio held through 15 minutes despite the extended layoff. He landed takedowns at the end of rounds 2 and 3, demonstrating improved timing even if he couldn't capitalize with ground offense.

Azat Maksum's Technical Vulnerabilities

Linear Defensive Movement: Maksum retreats in straight lines when pressured rather than using lateral movement or angles. Against Joaquin Buckley in previous regional fights, opponents drove him backward across the cage by maintaining forward momentum. Johnson exploited this by using constant movement and pressure, backing Maksum against the fence where his kicking game neutralized.

Predictable Counter Patterns: His right hand-to-weave sequence, while technically sound, creates exploitable timing. Against Ulanbekov, he "kept eating stinging right hands on the entry" as Ulanbekov timed counters to his predictable offensive rhythm. In Round 2 against Ulanbekov, the Dagestani fighter "showed high-level striking at one point slipping a jab and landing a clean right hand on Maksum." Johnson similarly disrupted his rhythm with well-timed counters when Maksum attempted to establish his front kicks.

Wide Stance Lead Leg Exposure: Maksum maintains a notably wide stance that exposes his lead leg to inside kicks. When he steps wide to throw his right hand, opponents have a significant window to target the inside of his thigh or shin. Johnson attempted this but didn't fully capitalize. Against Ulanbekov, he absorbed 1.40 leg kicks per minute, though the Dagestani fighter focused more on boxing exchanges. His 51-52% striking defense percentage suggests consistent vulnerability to these attacks.

Mitch Raposo's Breakdown

Raposo enters 0-2 in the UFC with concerning performances against both Andre Lima and Sumudaerji. The Sumudaerji fight exposed catastrophic flaws—despite landing six takedowns and accumulating over four minutes of control time, Raposo landed just nine significant strikes across 15 minutes. He was outlanded 45-9 in significant strikes, winning one round on a single judge's controversial scorecard after landing two significant strikes in that frame.

Pre-UFC, Raposo finished three straight fights by KO/TKO, showcasing clean boxing and a precise overhand right. His striking background involves throwing right overhands or left-right hooks off in-and-out movement with useful feints. Against Lima, he employed his signature overhand right but became over-reliant on it, leading to over-aggression and exhaustion. Lima's Muay Thai background allowed him to counter Raposo's striking-heavy game plan with well-timed combinations.

His wrestling shows persistent effort but poor execution. Against Sumudaerji, he attempted 19 takedowns across three rounds, landing six at 32% accuracy—but produced zero offense from top position. In Round 1 he "attempted a double leg takedown, but Sumudaerji defended it, and Raposo thought about trying to take the back, but bailed on it." When he did secure takedowns, "Sumudaerji was able to get up quickly and avoid taking any real damage, often landing the only strikes in the clinch exchanges after he worked back to his feet."

His best moment came early in Round 1 against Sumudaerji when he "came out focused putting on a combo ending with a slick right hand Sumudareji did not see coming." He also showed good reactive timing, capitalizing when "Sumudaerji tried a spinning heel kick that Raposo timed well and shot in for a takedown." But these flashes couldn't sustain 15 minutes of competitive action.

At 5'5" with 64" reach, Raposo faces physical disadvantages against most flyweights. Against Sumudaerji's 5'8" frame and 72" reach, the 8-inch reach gap prevented effective striking engagement. His recent stats paint a bleak picture: 0.00 recent win percentage, landing just 1.07 significant strikes per minute at 25% accuracy while absorbing 0.68 head strikes per minute. His recent striking defense dropped to 30%, down from 48% historically.

Mitch Raposo's Technical Vulnerabilities

Complete Absence of Ground Offense: Raposo's most glaring weakness is his inability to generate any offense from top position. Against Sumudaerji, over four minutes of control produced nine total significant strikes—catastrophic at the UFC level. He showed zero submission threats despite multiple takedowns against an opponent who's lost six fights via submission. His ground-and-pound is non-existent; he can't create space to generate power or transition between positional control and offensive strikes.

