Analysis: Aleksandar Rakic vs Azamat Murzakanov

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Aleksandar Rakic to Win

Score: 1.0
Odds:
Aleksandar Rakic: -106
Azamat Murzakanov: -120

Aleksandar Rakic's Breakdown

Rakic enters this fight on a brutal three-fight skid, losing to Ankalaev, Prochazka, and Blachowicz—all via stoppage or decision. The pattern is clear: when opponents refuse to respect his range and push forward, his entire game collapses.

His signature weapon remains the right low kick, thrown with proper mechanics but increasingly ineffective against disciplined opponents. Against Ankalaev, he landed these kicks cleanly but generated zero accumulated damage or tactical adjustments from his opponent. That fight exposed Rakic's fundamental problem—technical soundness without offensive ambition produces stagnation.

Against Prochazka, Rakic's measured kickboxing met chaos and lost. Prochazka's relentless forward pressure disrupted Rakic's rhythm until a knee injury ended the bout in Round 2. The Blachowicz fight followed the same script: Rakic retreated under pressure, putting excessive weight on his back leg while throwing calf kicks, which contributed to another knee injury stoppage in Round 3.

When his low kicks fail to create openings, Rakic has no secondary plan. He doesn't wrestle offensively. His hand combinations rarely progress beyond jab-cross sequences. He maintains distance through backward movement rather than sophisticated head movement or parries, ceding initiative to anyone willing to walk through his limited offense.

His reach advantage (78 inches) should be a weapon, but he uses it passively—to maintain space rather than create offense. Against Thiago Santos, he showed more varied striking and won a decision, but that was four years ago. Recent performances show a fighter stuck in technical stasis.

Aleksandar Rakic's Technical Vulnerabilities

Passivity Under Sustained Pressure: Rakic's defensive system requires space to retreat into. Against Ankalaev, when his opponent simply refused to give him opportunities by maintaining patient defense, Rakic generated nothing. Against Prochazka and Blachowicz, when opponents walked through his low kicks with sustained pressure, his upright stance and limited inside-fighting repertoire left him defenseless. He lacks clinch entries, upper-body volume, or wrestling threats to disrupt pressure fighters.

One-Dimensional Offensive Output: The right low kick becomes predictable across extended sequences. In the Ankalaev fight, even clean connections failed to force adjustments because Rakic threw them in isolation without setups or follow-up combinations. His hand striking serves as range maintenance rather than genuine threat. Against Blachowicz, his predictable calf kicks were checked effectively while he continuously retreated, eventually leading to catastrophic knee failure.

Catastrophic Response to Knee Injuries: Rakic has now suffered knee injuries in two consecutive fights (Prochazka Round 2, Blachowicz Round 3). His tendency to retreat while throwing leg kicks, putting excessive weight on his back leg, creates biomechanical stress that has proven disastrous. This pattern suggests either poor conditioning, technical flaws in his kicking mechanics under pressure, or both.

Azamat Murzakanov's Breakdown

Murzakanov brings an undefeated 15-0 record with genuine finishing power—1.54 knockdowns per fight tells the story. His recent UFC run shows a power puncher evolving into a more complete striker.

His signature technique is the overhand right thrown with full commitment, often requiring a stance adjustment afterward to recover balance. Against Menifield in Round 2, this punch secured the knockout. Against Ribeiro, he landed it clean in Round 1 for another finish. But he's added layers: a devastating left hook counter (which turned Devin Clark's head "right around" when Clark kicked from too close), a wide left hook to the body, and improved jab work when switching to orthodox.

Against Jacoby, Murzakanov showed tactical patience, waiting for openings rather than forcing his overhand. He invested in body work throughout, diminishing Jacoby's mobility and creating late-fight opportunities. Against Menifield, he demonstrated evolving versatility—fighting extended periods in orthodox with effective jab work, then switching to southpaw to unleash power combinations.

His wrestling is functional: 0.62 takedowns per fight with head-outside single legs timed off opponents' right hands. Against Menifield in Round 1, he used front kicks and body kicks to set up distance before timing a perfect single leg when Menifield threw his right hand.

Murzakanov's 71-inch reach is significantly shorter than Rakic's 78 inches, but he's built his game around closing distance through controlled cage pressure. Against Clark, he methodically cut off the cage, forcing Clark to either circle (where Murzakanov cut him off) or escape through his power range. When Clark attempted to bounce forward with a jab from the fence, Murzakanov split his guard with a counter jab, dropping him before finishing with a head kick in Round 3.

Azamat Murzakanov's Technical Vulnerabilities

Overcommitment on Power Shots: When Murzakanov throws his overhand right, he leans his shoulders well forward of his hips, requiring a stance adjustment to recover balance. Against Nchukwi, he was caught with counters when falling short with this technique. If he misses, he's momentarily out of position defensively with no immediate "insurance" movement to protect against counters.

