Analysis: Alexander Volkov vs Jailton Almeida

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jailton Almeida to Win

Score: 9
Odds:
Alexander Volkov: +172
Jailton Almeida: -225

Alexander Volkov's Breakdown

Volkov brings a technical striking game built around his 80-inch reach and patient boxing. Against Ciryl Gane in December 2024, he systematically used oblique kicks and teeps to disrupt Gane's explosive counter-striking, preventing Gane from launching jumping knees by straightening his lead leg at critical moments. This tactical discipline allowed Volkov to follow with clean 1-2 combinations, pushing Gane to the fence repeatedly across Rounds 1-2.

His body kicks remain a primary weapon—against Sergei Pavlovich in June 2024, Volkov landed punishing body kicks that wore down the aggressive Russian over three rounds. The jab-to-body-kick sequence keeps opponents at distance while accumulating damage. Against Tai Tuivasa in September 2023, Volkov controlled range with kicks and combinations before transitioning to an Ezekiel Choke in Round 2, showcasing his underrated submission threat when fights hit the mat.

Volkov's recent evolution shows improved takedown defense (73% defense rate) and better clinch control. Against Alexandr Romanov in March 2023, he stuffed takedown attempts and punished failed entries with brutal ground-and-pound, securing a first-round TKO. His striking accuracy sits at 57%, with 5.13 significant strikes landed per minute—volume that accumulates over championship rounds.

Alexander Volkov's Technical Vulnerabilities

Susceptibility to Relentless Pressure Grapplers: Volkov's entire system collapses when opponents systematically breach his striking perimeter. Against Tom Aspinall in March 2022, Aspinall closed distance aggressively, secured an early takedown, and transitioned to a straight armbar at 3:45 of Round 1. Volkov showed minimal scrambling ability and couldn't escape once Aspinall established top control. His 35% takedown defense against elite wrestlers reveals a critical gap.

Predictable Range Management Patterns: While his oblique kicks and teeps effectively maintain distance, they telegraph defensive intentions. Against Curtis Blaydes in June 2020, Blaydes timed entries around these range-keeping tools, though Volkov's body kicks eventually turned the tide. Opponents willing to absorb leg contact while diving for takedowns can exploit this predictability—the teeps lack finishing power and become readable over extended exchanges.

Limited Scrambling and Bottom Position Game: When taken down, Volkov relies on getting back to his feet rather than working from guard. Against Derrick Lewis in October 2018, despite landing 121 significant strikes, Volkov showed vulnerability in scrambles. His linear movement patterns and lack of sophisticated pivot work mean once his range is compromised, he struggles to re-establish optimal distance without resetting completely.

Jailton Almeida's Breakdown

Almeida operates as a grappling specialist who converts every exchange into ground dominance. His signature Lucas Leite-style half guard sweep appeared against both Serghei Spivac and Derrick Lewis—when taken down to bottom half guard, Almeida deliberately opens his guard, sits up on the underhook, pulls opponents forward, and executes powerful sweeps directly to mount. This bypasses multiple positional stages and immediately establishes control.

Against Spivac in January 2025, Almeida absorbed a judo throw but immediately swept to mount. When Spivac executed the belly-up back escape (grabbing Almeida's hand during the bridge-and-roll), Almeida adapted by landing heavy strikes in the ensuing scramble, securing a first-round TKO. This marked evolution—previous fights saw Almeida maintain control without finishing via strikes, but he's now integrating ground-and-pound effectively.

His takedown volume is relentless: 6.58 takedowns per fight on 10.96 attempts, with 60% accuracy. Against Derrick Lewis in November 2023, Almeida secured takedowns repeatedly through chain wrestling, controlling 84% of fight time over five rounds. His butterfly guard sweeps complement the half guard system—against Spivac, when top position was achieved in closed guard, Almeida opened his guard, established butterfly hooks, and swept immediately.