One-Dimensional Predictability: Against Sumudaerji, "Raposo's game plan relied heavily on his wrestling ability" despite his recent KO/TKO streak suggesting striking is his most developed weapon. He abandoned his strengths for a wrestling-heavy approach that yielded no results. The fight ended with "Raposo still looking for a takedown, symbolizing his one-dimensional approach throughout." When opponents stuff his initial entries, he has no backup plan—he just shoots again without setup or variation.

Striking Range Management Against Length: The 8-inch reach disadvantage against Sumudaerji prevented Raposo from closing distance safely. He "struggles the most against bigger wrestlers," and while Maksum isn't a wrestler, his 70" reach gives him a 6-inch advantage. Raposo's overhand right requires him to close distance aggressively, leaving him exposed to counters. Against Lima's Muay Thai, his "reliance on his overhand right led to instances of over-aggression, which Lima exploited with his well-timed strikes." Maksum's sharp right hand and front kicks will create similar problems.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Maksum's front kicks and reach advantage directly exploit Raposo's inability to manage range against longer fighters. Raposo landed just 0.03 leg kicks per minute and 0.93 head strikes per minute in his UFC run—he has no tools to close the 6-inch reach gap safely. When he does close distance, Maksum's right hand-to-weave sequence will catch him on entries, just as Lima and Sumudaerji did.

Raposo's wrestling presents his only theoretical path to victory, but the matchup favors Maksum heavily. Raposo attempts 10.5 takedowns per fight at 33% accuracy historically, but against Sumudaerji that dropped to 32% with zero damage from top position. Maksum just stuffed all eight takedown attempts from Tagir Ulanbekov—a far superior wrestler to Raposo. Even if Raposo secures takedowns, his complete absence of ground offense means Maksum can simply stand up, as Sumudaerji did repeatedly.

Maksum's switch stance to lead hook to body kick sequence will confuse Raposo's entries. Against Nam, this combination disrupted takedown timing and created openings for counters. Raposo's predictable double leg entries—which he "bailed on" against Sumudaerji when they didn't immediately work—won't threaten a fighter who just neutralized Ulanbekov's chain wrestling.

The striking differential is stark. Maksum lands 3.24 significant strikes per minute at 29% accuracy; Raposo lands 1.07 at 25% accuracy with 30% striking defense. Maksum will outlanding him 3-to-1 minimum. Raposo's overhand right—his only proven weapon—requires closing distance through Maksum's front kick range, then past his jab, then surviving the right hand counter. That's a low-percentage path against a fighter with 52% striking defense who just went 15 minutes with a ranked opponent.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Maksum establishes his front kicks immediately, as he did against Ulanbekov and Nam. Raposo attempts early takedowns but eats knees and right hands on entries, just as he did when Sumudaerji "landed the only strikes in the clinch exchanges." Maksum's jab and body kicks accumulate damage while Raposo burns energy on failed wrestling attempts. By the end of Round 1, Maksum is ahead on volume and Raposo is already showing frustration.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: Raposo abandons his wrestling after 5-6 failed attempts and tries to engage in striking exchanges. This plays directly into Maksum's hands. Maksum's switch stance combinations and front kicks maintain distance while Raposo's overhand right becomes increasingly desperate. Similar to Round 2 against Sumudaerji, Raposo lands minimal offense—maybe 2-3 significant strikes—while Maksum piles up volume. If Raposo does secure a takedown, Maksum stands up within 30 seconds, as Sumudaerji did repeatedly.

Championship Rounds: Raposo's cardio deteriorates under the pressure of failed takedowns and accumulated striking damage. Against Sumudaerji, he was still shooting desperately at the final bell despite 15 minutes of futility. Maksum, who maintained energy through three rounds against Ulanbekov despite an extended layoff, increases his output. His right-left combination that damaged Nam's eye in Round 3 finds a tired, defensively compromised Raposo. Maksum potentially secures a late takedown and rides out the decision, or catches Raposo with a finish as he shoots a desperation takedown with his chin exposed.

