Analysis: Macy Chiasson vs Yana Santos

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Macy Chiasson to Win

Score: 13
Odds:
Macy Chiasson: -200
Yana Santos: +154

Macy Chiasson's Breakdown

Chiasson enters this bantamweight clash riding momentum from back-to-back finishes before her recent setback against Ketlen Vieira at featherweight. The 5'9" striker has built her game around leveraging her 72-inch reach through a clinch-heavy approach that wears opponents down systematically.

Her signature weapon is the collar tie position, where she snaps heads down and unleashes devastating knees to the body—a technique that broke down Norma Dumont across three rounds in May 2022. Against Dumont, Chiasson's body work accumulated damage that visibly slowed her opponent's movement by Round 3, forcing desperate takedown attempts. That same clinch dominance secured a rear-naked choke against Pannie Kianzad in March 2024, where she transitioned smoothly from cage control to back takes.

Chiasson's striking has evolved beyond simple volume. Against Mayra Bueno Silva in June 2024, she demonstrated patience in managing distance before closing into clinch exchanges, where her height advantage created punishing leverage for short elbows. The fight ended via doctor stoppage in Round 2 after Chiasson's methodical ground strikes opened a significant cut. Her switch-stance approach—particularly the lead hook to body kick sequence—keeps opponents guessing about range.

The wrestling threat remains legitimate. Chiasson averages 2.08 takedowns per fight with 5.87 attempts, showing persistence even when initial shots fail. Against Sarah Moras in 2019, she secured early takedowns and controlled side position for extended periods, landing strikes that set up a second-round TKO.

Macy Chiasson's Technical Vulnerabilities

Defensive Gaps Against Forward Pressure: When opponents push her backward, Chiasson backs straight to the fence rather than circling laterally. Against Mayra Bueno Silva, right front kicks repeatedly pushed her to the cage, limiting her movement options and forcing clinch exchanges on unfavorable terms. This linear retreat pattern makes her predictable.

Ground Position Management: The Vieira loss exposed critical flaws in her bottom game. After shooting a poorly-timed takedown in Round 2, Chiasson spent over 10 minutes on her back across Rounds 2-3, unable to create escapes or offensive threats. She pushed off hips but consistently turned into worse positions, eventually giving up her back. Against Raquel Pennington in December 2021, a panic double-leg after absorbing a body knee left her neck exposed for a first-round submission.

Striking Defense When Hurt: Chiasson drops her hands when backing up under pressure, leaving openings for counter strikes. Irene Aldana exploited this in September 2022, landing a perfectly-placed up-kick to the liver that dropped Chiasson in Round 3. Her tendency to shoot reactive takedowns when hurt—rather than maintaining defensive structure—creates submission vulnerabilities.

Yana Santos's Breakdown

Santos brings a technical Muay Thai-based approach built around her 68-inch reach and 4.42 significant strikes per minute output. The Russian veteran has won two straight, most recently outpointing Miesha Tate in May 2025 through disciplined distance management and leg kick accumulation.

Against Tate, Santos showcased her evolved striking IQ. She used stiff jabs and slashing crosses to control range while damaging leg kicks compromised Tate's mobility throughout Rounds 1-2. When Tate crashed forward with wild combinations, Santos kept composure, parrying shots and countering with sharp right hands that snapped Tate's head back. Her clinch reversals along the fence demonstrated improved defensive wrestling—she shrugged off Tate's attempts with relative ease until Round 3.

The body attack has become Santos's signature. Against Chelsea Chandler in August 2024, she dug hooks to the midsection before going back upstairs with her jab, mixing levels to maximize damage. Her 1.79 body strikes landed per minute ranks among the division's best. This systematic approach wears opponents down—Tate's movement visibly slowed after absorbing Santos's body work across two rounds.

Santos's takedown defense sits at an elite 86.67%, with recent improvements pushing that to 129.55% (accounting for stuffed attempts that led to her own takedowns). Against Ketlen Vieira in February 2021, she stuffed multiple shots from the grappling specialist, keeping the fight standing where her striking advantage dominated. Her whizzer defense and underhook battles have become reliable.

Yana Santos's Technical Vulnerabilities

Ground Game Deficiencies: When Tate finally secured a takedown 1:15 into Round 3, Santos had no answers. She gave up mount quickly, then surrendered her back when attempting to turn away from strikes. For the final 3:45, Santos defended rear-naked chokes purely through survival tactics—hand fighting without creating offensive threats or technical escapes. Against Holly Holm in March 2023, similar issues emerged when Holm established top position and delivered damaging elbows.

Cardio Under Grappling Pressure: Santos's striking output drops dramatically when forced to defend extended grappling sequences. After Tate's Round 3 takedown, Santos had nothing left for offensive striking. Against Irene Aldana in July 2021, she faded badly in Round 3 before eating the finish at 4:35—her upright Taekwondo stance leaving her vulnerable to Aldana's overhand rights as fatigue set in.

Cage Positioning: Despite improved footwork, Santos still gets backed to the fence by pressure fighters. Aldana trapped her in the "black zone" (3-5 feet) where power punches carry maximum effect, landing the combination that finished the fight. Her failure to circle off the cage after initial engagements allows opponents to pin her in disadvantageous positions.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Chiasson's clinch-heavy pressure game collides directly with Santos's weakness in defending extended grappling. Where Santos struggled to escape Tate's control for nearly four minutes, Chiasson specializes in exactly that type of cage grinding. Chiasson's collar tie entries—using her 4-inch reach advantage—should find success against Santos's upright stance.