Almeida's 91.67% recent takedown defense means opponents rarely take him down, and when they do, his sweep game activates. He averages 2.44 submissions per fight with elite positional control from mount and back positions.

Jailton Almeida's Technical Vulnerabilities

Back Exposure During Mount Escapes: When mounted, Almeida's defensive reactions create exploitable patterns. Both Lewis and Spivac successfully executed the bridge-and-roll escape where they grab Almeida's hand during the roll, pull it across their body, and continue rolling until both fighters are supine with Almeida forced onto their back. While Almeida typically recovers, this technique consistently neutralizes his top pressure and creates hand-fighting exchanges rather than allowing sustained ground-and-pound.

Predictable Takedown Entries: Almeida frequently initiates with a front kick to the head followed by a diving double-leg takedown. Against Shamil Abdurakhimov in January 2023, Abdurakhimov read this pattern and landed a counter right hand that momentarily troubled Almeida in Round 1. His diving technique—wrapping both legs from his knees—is effective but telegraphed, creating counter-striking opportunities for sharp opponents.

Limited Striking Defense in Transitions: Against Curtis Blaydes in March 2024, Almeida's minimal striking defense during scrambles was exposed. Blaydes landed a second-round KO/TKO by timing strikes during Almeida's entries. His 33% striking defense percentage and tendency to absorb 0.78 head strikes per minute show vulnerability when forced to exchange standing. Almeida's striking primarily serves to set up grappling rather than functioning as a standalone threat.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup pits Volkov's technical distance striking against Almeida's relentless grappling pressure—and the stylistic dynamics heavily favor the grappler.

Volkov's Oblique Kicks vs Almeida's Diving Entries: Volkov's primary defensive tool—the oblique kick and teep to maintain range—becomes less effective against Almeida's willingness to dive through strikes. Unlike Gane, who needed clean entries for explosive techniques, Almeida accepts contact while securing leg grabs. His diving double-leg from the knees means Volkov's leg kicks may land but won't prevent the takedown completion. Against Rozenstruik in May 2023, Almeida absorbed strikes while wrapping both legs and bundling Rozenstruik to the canvas in Round 1.

Volkov's Takedown Defense vs Almeida's Chain Wrestling: Volkov's 35% takedown defense against elite wrestlers is catastrophic against Almeida's 6.58 takedowns per fight. Even when Volkov stuffs initial attempts, Almeida's chain wrestling—transitioning from double-leg to single-leg to clinch position—eventually secures the takedown. Against Romanov, Volkov successfully defended early attempts, but Almeida's volume is far higher (10.96 attempts per fight vs Romanov's approach).

Bottom Position Nightmare: If Volkov gets taken down, his limited bottom game faces Almeida's elite guard passing and positional advancement. Volkov lacks the sweep systems or submission threats to threaten from bottom—against Aspinall, he couldn't escape half guard before the armbar finished him. Almeida's methodical passing from half guard to mount means Volkov will face extended control time and accumulating damage.

Striking Exchanges Favor Volkov—But Won't Happen: In pure striking, Volkov's 57% accuracy and 5.13 significant strikes per minute outclass Almeida's limited stand-up game. But Almeida's 91.67% recent takedown defense means he controls when grappling exchanges occur. The fight won't remain standing long enough for Volkov's volume striking to accumulate meaningful damage.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Round (0-5 minutes): Almeida pressures immediately with front kicks and diving takedowns. Volkov attempts to establish range with oblique kicks and jabs, but Almeida's willingness to dive through strikes likely secures an early takedown. Once on the mat, Almeida passes to half guard and begins working toward mount. Volkov's energy expenditure defending sweeps and positional advances drains his gas tank.

Mid-Fight Adjustments (5-10 minutes): If Volkov survives the first round, he'll attempt to increase output and land body kicks to slow Almeida's pace. However, Almeida's cardio remains strong—he controlled Lewis for 25 minutes. Volkov's defensive wrestling fatigues under repeated takedown attempts. Almeida likely secures another takedown and advances to mount, where Volkov's limited bottom game offers minimal escape routes.

