The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
This radar chart shows each fighter's strengths across key fighting dimensions. Each dimension is scored 0-100 based on their percentile ranking within the Welterweight weight class.
Recent Prediction
This prediction includes detailed insights.
Predicted Winner: Punahele Soriano
Weight Class: Welterweight
Final Confidence: 26.4
Value: +20.0%
Reason: Base confidence between 14 and 21, increased by 20%
Value: +10.0%
Reason: Opponent lost by KO/TKO within last 12 months
Weight Change: Staying at usual weight
Weight Change: Staying at usual weight
Score: 20
Odds:
Punahele Soriano: -235
Nikolay Veretennikov: +180
Soriano brings legitimate one-punch knockout power to this welterweight matchup, evidenced by his recent first-round KO of Uros Medic in January. That finish came from an overhand left followed by a right hand that caught Medic retreating in a straight line with his hands down—exactly the defensive error Soriano needs to capitalize on his limited offensive system.
His signature weapon remains that southpaw overhand left, which he's built his entire UFC career around. Against Dusko Todorovic, he landed it repeatedly before finishing the fight at 4:48 of Round 1. When he fought Dalcha Lungiambula, Soriano showed technical evolution by mixing in tighter left hooks and precise counters instead of just winging the overhand, catching Lungiambula with an uppercut that set up the finish.
The wrestling dimension exists but stays dormant. Against Miguel Baeza, Soriano successfully implemented takedowns and landed 164 significant ground strikes—a UFC welterweight record for a single bout. He stuffed Baeza's leg lock attempts and controlled position throughout, showing legitimate grappling ability when he chooses to use it. But that fight remains an outlier. Against Nick Maximov, he got taken down repeatedly via high-crotch entries and spent most of the fight defending position rather than imposing his game.
His jab demonstrates proper mechanics—correct stance, shoulder rotation, clean retraction. Jason Parillo drilled those fundamentals into him at Xtreme Couture. But Soriano abandons everything the moment he throws follow-up strikes. He sprints forward with his chin elevated and hands down, breaking his stance entirely. Roman Kopylov exposed this pattern systematically, pulling away from the overhand left, ducking underneath it, and using a high-elbow guard to spike Soriano's face while advancing. When Soriano's primary weapon gets neutralized, he lacks the technical depth to pivot.
1. Defensive Collapse During Combinations (Kopylov Fight, Round 2)
After establishing his jab, Soriano completely abandons defensive coverage when throwing his right hand or left hook. He sprints forward with his chin up and hands down, creating massive counter-punching windows. Kopylov capitalized on this repeatedly, landing body jabs and left kicks to the liver when Soriano opened up. The finish came when Soriano gassed out chasing the knockout—Kopylov's precise liver shot followed by a flurry ended it. This isn't a momentary lapse but a fundamental gap in his combination mechanics.
2. Predictable Over-Reliance on Overhand Left (Multiple Fights)
Soriano's offensive system revolves almost entirely around one technique. Against Kopelov, this limitation was thoroughly exposed through multiple defensive solutions: pulling away, ducking underneath, high-elbow guard work. When opponents neutralize this single weapon, Soriano demonstrates no meaningful ability to adapt mid-fight or develop alternative offensive pathways. The Medic fight only succeeded because Medic made the exact defensive error (straight-line retreat, hands down) that Soriano's limited system requires.
3. Cardio Deterioration in Later Rounds (Kopylov Fight, Stoltzfus Submission)
Soriano's effectiveness diminishes significantly as fights progress. Against Kopylov, he visibly gassed in Round 2 while chasing the finish, leaving him defenseless for the liver shot. Against Dustin Stoltzfus, he got caught in a rear-naked choke at 4:10 of Round 2 after failing to capitalize on his takedowns and allowing Stoltzfus to escape bad positions. His cardio issues compound his technical limitations—when tired, his already poor defensive habits become catastrophic.