Analysis and Key Points

• Reach and Range Dominance: Maksum's 70" reach vs Raposo's 64" creates a 6-inch advantage. Raposo struggled massively against Sumudaerji's 8-inch reach advantage, landing just 9 significant strikes in 15 minutes. Maksum's front kicks and jab will keep Raposo at bay.

• Wrestling Neutralization: Maksum just stuffed 8/8 takedowns from Tagir Ulanbekov, a far superior wrestler to Raposo. Even when Raposo landed 6 takedowns against Sumudaerji, he produced zero offense and Sumudaerji stood up immediately. Maksum will replicate this defensive success.

• Striking Output Differential: Maksum lands 3.24 significant strikes per minute; Raposo lands 1.07. In recent form, Maksum landed 2.79 while Raposo dropped to 1.07. Expect a 40-15 type striking advantage for Maksum across three rounds.

• Cardio and Momentum: Maksum maintained energy through 15 minutes against Ulanbekov despite a layoff. Raposo gassed shooting 19 failed takedowns against Sumudaerji. The more Raposo wrestles unsuccessfully, the more Maksum's striking accumulates.

• Finishing Instinct: Raposo has zero knockdowns, zero submissions in the UFC. Maksum has 0.33 knockdowns per fight and 0.33 submissions per fight—not elite, but he's shown finishing ability. If Raposo is hurt, he has no proven recovery ability.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's 25-point confidence in Maksum is driven primarily by the odds, which account for +17 points. The betting market correctly identifies this as a significant mismatch. Raposo's recent takedowns attempted per fight (+4) actually helps Maksum's prediction because high takedown volume without success drains cardio and creates counter opportunities—exactly what happened against Sumudaerji.

Maksum's recent win percentage (+2), reach advantage (+2), and recent significant striking defense percentage (+2) all contribute to the model's confidence. His 52% striking defense and 70" reach directly counter Raposo's limited offensive tools. The significant striking impact differential (+1), TrueSkill (+1), and striking impact differential (+1) reflect Maksum's superior overall skill level despite his recent losses.

Raposo's statistical profile works against him. His 0.00 recent win percentage, 1.07 significant strikes landed per minute, and 30% recent striking defense percentage paint a picture of a fighter declining rapidly. His 33% takedown accuracy with zero ground offense means his wrestling volume actually hurts his chances—it's empty calories that drain energy without producing results.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI correctly predicted Maksum's loss to Ulanbekov with 72% confidence, showing the model accurately assesses his skill level against elite competition. It incorrectly predicted Maksum to beat Charles Johnson with 66% confidence—a reminder that Maksum can lose to well-rounded opponents who pressure him effectively.

For Raposo, the model correctly predicted his loss to Sumudaerji with 70% confidence, accurately identifying his limitations against even struggling opponents. The model has never predicted a Raposo win, suggesting it recognizes his UFC-level deficiencies.

The model's perfect 2-0 record on these fighters' recent fights (both losses) shows it understands their current trajectories. The 25-point confidence here is lower than the Ulanbekov or Sumudaerji predictions, likely because Maksum's recent losses create some uncertainty. But Raposo's complete absence of UFC success makes this a clearer prediction than the numbers suggest.

Conclusion

Maksum takes this fight by clear decision or late finish. Raposo has no path to victory—his wrestling can't threaten a fighter who just neutralized Ulanbekov, his striking can't overcome a 6-inch reach disadvantage, and his cardio won't hold up under the pressure of failed takedowns and accumulated damage. Maksum's front kicks, right hand, and improved takedown defense shut down everything Raposo does well. Expect Maksum to outlanding Raposo 3-to-1 in significant strikes while stuffing 80% of takedown attempts, cruising to a 30-27 decision or catching a desperate Raposo with a finish in Round 3. WolfTicketsAI's pick of Maksum is rock solid—this is a showcase fight for the Kazakhstani to get back in the win column against an overmatched opponent.