Analysis: Edmen Shahbazyan vs Andre Muniz

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Edmen Shahbazyan to Win

Score: 15
Odds:
Edmen Shahbazyan: -290
Andre Muniz: +215

Edmen Shahbazyan's Breakdown

Shahbazyan enters this middleweight clash riding back-to-back victories for the first time in six years. Against Andre Petroski in June 2025, he showcased career-best cardio management by going the full 15 minutes and landing a vicious body kick in Round 3 that folded Petroski to the canvas. That same body kick weapon dropped Petroski in Round 1 as well, forcing ground-and-pound sequences before Shahbazyan allowed him back up. This marked only the second decision of his career, proving he can pace himself beyond his trademark explosive first-round finishes.

His signature techniques revolve around three core weapons. First, the right cross-left hook combination remains his bread and butter—he used this exact sequence to demolish Dylan Budka in 38 seconds in February 2025, setting it up with a right straight to the body that lowered Budka's guard. Second, his body kicks have become devastatingly accurate, landing with fight-altering force against Petroski and earlier against Dalcha Lungiambula in December 2022, where body shots set up the finishing knee. Third, his bounce-step entry allows him to explode into range without telegraphing, closing distance for combinations before opponents can react.

Against Lungiambula, Shahbazyan demonstrated improved patience, using front kicks to the body to maintain distance before landing the decisive right hand-knee combination in Round 2. His striking defense has evolved from the shell guard he relied on against Derek Brunson in 2020, though he still maintains a 47% striking defense percentage that suggests vulnerability to volume strikers.

Edmen Shahbazyan's Technical Vulnerabilities

Defensive posture after power shots: Shahbazyan consistently drops his right hand after throwing it, leaving his chin exposed. Against Nassourdine Imavov in November 2021, this habit allowed Imavov to land the combination that led to the second-round TKO finish. He tends to reset with his chin high after combinations rather than immediately returning to guard position or following with defensive strikes to "close the door."

Ground game discomfort: When Gerald Meerschaert submitted him in August 2024, Shahbazyan's bottom game collapsed entirely. He failed to create proper frames when Meerschaert established top position, allowing methodical position advancement until the submission. Most tellingly, when he dropped Petroski twice with body kicks, Shahbazyan immediately stood him back up rather than pursuing ground finishes—suggesting either lack of confidence or skill deficiency in his ground-and-pound game.

Cardio-related technical deterioration: Against Anthony Hernandez in May 2023, Shahbazyan's explosive style left him breathing heavily by Round 2. His punch crispness disappeared, footwork flattened, and defensive reactions slowed dramatically. When Derek Brunson pressured him in August 2020, the same pattern emerged—dominant first round followed by complete collapse as Brunson's wrestling wore him down, eventually finishing him with ground strikes in Round 3.

Andre Muniz's Breakdown

Muniz built his UFC reputation as an elite submission specialist, becoming the first fighter to submit Ronaldo "Jacare" Souza in May 2021 with a first-round armbar that broke Souza's arm. That technique—attacking the humerus bone at a precise angle rather than just the joint—earned Submission of the Year honors. He followed with another armbar finish against Eryk Anders in December 2021, inverting Anders and securing a wrist-to-wrist connection to generate finishing torque.

His three signature techniques define his grappling approach. First, his armbar from multiple positions—he's finished fights with armbars from guard, mount, and back control, using unique angles that create structural damage before pain. Second, his body lock takedowns along the cage, which he uses to drag fights to his preferred domain. Against Uriah Hall in July 2022, Muniz secured repeated takedowns and maintained back control for extended periods, earning a unanimous decision. Third, his submission chains from back control, particularly the transition from seated arm triangle attempts to back takes when opponents turn away from the threat.

Muniz averages 4.29 takedowns per fight with 53% accuracy on 8.05 attempts, showing relentless grappling pressure. His 1.25 submissions per fight rate ranks among the division's elite.