Veretennikov operates as a calculated counter-striker with legitimate finishing power, though his UFC debut has been rocky at 1-2. His recent split decision win over Francisco Prado in July showed both his strengths and glaring weaknesses. In Round 2 of that fight, he dropped Prado with a right hand after being dominated in Round 1's grappling exchanges, demonstrating genuine one-punch power and mental toughness to overcome adversity.
His striking is built around fluid 1-2 combinations with excellent mechanics on his straight punches. Against Austin Vanderford in February, Veretennikov remained composed while Vanderford swung wildly, then executed a perfectly timed counter that staggered his opponent. The finish came when Vanderford overcommitted—Veretennikov simply "tapped his legs and he fell over," showing excellent understanding of weight transfer and balance disruption.
The counter-striking timing is his best attribute. He maintains composure during exchanges, spots openings when opponents overcommit, and capitalizes with precision. His 56% striking accuracy (compared to Soriano's 64%) reflects a more selective approach, waiting for optimal moments rather than constant pressure.
But the grappling defense is a disaster. Against Prado, he got taken down immediately in Round 1 after Prado used a leg kick and right hand setup, dropping straight into side control. Prado dominated positions, went for the back, attempted a triangle, switched to an armbar. Veretennikov slammed his way out—explosive power saved him, not technique. Later in that fight, he jumped a guillotine with no legs in place, gifting Prado top position. In Round 3, Prado landed brutal elbows from mount that busted him up badly.
The spinning attacks are telegraphed and exploitable. Against Prado, Veretennikov repeatedly threw fancy spinning strikes and got slammed every single time. Prado was "all over it," recognizing the pattern and capitalizing consistently. This predictable technique became a roadmap for takedowns.
1. Early Takedown Susceptibility (Prado Fight, Round 1)
Veretennikov got taken down in the opening seconds when Prado used a leg kick then right hand to set up the entry, dropping immediately into side control. His defensive wrestling against striking setups is poor—he doesn't recognize feints or read entries well. Once on his back, his bottom position defense is equally bad. He jumped a desperation guillotine with no legs in place, showing poor submission defense fundamentals. Prado controlled him for extended periods and landed brutal ground-and-pound.
2. Predictable Spinning Attacks (Prado Fight, Rounds 2-3)
Veretennikov threw spinning attacks multiple times against Prado, and every single one resulted in him getting taken down. The pattern became so obvious that Prado was "all over it" each time. This telegraphed technique creates massive takedown opportunities for opponents who can time it. Against a fighter like Soriano who has demonstrated wrestling ability (Baeza fight), these spinning attempts could be disastrous.
3. Championship Round Cardio (Prado Fight, Round 3)
At 35 years old with 18 professional bouts, Veretennikov "seemingly ran out of gas" late in Round 3 against Prado. The wear-and-tear is showing. When fatigued, his defensive posture deteriorates—he drops his hands after combinations and leaves himself exposed. This cardio limitation compounds his grappling vulnerabilities, as he lacks the energy to defend takedowns or escape bad positions late in fights.
This matchup heavily favors Soriano's power striking against Veretennikov's defensive vulnerabilities. Soriano's overhand left—his primary weapon—becomes exponentially more dangerous against an opponent who drops his hands after throwing combinations. Veretennikov's tendency to leave himself exposed during reset phases is exactly the defensive error Soriano has capitalized on throughout his career.
Veretennikov's counter-striking approach requires opponents to overcommit, like Vanderford did with wild swings. But Soriano, despite his technical limitations, maintains enough discipline in his jab to avoid the reckless aggression that Veretennikov needs to land his best counters. Soriano's power-focused approach means he's loading up on single shots rather than creating the extended exchanges where Veretennikov's timing shines.
The grappling dimension could be decisive. Soriano demonstrated legitimate wrestling against Baeza—four takedowns, 164 significant ground strikes, dominant control. Veretennikov's early takedown susceptibility and poor bottom position defense create a clear exploitation path. If Soriano chooses to implement his wrestling (a big "if" given his striking obsession), Veretennikov has shown no ability to defend entries or escape bad positions.
