The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
This radar chart shows each fighter's strengths across key fighting dimensions. Each dimension is scored 0-100 based on their percentile ranking within the Featherweight weight class.
Recent Prediction
This prediction includes detailed insights.
Predicted Winner: Daniel Santos
Weight Class: Featherweight
Final Confidence: 0.63
Value: -30.0%
Reason: Base confidence < 10, decreased by 30%
Value: -10.0%
Reason: Predicted winner is moving up in weight for the first time
Weight Change: Moving up in weight (from Bantamweight to Featherweight)
Weight Change: Staying at usual weight
Score: 1.0
Odds:
Daniel Santos: -142
JooSang Yoo: +112
Santos brings a 13-2 record with three consecutive UFC wins into this featherweight matchup. His game revolves around relentless pressure, adaptive grappling, and body-targeting warfare that breaks opponents down over time.
Against JeongYeong Lee in May 2025, Santos showcased his evolution as a complete mixed martial artist. Despite losing the first round and getting dropped by body kicks, he went 0-for-5 on takedowns but never abandoned the gameplan. In rounds two and three, his persistence paid off—he secured takedowns, escaped a near-triangle, and controlled Lee from side control and back mount. Santos mixed in wheel kicks and head kicks between grappling exchanges, neutralizing Lee's 6-inch reach advantage. That clean right hand he landed in round three would've finished most fighters, but he stayed tactical and cruised to a 30-27 sweep on all cards.
His June 2023 win over Johnny Munoz highlighted his defensive grappling brilliance. When Munoz repeatedly pulled guard hunting armbars, Santos used "switch" techniques—similar to Carlos Condit's escapes—to slip out of body locks and compromised positions. In round four, he escaped a fully locked body triangle and rear-naked choke by rolling to the opposite side, standing up, and using Munoz's weight against him. His southpaw left kicks and body punches sapped Munoz's energy throughout, setting up his superior scrambling.
Against John Castaneda in October 2022, Santos ate multiple high kicks in round one that visibly rocked him, but his chin and cardio held. Castaneda burned his gas tank hunting a finish late in the first, checking the clock with 30 seconds left—a fatal mistake. Santos walked him down in round two, landing consistently as Castaneda's movement deteriorated, securing the TKO finish.
Santos lands 4.26 significant strikes per minute at 40% accuracy while absorbing 5.12 per minute—not pretty defensively, but his 3.03 takedowns per fight on 39% accuracy give him multiple paths to victory. His recent form is pristine: 100% win rate in his last stretch, averaging 4.86 significant strikes landed per minute with improved 56% striking defense.
1. Early Round Striking Defense: Santos absorbs 5.12 significant strikes per minute with just 46% striking defense overall. Against Lee, he got dropped by body kicks in round one. Against Castaneda, he ate two massive head kicks early that nearly finished him. His tendency to pressure forward with hands low leaves him open to counters, particularly left hooks (as Arce demonstrated) and body attacks. This defensive liability becomes critical against a precision counter-striker.
2. Takedown Setup Predictability: The 0-for-5 first-round performance against Lee exposed telegraphed entries. Santos often shoots naked singles without proper striking setups or level changes to disguise his intentions. Against an opponent with 100% takedown defense like Yoo, this predictability could leave him eating counters in bad positions.
3. Cardio-Dependent Gameplan: Santos relies on opponents wilting under his pressure. Against Castaneda, he needed his opponent to gas before taking over. Against Lee, he required two full rounds to implement his grappling. If Yoo finishes early—as he did in 28 seconds against Saragih—Santos never reaches the later rounds where his conditioning advantage materializes.
Yoo enters with a perfect 9-0 record, including a spectacular 28-second knockout in his June 2025 UFC debut. Trained by Korean Zombie, he's a counter-striking specialist with devastating power and elite timing.