Andre Muniz's Technical Vulnerabilities

Striking defense deterioration under pressure: Against Ikram Aliskerov in April 2025, Muniz spent five minutes reaching for strikes rather than closing distance with proper footwork. He left his head on centerline with minimal defensive movement, eventually getting caught by Aliskerov's straight-armed left hand over the shoulder that turned his head and led to the first-round TKO. His 43% striking defense percentage reflects fundamental gaps in his stand-up game.

Passive takedown initiation against prepared opponents: The Aliskerov fight exposed alarming passivity—Muniz went the entire first round without committed takedown attempts despite facing a superior striker. Against JunYong Park in December 2023, even when Muniz secured dominant positions, Park's tight elbow positioning and constant scrambling prevented Muniz from capitalizing. Park's defensive grappling neutralized Muniz's submission attempts, leading to a controversial split decision.

Defensive grappling collapse when fatigued: Brendan Allen exposed this in February 2023 when Muniz inexplicably opened his guard just six minutes into the fight, allowing Allen to easily pass and take his back for the rear-naked choke finish. Against Paul Craig in July 2023, Muniz was taken down and mounted, where Craig's frame elbows "tore him to shreds" for a second-round TKO—shocking for a supposed grappling specialist. His recent win percentage has plummeted to 33%, losing three of his last six UFC fights.

Style Matchup Dynamics

Shahbazyan's explosive striking directly threatens Muniz's passive takedown entries. When Muniz reaches for strikes without proper footwork—as he did against Aliskerov—Shahbazyan's bounce-step entry and right cross-left hook combination will find a stationary target. Muniz's 43% striking defense means Shahbazyan's body kicks, which dropped Petroski twice, should land with similar effect.

Conversely, Muniz's body lock takedowns along the cage could exploit Shahbazyan's 51% takedown defense. However, Shahbazyan defended takedowns effectively against Petroski (a top grappler) by pushing forward proactively rather than reacting. Against Jack Hermansson in May 2021, Shahbazyan's takedown defense held up in Rounds 1-2 before fatigue set in during Round 3.

The critical question: Can Muniz survive Shahbazyan's explosive first-round assault to drag him into deep waters? Muniz's recent passivity suggests he won't pressure takedowns early enough. Against Aliskerov, Muniz's willingness to strike with a superior boxer proved disastrous—the same mistake awaits if he engages Shahbazyan's power punching.

Shahbazyan's improved cardio against Petroski changes this dynamic. If he maintains technical discipline beyond Round 1, Muniz's path to victory narrows significantly. Muniz's submission game requires getting Shahbazyan down first, but his recent takedown passivity and Shahbazyan's proactive defense create a problematic combination for the Brazilian.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early Round (0-5 minutes): Shahbazyan will establish his jab and body kicks immediately, using the same patient approach that worked against Petroski. Muniz historically shows passivity in pursuing takedowns early—he went the entire first round against Aliskerov without committed attempts. Expect Shahbazyan to land clean combinations as Muniz reaches for strikes without proper entries. The body kick that dropped Petroski twice should find similar success against Muniz's upright striking posture.

Mid-Fight (5-10 minutes): If Muniz survives the early onslaught, he must commit to body lock takedowns along the cage. However, Shahbazyan's improved cardio against Petroski suggests he can maintain defensive wrestling into the second round. When Shahbazyan defended Petroski's takedowns in Round 2, he immediately scrambled back up within seconds—the same quick escapes that frustrated Hermansson early. Muniz's submission attempts require sustained control, which Shahbazyan has shown ability to deny when fresh.

Championship Rounds (10-15 minutes): Historically, this phase favors Muniz if the fight reaches it. Shahbazyan's technical execution deteriorated against Hernandez and Brunson in later rounds. However, his full 15-minute performance against Petroski—including the Round 3 body kick finish—suggests genuine cardio improvements. Muniz's defensive grappling collapsed against Allen just six minutes in, and his recent losses show vulnerability when opponents maintain pressure. If Shahbazyan paces correctly, Muniz's recent 33% win rate indicates he's more likely to fade than capitalize.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking differential favors Shahbazyan heavily: His recent significant striking output differential (+3.31) and impact differential (-0.15) vastly outperform Muniz's (-10.0 output, -5.78 impact). Shahbazyan lands 3.58 significant strikes per minute at 48% accuracy versus Muniz's 1.85 at 46%.