Veretennikov's spinning attacks are a gift. Soriano has wrestling credentials and could easily time takedowns off these telegraphed techniques, just like Prado did repeatedly. Even if Soriano doesn't shoot, the spinning attacks leave Veretennikov off-balance and exposed to Soriano's power left hand.
The reach advantage (74" for Veretennikov vs 72" for Soriano) is minimal and unlikely to factor significantly. Both fighters operate at similar ranges, and Soriano's southpaw stance creates angles that can negate small reach differences.
Early Round (Rounds 1-2): Soriano's knockout power is most dangerous here. He's fresh, loading up on his overhand left, and Veretennikov's defensive lapses after throwing combinations create immediate opportunities. If Veretennikov throws his predictable spinning attacks early, Soriano could capitalize with takedowns or counters. Veretennikov's counter-striking requires patience, but Soriano's measured jab approach may not provide the overcommitted entries Veretennikov needs.
Mid-Fight Adjustments: If the fight reaches Round 2 competitive, Soriano's cardio becomes questionable. He's gassed before (Kopylov, Stoltzfus), and his defensive mechanics deteriorate when tired. However, Veretennikov also shows cardio issues at 35 years old. The question becomes who fades first. Soriano's power remains dangerous even when tired—he dropped Medic in the first round but has shown ability to finish later (Lungiambula in Round 2).
Championship Rounds (Round 3): Both fighters have shown late-round vulnerabilities. Veretennikov "ran out of gas" against Prado in Round 3, and Soriano got submitted by Stoltzfus at 4:10 of Round 2 after cardio failed him. If this fight reaches Round 3, it likely favors whoever can maintain offensive output. Soriano's one-punch power remains a threat regardless of fatigue, while Veretennikov's technical striking requires energy to execute properly.
The model heavily favors Soriano based on several key statistical advantages:
The model accounts for Veretennikov's negative striking differentials (Average Striking Output Differential: -17.33, Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential: -6.08), indicating he consistently gets outstruck and absorbs more damage than he delivers. Soriano's positive differentials (Average Striking Output Differential: +31.56, Significant Striking Impact Differential: +10.22) show he lands more and does more damage.
WolfTicketsAI has struggled with Soriano predictions, going 1-5 on his fights: - Correct: Dalcha Lungiambula (75% confidence, KO/TKO Round 2) - Incorrect: Uros Medic (64% for Medic, Soriano won KO/TKO Round 1), Miguel Baeza (57% for Baeza, Soriano won decision), Dustin Stoltzfus (67% for Soriano, lost submission Round 2), Roman Kopylov (71% for Soriano, lost KO/TKO Round 2), Nick Maximov (65% for Soriano, lost split decision)
The model has been particularly wrong when highly confident in Soriano (71% Kopylov, 67% Stoltzfus), suggesting potential overvaluation of his striking power without accounting for his defensive lapses and cardio issues.
For Veretennikov, the model has limited data—only one prediction on his split decision win over Francisco Prado, where it incorrectly picked Prado at 63% confidence. This suggests the model may not fully capture Veretennikov's ability to overcome adversity and land fight-changing shots.
The 20-point confidence score here is relatively modest compared to the model's past Soriano predictions, suggesting some uncertainty despite the statistical advantages.
Soriano finishes Veretennikov inside two rounds. The path to victory is clear: Veretennikov's defensive lapses after throwing combinations create perfect windows for Soriano's overhand left. When Veretennikov inevitably throws his predictable spinning attacks, Soriano can either time the knockout counter or secure takedowns and dominate on the ground like he did against Baeza. Veretennikov's early takedown susceptibility and poor bottom position defense give Soriano a backup plan if the knockout doesn't materialize immediately. At 35 years old with documented cardio issues, Veretennikov can't afford to let this fight extend—but Soriano's power remains dangerous throughout. The statistical advantages in striking defense, impact differential, and TrueSkill all point to Soriano's superior overall game. Veretennikov's counter-striking requires opponents to overcommit recklessly, but Soriano's measured jab approach won't provide those openings. WolfTicketsAI's pick of Soriano is sound—expect the Hawaiian to land his signature left hand and add another knockout to his highlight reel.