Against Jeka Saragih at UFC 316, Yoo opened with a spinning wheel kick that missed, then immediately settled into his counter-striking rhythm. When Saragih pressed forward with his signature aggression, Yoo backpedaled and threw a fade-out left hook—a short, perfectly timed counter that caught Saragih's chin as he lunged in. The punch utilized Saragih's forward momentum against him, spinning his head and sending him face-first to the canvas at 0:28 of round one. Yoo added a follow-up shot to seal the finish, drawing comparisons to McGregor's knockout of Aldo.
Yoo's technical profile centers on deception and precision. He keeps his hands low at his waist, relying on head movement and footwork for defense. He's heavy on feints—twitching his hips, faking jabs—creating multiple layers of misdirection before unleashing crisp straight punches and sneaky head kicks. His leg kicks are solid, and he controls range masterfully, drawing opponents into perfect counter-striking distance.
The stats from his UFC debut are absurd: 12.86 significant strikes landed per minute at 75% accuracy, 32.14 knockdowns per fight (obviously inflated by the instant finish), and 100% takedown defense. He absorbed just 4.29 significant strikes per minute with 50% striking defense—though that's based on 28 seconds of data.
1. Low Guard Against Pressure: Yoo's low hand placement worked against Saragih's predictable aggression, but Santos is a different animal. Santos throws combinations to the body and head, mixing wheel kicks and takedown attempts that could exploit Yoo's defensive gaps. Against a fighter who absorbs damage to close distance—like Santos does—Yoo's reliance on head movement and footwork might not be enough. His 50% striking defense (limited sample) suggests he can be hit when opponents don't rush straight into counters.
2. Untested Cardio and Grappling Defense: Yoo finished Saragih in 28 seconds, providing zero data on his gas tank or defensive grappling under sustained pressure. Pre-fight scouting noted he "lacks finishing instincts on the ground" and "rarely capitalizes when he does get dominant positions." Santos attempts 7.71 takedowns per fight—if Yoo can't stop the wrestling or escape bad positions, his striking brilliance becomes irrelevant. His 100% takedown defense is based on literally zero attempts faced in the UFC.
3. Low-Percentage Technique Addiction: Yoo "has a habit of throwing spinning kicks that rarely land and tend to drain his energy." He opened against Saragih with a missed spinning wheel kick. Against Santos's relentless pressure, wasting energy on flashy techniques could backfire badly. Yoo also "can be overly hesitant at times, and his offense can devolve into basic, low-risk striking"—if he can't find his counter-striking rhythm early, he may struggle to impose his game.
This fight pits Santos's pressure-grappling grind against Yoo's explosive counter-striking. Here's how their specific techniques match up:
Santos's Pressure vs Yoo's Counter-Striking: Santos walks forward relentlessly, throwing body kicks, combinations, and shooting takedowns. Yoo thrives when opponents rush into his counters—exactly what Saragih did. But Santos doesn't rush blindly; he pressures methodically, mixing attacks to create openings. If Yoo tries his fade-out left hook counter, Santos's chin (proven against Castaneda's head kicks) might hold, allowing him to clinch or shoot.
Santos's Takedowns vs Yoo's Untested Ground Game: Santos's 3.03 takedowns per fight on 7.71 attempts means he'll shoot early and often. Yoo's 100% takedown defense is based on zero UFC attempts faced. If Santos secures even one takedown—as he did against Lee and Munoz—Yoo's documented lack of ground finishing instincts becomes a massive problem. Santos can control from top position, land ground-and-pound, and drain Yoo's cardio.
Yoo's Left Hook vs Santos's Defensive Gaps: Yoo's short left counter hook is his money punch. Santos got staggered by Arce's left hook and dropped by Lee's strikes in round one. If Yoo times that counter as Santos pressures forward, he could replicate the Saragih finish. But Santos has shown he can recover from early adversity—he ate Castaneda's head kicks and Lee's body attacks before taking over.