Slow Starts and Activity Management: Murzakanov demonstrates periods of low offensive output, particularly in early rounds. Against Clark, he allowed his opponent to dictate much of Round 1 before finding his rhythm. Against Jacoby, he showed patience that bordered on inactivity early. This creates scoreable moments for opponents and could be problematic if Rakic establishes his range game early.

Limited Defensive Footwork: Murzakanov's defensive system relies on a shell guard and counter hooks rather than sophisticated lateral movement or head movement. When opponents maintain distance effectively, he must walk through their offense to close the gap. Against rangier opponents who can maintain discipline, his path to landing power shots becomes narrower and more predictable.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a classic range vs. power dynamic, but with critical context: Rakic's range game has proven ineffective against anyone who doesn't cooperate by advancing carelessly.

Murzakanov's Overhand Right vs. Rakic's Upright Stance: Rakic's upright, squared posture provides clean targets for Murzakanov's committed overhand. When Rakic retreats—his primary defensive mechanism—he moves in straight lines backward, creating perfect opportunities for Murzakanov to time his power shot. Against Blachowicz, Rakic's continuous backward movement while throwing leg kicks led to disaster. Murzakanov's willingness to walk forward through strikes to land his overhand directly threatens Rakic's entire defensive scheme.

Rakic's Low Kicks vs. Murzakanov's Forward Pressure: Murzakanov absorbs 0.86 leg kicks per minute but has shown no defensive degradation from this accumulation. Against Menifield, he walked through leg kicks while maintaining his pressure. Rakic's low kicks, even when landed cleanly, haven't forced adjustments from disciplined opponents (see: Ankalaev). If Murzakanov simply accepts these kicks while advancing, Rakic has no backup plan.

Reach Differential (78" vs 71"): Rakic's seven-inch reach advantage should theoretically allow him to pot-shot Murzakanov from distance. But Rakic uses his reach passively—to maintain space, not create offense. Murzakanov has built his entire game around closing distance against rangier opponents through controlled cage cutting. Against Clark (75" reach), he methodically eliminated escape routes. Rakic's tendency to retreat rather than circle laterally plays directly into Murzakanov's pressure system.

Counter Striking Opportunities: Murzakanov's left hook counter has proven devastating when opponents kick from too close (see: Clark fight). Rakic's low kicks are his primary weapon, and if he throws them while Murzakanov has closed distance, that counter hook becomes a serious threat. Additionally, when Murzakanov overcommits on his overhand and misses, Rakic theoretically has counter opportunities—but his recent fights show a fighter who retreats rather than counters when opponents press forward.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds (1-2): Rakic will attempt to establish his range game with low kicks and maintain distance through backward movement. Murzakanov typically starts slowly, allowing opponents to establish rhythm before he finds his timing. This could allow Rakic to build an early lead if he can land low kicks without Murzakanov closing distance. However, Rakic's recent pattern shows him failing to accumulate meaningful damage even when landing cleanly. If Murzakanov begins his cage-cutting pressure in Round 1, Rakic's historical response has been continuous retreat rather than tactical adjustment.

Mid-Fight Adjustments (Rounds 2-3): This is where Murzakanov typically finds his rhythm. Against Clark, he began reading patterns effectively in Round 2. Against Menifield, Round 2 saw him mixing orthodox and southpaw effectively before securing the finish. If Rakic hasn't established clear control by this phase, Murzakanov's increasing comfort and forward pressure will force Rakic into extended backward movement—the exact scenario that led to knee injuries against both Prochazka and Blachowicz. Rakic has shown zero ability to adjust when his initial gameplan fails; he simply continues throwing low kicks while retreating.

Championship Rounds (4-5 if applicable): This is a three-round fight, but if it were longer, Rakic's cardio under pressure is questionable. His technical execution doesn't degrade, but his offensive output drops when opponents refuse to give him space. Murzakanov has shown consistent power into later rounds (Clark knockout in Round 3, Menifield knockout in Round 2), suggesting his explosive capabilities don't diminish significantly.

Analysis and Key Points

• Rakic's Three-Fight Losing Streak: All three losses came against opponents who either pressured consistently (Prochazka, Blachowicz) or refused to give him opportunities through patient defense (Ankalaev). Murzakanov's style—controlled forward pressure with explosive power—combines both threats.

• Knee Injury History: Rakic has suffered knee injuries in consecutive fights, both occurring while retreating under pressure. His tendency to put weight on his back leg while throwing kicks under duress creates biomechanical vulnerability that Murzakanov's forward pressure will test again.

• Murzakanov's Finishing Power: 1.54 knockdowns per fight with recent finishes over Menifield (Round 2 KO), Ribeiro (Round 1 KO), and Clark (Round 3 KO). His overhand right and left hook counter are legitimate finishing threats that Rakic's upright stance and backward movement make accessible.