Stat | Punahele Soriano | Nikolay Veretennikov | Weight Class Average | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Main Stats | ||||
Age | 32 | 35 | 33 | |
Height | 71" | 73" | 72" | |
Reach | 72" | 74" | 75" | |
Win Percentage | 73.33% | 68.42% | 78.36% | |
Wins | 12 | 13 | ||
Losses | 4 | 7 | ||
Wins at Weight Class | 2 | 1 | ||
Losses at Weight Class | 0 | 1 | ||
Striking Stats | ||||
Striking Accuracy | 64.07% | 60.74% | 49.40% | |
Significant Striking Accuracy | 56.38% | 51.39% | 44.73% | |
Strikes Landed Per Minute | 8.269 | 4.182 | 5.386 | |
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 5.369 | 2.830 | 4.125 | |
Knockdowns per Fight | 1.176 | 0.000 | 0.585 | |
Striking Impact Differential | 27.11% | -18.00% | 6.41% | |
Significant Striking Impact Differential | 10.22% | -7.33% | 4.73% | |
Striking Output Differential | 31.56% | -17.33% | 9.04% | |
Significant Striking Output Differential | 12.33% | -4.00% | 7.25% | |
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 49.76% | 63.41% | 81.67% | |
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 72.75% | 85.59% | 97.94% | |
Striking Defense Percentage | 48.38% | 41.67% | 49.16% | |
Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
Submissions per Fight | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.513 | |
Takedowns per Fight | 1.176 | 0.765 | 1.340 | |
Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 2.351 | 3.060 | 3.369 | |
Takedown Defense | 163.64% | 45.45% | 71.80% | |
Takedown Accuracy | 50.00% | 25.00% | 35.10% | |
Head Stats | ||||
Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 4.193 | 1.403 | 2.608 | |
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 8.073 | 3.799 | 6.614 | |
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 2.247 | 2.448 | 2.372 | |
Body Stats | ||||
Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.032 | 1.173 | 0.843 | |
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 1.254 | 1.454 | 1.200 | |
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 1.293 | 0.332 | 0.730 | |
Leg Stats | ||||
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.144 | 0.255 | 0.675 | |
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.196 | 0.255 | 0.812 | |
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.627 | 0.612 | 0.645 | |
Clinch Stats | ||||
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.353 | 0.510 | 0.423 | |
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.483 | 0.561 | 0.585 | |
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.510 | 0.153 | 0.384 |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Jan. 11, 2025 | Welterweight | Punahele Soriano | Uros Medic | Punahele Soriano | |
June 8, 2024 | Welterweight | Miguel Baeza | Punahele Soriano | Punahele Soriano | |
Dec. 2, 2023 | Middleweight | Punahele Soriano | Dustin Stoltzfus | Dustin Stoltzfus | |
Jan. 14, 2023 | Middleweight | Punahele Soriano | Roman Kopylov | Roman Kopylov | |
July 16, 2022 | Middleweight | Punahele Soriano | Dalcha Lungiambula | Punahele Soriano | |
Feb. 5, 2022 | Middleweight | Punahele Soriano | Nick Maximov | Nick Maximov | |
July 24, 2021 | Middleweight | Punahele Soriano | Brendan Allen | Brendan Allen | |
Jan. 16, 2021 | Middleweight | Punahele Soriano | Dusko Todorovic | Punahele Soriano | |
Dec. 14, 2019 | Middleweight | Punahele Soriano | Oskar Piechota | Punahele Soriano |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
July 19, 2025 | Welterweight | Francisco Prado | Nikolay Veretennikov | Nikolay Veretennikov | |
Feb. 22, 2025 | Catch Weight | Nikolay Veretennikov | Austin Vanderford | Austin Vanderford | |
Aug. 10, 2024 | Welterweight | Danny Barlow | Nikolay Veretennikov | Danny Barlow |