• Takedown volume concerns for Muniz: Despite averaging 4.29 takedowns per fight historically, his recent passivity (zero committed attempts in Round 1 vs Aliskerov) suggests psychological or physical decline. Shahbazyan's 51% takedown defense held against Petroski's 3-fight win streak.

• Recent form disparity: Shahbazyan rides back-to-back wins with improved cardio and technical patience. Muniz has lost 4 of his last 6, including devastating KO/TKO losses to strikers (Aliskerov, Craig) that exposed his stand-up vulnerabilities.

• Heuristic warning - Recent KO/TKO loss: Muniz was knocked out by Aliskerov just seven months ago. The same defensive gaps that allowed Aliskerov's straight-armed left hand remain exploitable by Shahbazyan's right cross.

• Body attack vulnerability: Muniz absorbed 0.56 body strikes per minute with poor defensive reactions. Shahbazyan's body kicks and right straights to the midsection—which set up his head strikes against Budka and Lungiambula—directly target this weakness.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence stems primarily from the odds (+15 impact), which heavily favor Shahbazyan at -290 versus Muniz's +215. This reflects bookmakers' recognition of Muniz's recent decline and Shahbazyan's resurgence.

Significant striking differentials added +2 to the score. Shahbazyan's superior output and impact in significant strikes create a clear path to victory on the feet, where Muniz has shown alarming defensive gaps.

Recent form metrics (+1 from recent significant striking impact differential, +1 from recent win percentage) highlight Shahbazyan's 67% recent win rate versus Muniz's 33%. The model recognizes momentum matters.

Minor negative adjustments came from win streak differential (-1) and recent takedowns attempted (-1), acknowledging Muniz's historical grappling threat. However, his recent passivity in pursuing takedowns minimizes this concern.

The model essentially sees a striker hitting his stride against a grappler in steep decline who's lost the aggression needed to implement his game.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has predicted Shahbazyan six times with mixed results. It correctly predicted his victories over Petroski (0.54 score), Budka (0.70), Dobson (0.64), and Lungiambula (0.74). However, it incorrectly favored him against Meerschaert (0.70 score, lost by submission) and correctly predicted his loss to Hernandez (0.24 score for Hernandez).

The Meerschaert loss stands as a cautionary tale—the model favored Shahbazyan's striking but underestimated the submission threat. However, Meerschaert showed aggressive grappling from the opening bell, while Muniz's recent passivity suggests he won't replicate that approach.

For Muniz, the model has struggled. It incorrectly favored him against Allen (0.67 score, lost by submission) and Craig (0.25 score, lost by TKO). It correctly predicted his loss to Aliskerov (0.76 for Aliskerov) and his win over Hall (0.26 score). The model's difficulty with Muniz reflects his inconsistency—elite submissions when aggressive, but vulnerable everywhere when passive.

The 15-point confidence score here suggests stronger conviction than the Meerschaert fight (0.70), likely due to Muniz's recent decline and Shahbazyan's improved cardio management.

Conclusion

Shahbazyan's explosive striking, improved cardio, and proactive takedown defense collide with Muniz's recent passivity, defensive striking gaps, and alarming losses to strikers. The body kicks that dropped Petroski twice will find Muniz's upright stance. The right cross-left hook combination that demolished Budka will exploit Muniz's 43% striking defense. Unless Muniz rediscovers the aggressive grappling that submitted Souza and Hall—which his recent performances suggest he won't—Shahbazyan finishes him inside two rounds. WolfTicketsAI's prediction of a Shahbazyan victory reflects the clear technical advantages of a striker hitting his stride against a grappler in freefall.