• Reach Advantage Negated: Rakic's seven-inch reach advantage means nothing if he uses it passively. Against Ankalaev (75" reach), the reach advantage produced zero offensive success. Murzakanov has proven capable of closing distance against rangier opponents through disciplined cage cutting.

• Technical Stagnation vs. Evolution: Rakic shows the same approach fight after fight with zero adaptation. Murzakanov has demonstrably evolved—adding jab work, improving stance switching, developing his left hand, and showing tactical patience. One fighter is learning; the other is stuck.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence score of 1.0 for Rakic reflects several statistical factors, but the fight-specific context tells a more complex story:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 4.0: Rakic is the slight betting favorite (-106 vs -120), which the model interprets as meaningful. However, this likely reflects name recognition rather than recent form.

• Reach increased the score by 2.0: Rakic's 78-inch reach vs. Murzakanov's 71 inches creates a statistical advantage, but Rakic's passive use of this reach has proven ineffective in recent fights.

• Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 2.0: Rakic is 0-3 in his last three fights while Murzakanov is 5-0 in the UFC. This significant recent form disparity works against Rakic.

• Striking Defense Percentage decreased the score by 2.0: Rakic's 41.5% striking defense is concerning, especially against a power puncher. Murzakanov's 61.8% significant striking defense percentage is notably superior.

• TrueSkill increased the score by 1.0: Rakic's historical skill rating (Mu: 34.57) edges Murzakanov's (Mu: 36.30), though Murzakanov's higher sigma (4.82 vs 3.16) reflects his shorter UFC tenure with more uncertainty.

• Striking Impact Differential increased by 1.0: Rakic's +32.3 differential vs. Murzakanov's +11.6 suggests Rakic historically lands more significant strikes, but this doesn't account for his recent inability to generate meaningful offense.

• Recent Striking Impact Differential decreased by 1.0: Rakic's recent form (+34.9) is actually worse than his career average when accounting for his losses, while Murzakanov's recent form (+8.6) reflects his finishing ability rather than point-fighting volume.

The model sees Rakic's historical credentials and physical advantages but underweights his recent performance collapse and stylistic vulnerability to pressure fighters with finishing power.

Past Model Performance

Rakic's Prediction History: WolfTicketsAI has struggled with Rakic recently. It correctly predicted Ankalaev to win (score 0.77), but incorrectly predicted Rakic to beat both Prochazka (score 0.53) and Blachowicz (score 0.36). The model has overestimated Rakic's ability to implement his gameplan against pressure fighters, going 1-2 in his last three predictions.

Murzakanov's Prediction History: The model has been nearly perfect on Murzakanov, correctly predicting his wins over Ribeiro (score 0.79), Menifield (score 0.68), and Clark (score 0.37). It only missed on the Jacoby fight, where it predicted Jacoby to win (score 0.72) but Murzakanov secured a decision. The model is 3-1 on Murzakanov predictions, showing strong calibration on his finishing ability.

This historical performance suggests the model understands Murzakanov's capabilities better than Rakic's current form. The 1.0 confidence score for Rakic appears to be an overcorrection based on historical data that doesn't reflect his recent collapse.

Conclusion

Rakic's technical approach requires opponent cooperation—fighters who advance carelessly into his low kicks or give him space to operate. Murzakanov provides neither. His controlled forward pressure, willingness to absorb leg kicks while closing distance, and devastating power in the overhand right and left hook counter directly threaten every aspect of Rakic's game.

Rakic's three-fight losing streak shows a fighter whose methodical kickboxing collapses under sustained pressure. His knee injuries in consecutive fights suggest biomechanical vulnerability when retreating under duress—exactly the scenario Murzakanov's pressure creates. His zero offensive wrestling and limited combination striking mean he has no backup plan when his range game fails.

Murzakanov's evolution from pure power puncher to more complete striker, combined with his undefeated record and recent finishing streak, makes him the more dangerous fighter despite the model's 1.0 score for Rakic. The seven-inch reach disadvantage means nothing if Murzakanov successfully implements his cage-cutting pressure, and Rakic's historical response to pressure has been continuous retreat—not lateral movement, not wrestling, not tactical adjustment.

WolfTicketsAI predicts Rakic to win, but the fight-specific evidence suggests Murzakanov's pressure game and finishing power pose serious problems for a fighter who hasn't shown the ability to adapt when his initial gameplan fails. Expect Murzakanov to walk through Rakic's low kicks, close distance through controlled cage cutting, and land the overhand right or left hook counter that has finished his last three opponents. Rakic's technical stagnation meets Murzakanov's evolving power game, and recent form suggests the undefeated finisher has the tools to extend Rakic's losing streak to four.