Santos's leg kicks pose problems for Chiasson's linear movement patterns. The same front kicks that pushed Mayra Bueno Silva backward will disrupt Chiasson's forward entries, potentially forcing her into reactive wrestling attempts. Santos landed effective calf kicks on Tate that got visible reactions—those same shots could compromise Chiasson's takedown entries.

The critical exchange happens in the clinch. Chiasson's knees to the body mirror the strikes that broke down Dumont, and Santos has shown vulnerability to body attacks when pressured. But if Santos can maintain distance through her jab and leg kicks—as she did against Vieira—Chiasson's path to clinch control becomes difficult.

Chiasson's submission defense concerns are real. Santos doesn't threaten submissions, but if Chiasson shoots panic takedowns when hurt (as against Aldana and Pennington), she creates openings. Santos's counter right hands, which snapped Tate's head back repeatedly, could force those desperate reactions.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Rounds: Santos's technical striking should control the opening frame. Her jab-leg kick combination will establish range while Chiasson works to close distance. Expect Chiasson to eat leg kicks while pressing forward, looking for collar tie entries. Santos's takedown defense holds up initially, but Chiasson's persistence (5.87 attempts per fight) eventually creates clinch opportunities.

Mid-Fight Adjustments: Chiasson's body work in the clinch becomes decisive. If she secures extended cage control in Round 2—as she did against Kianzad and Dumont—Santos's striking output drops. The accumulated body damage from knees and short elbows compromises Santos's movement, making her easier to pin against the fence. Santos must circle laterally rather than backing straight up, but her tendency to get trapped suggests Chiasson establishes dominance.

Championship Rounds: If Santos survives to Round 3 without being taken down, her cardio advantage materializes. Chiasson's recent performances show she maintains pace, but Santos's 10.93 strikes landed per minute in recent fights indicates superior output when fresh. However, if Chiasson secures a takedown—as Tate did—Santos has no path back. Her defensive-only ground game means Chiasson controls the final frame through top position.

Analysis and Key Points

• Reach and clinch control: Chiasson's 4-inch reach advantage and elite clinch game directly exploit Santos's biggest weakness—defending extended grappling exchanges along the fence
• Body work accumulation: Chiasson's systematic knee strikes to the body mirror the attacks that have historically broken down Santos, particularly when combined with cage pressure
• Takedown persistence: Chiasson's 5.87 attempts per fight overwhelm even Santos's 86.67% defense rate; volume creates opportunities
• Ground control dominance: If Chiasson secures top position, Santos's defensive-only approach (see Tate fight) means she survives but doesn't escape
• Recent form contrast: Chiasson's two finishes before the Vieira loss show offensive firepower; Santos's decision wins suggest she lacks finishing ability
• Heuristic warning: Santos was KO'd by Aldana in July 2021, showing vulnerability to power strikes when fatigued—Chiasson's clinch elbows carry similar danger

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence stems from multiple statistical edges favoring Chiasson:

• Odds increased the score by 7 points—the betting market heavily favors Chiasson, and the model agrees with that assessment
• Recent Win Percentage added 3 points—both fighters sit at 67% recently, but Chiasson's finishes carry more weight than Santos's decisions
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight contributed 3 points—Chiasson's 6.75 recent attempts dwarf Santos's 2.06, indicating grappling pressure Santos can't match
• Reach added 2 points—Chiasson's 72-inch reach creates clinch control advantages that Santos's 68-inch reach can't neutralize
• Striking differentials (significant striking impact, recent significant striking impact, recent striking impact) each added 1 point—Chiasson's +23.39 recent striking impact differential edges Santos's +62.33, but the model weighs finishing ability heavily

The only negative factor was Striking Defense Percentage (-1 point), where Santos's 42.43% edges Chiasson's 35.13%. However, this matters less in clinch-heavy fights where Santos's defensive gaps emerge.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI's history with these fighters shows mixed accuracy. For Chiasson, the model went 2-3, correctly predicting her wins over Kianzad (0.61 score) but missing the Vieira loss (0.62 score suggested Chiasson would win). The Vieira miss is notable—the model didn't account for the weight class change and Vieira's grappling dominance.

For Santos, the model went 2-1, correctly calling her wins over Tate (0.59) and Chandler (0.54), while accurately predicting her loss to Holm (0.80 for Holm). The model recognizes Santos's striking advantages but consistently identifies her ground game as exploitable.

The 13-point confidence score here is moderate—not the blowout prediction seen with Aldana over Chiasson (0.78) but stronger than the close Kianzad call (0.61). This suggests the model sees clear paths to victory for Chiasson while acknowledging Santos's striking could keep it competitive early.

Conclusion

Chiasson's clinch-heavy pressure game and relentless takedown attempts overwhelm Santos's defensive wrestling over three rounds. While Santos's technical striking and leg kicks control the early exchanges, Chiasson's persistence in closing distance eventually pins Santos against the fence. The accumulated body damage from clinch knees—the same weapon that broke Dumont—compromises Santos's movement and takedown defense. By Round 2, Chiasson secures extended cage control or a takedown, and Santos's defensive-only ground game offers no escape. Expect Chiasson to grind out a unanimous decision or secure a late finish via ground strikes, replicating her systematic breakdowns of Kianzad and Bueno Silva. WolfTicketsAI backs Chiasson to extend her winning ways against strikers who can't stop her clinch dominance.