Body Work Exploitation: Santos's body kicks and punches (1.14 body strikes landed per minute) target an area Yoo hasn't defended in the UFC. Saragih never attacked the body before getting knocked out. If Santos lands consistent body kicks like he did against Lee and Munoz, Yoo's cardio and movement could deteriorate, neutralizing his counter-striking.
Early Round (0-5 minutes): Yoo's best chance is here. He'll look to time Santos's forward pressure with his left hook counter or head kick. Santos will pressure immediately, mixing body kicks and takedown attempts. If Yoo lands clean early—like he did against Saragih—this could end fast. But Santos's chin and recovery ability make an instant knockout less likely. Yoo's low guard and untested takedown defense are vulnerabilities Santos can exploit.
Mid-Fight (5-10 minutes): If the fight reaches this phase, momentum shifts heavily toward Santos. His cardio and grappling pressure will start overwhelming Yoo. Santos will have secured at least one takedown by now, testing Yoo's ground game and draining his gas tank. Yoo's spinning kicks and hesitant offense will become liabilities as fatigue sets in. Santos's body work accumulates damage, slowing Yoo's footwork and head movement.
Late Round (10-15 minutes): This is Santos's world. He's won all three UFC decisions by dominating later rounds after tough starts. Yoo's cardio is completely untested beyond 28 seconds. If Santos hasn't finished him by now, he's controlling him on the ground or walking him down on the feet. Yoo's counter-striking requires speed and timing—both deteriorate with fatigue. Santos's relentless pace breaks opponents here, just as it did against Castaneda and Lee.
Experience Gap: Santos has 15 pro fights and 5 UFC appearances, including three-round wars. Yoo has 28 seconds of UFC cage time. That inexperience becomes glaring in deep waters.
Grappling Mismatch: Santos's 3.03 takedowns per fight vs Yoo's zero UFC grappling exchanges tested. Santos's defensive grappling (escaping Munoz's submissions, Lee's triangle) is proven. Yoo's ground game is a complete unknown with documented weaknesses.
Chin and Recovery: Santos ate Castaneda's head kicks and Lee's body attacks, recovering to win both fights. Yoo's chin is untested beyond one exchange. If Santos survives an early counter, Yoo has no backup plan.
Cardio Advantage: Santos fights at a high pace for 15 minutes. Yoo's cardio is unproven, and his spinning kicks waste energy. The longer this goes, the more Santos's conditioning dominates.
Finishing Paths: Yoo needs an early knockout—his only proven path to victory. Santos can win by decision, TKO, or submission across all three rounds. Multiple paths beat one path.
The model heavily favors Santos based on several key factors:
Recent Win Percentage (+3.0): Santos's 100% recent win rate vs Yoo's untested UFC record creates massive confidence in Santos's current form.
Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight (+3.0): Santos's 5.61 recent takedown attempts per fight is a weapon Yoo has never faced. This grappling threat is the model's biggest confidence driver.
Odds (+2.0): Despite Yoo being the slight underdog at +112, the model sees value in Santos at -142 based on his proven skillset.
Significant Striking Impact Differential (+1.0) and Striking Impact Differential (+1.0): Santos's ability to land meaningful strikes over time gives him an edge in extended exchanges.
TrueSkill (-2.0): Yoo's higher TrueSkill rating (Mu: 25.0, Sigma: 8.333) reflects his perfect record, but his massive uncertainty (Sigma) hurts the model's confidence. Santos's TrueSkill (Mu: 29.91, Sigma: 4.88) shows proven consistency.
Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage (-1.0): Santos's improved 56% recent defense is still a concern against Yoo's precision, slightly lowering confidence.
The model sees Santos's grappling, cardio, and experience overwhelming Yoo's untested skillset despite the knockout threat.
WolfTicketsAI has predicted Santos three times: correct on his wins over Lee (0.54 score) and Munoz (0.73 score), but incorrectly favored Castaneda (0.71 score) when Santos pulled the upset KO. The model has learned to respect Santos's ability to overcome adversity and finish strong.