Championship Rounds (10-15 minutes): Volkov's cardio historically holds up, but defending Almeida's grappling for extended periods taxes even durable heavyweights. Almeida's positional control accumulates damage through ground-and-pound or submission threats. Volkov's striking accuracy may remain, but opportunities to land become scarce as Almeida controls cage positioning and initiates clinch exchanges that lead to takedowns.

The most likely finish comes via submission in Rounds 2-3 as Almeida advances from mount to back control or locks in a choke. If the fight reaches later rounds, Almeida's control time leads to a dominant decision.

Analysis and Key Points

• Grappling Mismatch: Almeida's 6.58 takedowns per fight vs Volkov's 35% defense creates an insurmountable gap. Volkov's striking won't materialize if he's defending takedowns constantly.

• Stylistic Nightmare: Volkov's success against Gane came from neutralizing explosive entries. Almeida doesn't need explosive entries—he grinds through defenses with volume and chain wrestling.

• Historical Precedent: Volkov's losses to Aspinall (submission, Round 1) and struggles against Blaydes' wrestling show his vulnerability to elite grapplers. Almeida represents the most dangerous grappling threat Volkov has faced.

• Limited Path to Victory for Volkov: He needs a knockout in early exchanges before Almeida secures takedowns. His 0.28 knockdowns per fight and Almeida's durability (never knocked down in UFC) make this unlikely.

• Almeida's Finish Rate: 2.44 submissions per fight means he doesn't just control—he finishes. Volkov's limited submission defense (caught by Aspinall's armbar) makes him vulnerable.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence stems from clear statistical advantages favoring Almeida:

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 12 points—the betting market recognizes Almeida's dominance, but the model sees even clearer advantages.

• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight decreased the score by 5 points—Almeida's volume (12.55 recent attempts) vs Volkov's defense creates overwhelming pressure.

• Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 4 points—Almeida's 44% significant striking defense is adequate to survive early exchanges before securing takedowns.

• TrueSkill increased the score by 3 points—Almeida's 38.39 Mu rating vs Volkov's 35.88 reflects superior overall performance against comparable competition.

• Recent Win Percentage increased the score by 3 points—Almeida's 67% recent win rate (with the only loss to Blaydes) vs Volkov's 67% shows comparable recent form, but Almeida's wins came via dominant finishes.

The model identifies this as a grappler vs striker matchup where the grappler's takedown volume and control overwhelm the striker's defensive limitations.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI holds a strong 6-1 record predicting Volkov, with the lone miss coming against Pavlovich (predicted Pavlovich to win, but Volkov won via decision). The model correctly predicted Volkov's wins over Tuivasa, Romanov, and Rozenstruik, plus his losses to Gane and Aspinall. This demonstrates reliable reads on Volkov's capabilities.

For Almeida, the model is 6-1, with the only miss against Blaydes (predicted Blaydes correctly). The model accurately predicted Almeida's wins over Spivac, Romanov, Lewis, Rozenstruik, Abdurakhimov, and Porter—all dominant grappling performances. This track record shows the model recognizes when Almeida's grappling creates insurmountable advantages.

The model's historical accuracy with both fighters—particularly in identifying grappling-heavy outcomes for Almeida and Volkov's vulnerability to elite wrestlers—adds confidence to this prediction.

Conclusion

Jailton Almeida finishes Alexander Volkov via submission in Round 2. Volkov's technical striking and range management won't materialize against Almeida's relentless takedown pressure and elite positional grappling. The stylistic matchup heavily favors the grappler—Volkov's 35% takedown defense can't withstand Almeida's 10.96 attempts per fight, and his limited bottom game offers no escape once Almeida secures top position. Expect Almeida to weather early striking exchanges, secure takedowns through volume and chain wrestling, advance to mount, and finish with a choke or armbar as Volkov's defensive options evaporate under sustained pressure.