Yoo has never been predicted by the model—his UFC debut provides no historical data. This lack of track record adds uncertainty, but the model's 1.0 confidence score suggests Santos's proven advantages outweigh Yoo's unknown ceiling.
Santos drags Yoo into deep water and drowns him. Yoo's counter-striking is elite, and that left hook could end this in round one. But Santos has eaten bigger shots from Castaneda and Lee, recovered, and imposed his will. Yoo's untested cardio, unproven takedown defense, and lack of ground game give Santos multiple paths to victory. Santos shoots takedowns early, mixes in body attacks, and pressures relentlessly. By round two, Yoo's footwork slows, his counters lose snap, and Santos takes over—either grinding a decision or securing a late finish. WolfTicketsAI's 1.0 confidence score reflects the experience, grappling, and cardio mismatch. Santos wins this fight.
Stat | Daniel Santos | JooSang Yoo | Weight Class Average | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Main Stats | ||||
Age | 30 | 31 | 33 | |
Height | 67" | 67" | 69" | |
Reach | 67" | 71" | 72" | |
Win Percentage | 86.67% | 100.00% | 82.01% | |
Wins | 14 | 9 | ||
Losses | 2 | 1 | ||
Wins at Weight Class | 1 | 0 | ||
Losses at Weight Class | 0 | 0 | ||
Striking Stats | ||||
Striking Accuracy | 48.01% | 75.00% | 49.29% | |
Significant Striking Accuracy | 40.44% | 75.00% | 44.80% | |
Strikes Landed Per Minute | 6.848 | 12.857 | 5.321 | |
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.737 | 12.857 | 4.266 | |
Knockdowns per Fight | 0.275 | 32.143 | 2.191 | |
Striking Impact Differential | 2.00% | 4.00% | 1.37% | |
Significant Striking Impact Differential | -3.00% | 4.00% | 0.68% | |
Striking Output Differential | 25.75% | 4.00% | 3.52% | |
Significant Striking Output Differential | 19.50% | 4.00% | 2.79% | |
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 82.84% | 33.33% | 78.33% | |
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 112.40% | 33.33% | 95.53% | |
Striking Defense Percentage | 51.79% | 50.00% | 47.42% | |
Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
Submissions per Fight | 0.000 | 0.000 | 0.576 | |
Takedowns per Fight | 3.029 | 0.000 | 1.559 | |
Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 7.711 | 0.000 | 4.388 | |
Takedown Defense | 36.36% | 100.00% | 84.99% | |
Takedown Accuracy | 39.29% | 0.00% | 24.77% | |
Head Stats | ||||
Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 3.085 | 8.571 | 2.798 | |
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 9.290 | 12.857 | 6.632 | |
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 3.544 | 4.286 | 2.537 | |
Body Stats | ||||
Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.138 | 0.000 | 0.709 | |
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 1.689 | 0.000 | 1.036 | |
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 1.047 | 0.000 | 0.671 | |
Leg Stats | ||||
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.514 | 4.286 | 0.759 | |
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.734 | 4.286 | 0.902 | |
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.367 | 0.000 | 0.550 | |
Clinch Stats | ||||
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.441 | 0.000 | 0.290 | |
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.569 | 0.000 | 0.394 | |
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.294 | 0.000 | 0.326 |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
May 10, 2025 | Featherweight | Daniel Santos | JeongYeong Lee | Daniel Santos | |
June 3, 2023 | Bantamweight | Daniel Santos | Johnny Munoz | Daniel Santos | |
Oct. 1, 2022 | Catch Weight | John Castaneda | Daniel Santos | Daniel Santos | |
April 9, 2022 | Bantamweight | Julio Arce | Daniel Santos | Julio Arce |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
June 7, 2025 | Featherweight | Jeka Saragih | JooSang Yoo | JooSang Yoo |