Analysis: Jessica Andrade vs Loopy Godinez

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Loopy Godinez to Win

Score: 8
Odds:
Jessica Andrade: 136
Loopy Godinez: -174

Jessica Andrade's Breakdown

Andrade enters this fight in concerning decline, having lost 4 of her last 6 UFC bouts. Against Jasudavicius, her technical flaws were brutally exposed—she showed predictable linear head movement while pressuring forward, making her vulnerable to straight counters. Her signature looping hooks have become telegraphed, and she's abandoning the cutting angles that once made her pressure effective.

Andrade's body lock takedowns remain dangerous when she can secure clinch position, using her exceptional strength to lift and slam opponents. Her high-output punching combinations can still overwhelm fighters who can't match her pace, particularly her 3-4 punch chains while advancing forward. However, her defensive lapses in transition have become glaring—she drops her hands when changing levels and turns her back when escaping clinch positions, as seen when Jasudavicius secured the rear-naked choke.

Jessica Andrade's Technical Vulnerabilities

Andrade's linear footwork has become predictable, moving her head on a straight plane when pressuring forward. Against Silva, she was flinching at feints before even taking damage, indicating psychological deterioration. Her over-commitment to exchanges leaves massive openings—she absorbs strikes to deliver her own without establishing proper defensive positioning first.

Most critically, her transition defense is compromised. When switching between striking and grappling, she consistently leaves openings. Jasudavicius exploited this by timing uppercuts during her predictable 1-2-to-takedown sequences. Her once-effective body work has disappeared, making her offense one-dimensional and easier to defend.

Loopy Godinez's Breakdown

Godinez brings a wrestling-dominant pressure game that should perfectly exploit Andrade's current vulnerabilities. Her ankle control technique when opponents turtle is exceptional—grabbing the ankle to destabilize scrambles and maintain top position, as demonstrated against Carnelossi. She chains jab-to-takedown sequences effectively, using her compact boxing to close distance before securing clinch position.

Godinez's rear-naked choke against Reed showcased her opportunistic grappling, capitalizing on defensive mistakes to secure fight-ending submissions. Her cage-cutting footwork forces opponents into defensive positions where her wrestling advantage is maximized. Against Calvillo, she consistently won position battles by securing double underhooks and controlling head position along the fence.

Loopy Godinez's Technical Vulnerabilities

Godinez's takedown defense remains questionable at 23%, making her vulnerable to wrestlers who can reverse positions. Against Jandiroba, her defensive grappling was exposed when facing elite submission artists. Her striking defense has declined recently, absorbing more head strikes per minute in recent fights.

Her cardio management can falter in later rounds when forced to work defensively, as seen against Dern where she became more wild with her striking. Godinez also shows vulnerability to counter-strikers who can time her entries, particularly when she overcommits to takedown attempts.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup heavily favors Godinez's skill set. Andrade's predictable forward pressure plays directly into Godinez's reactive takedown game. When Andrade throws her signature looping hooks, Godinez can time level changes for easy takedowns, similar to how Jasudavicius caught her entries.

Godinez's underhook control in the clinch will neutralize Andrade's body lock attempts. Her superior positional awareness on the ground means she can avoid Andrade's slam attempts while advancing position for submissions. Andrade's tendency to turn her back when escaping clinch positions gives Godinez clear paths to back control.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds: Godinez should establish her jab early, using it to disrupt Andrade's rhythm while setting up takedown entries. Andrade's flinching at feints suggests she's already compromised mentally.

Mid-fight: As Andrade's predictable pressure continues, Godinez can time her takedowns more easily. Andrade's declining cardio and increasing desperation will create more openings.

Championship rounds: Andrade's technical regression accelerates under fatigue. Her defensive lapses become more pronounced, giving Godinez multiple submission opportunities.

Analysis and Key Points

• Technical decline: Andrade's regression mirrors her performance against Jasudavicius—predictable entries and defensive breakdowns • Style mismatch: Godinez's reactive wrestling perfectly counters Andrade's linear pressure • Mental state: Andrade's pre-damage flinching suggests psychological vulnerability • Submission threat: Godinez's rear-naked choke expertise targets Andrade's tendency to expose her back

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence stems from several key factors: - Odds heavily favored the prediction, decreasing the score by 6.0 points - Recent Win Percentage increased confidence by 2.0, reflecting Godinez's better recent form vs Andrade's decline - Reach advantage of 1 inch for Godinez supports her technical approach - Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential favors Godinez's more efficient output

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has been remarkably accurate with both fighters recently. For Andrade, the model correctly predicted her losses to Silva and Jasudavicius while catching her lone recent win against Rodriguez. For Godinez, the model shows strong predictive accuracy, correctly calling 6 of her last 8 fights including recent wins over Polastri and Reed.

Conclusion

Godinez represents everything that troubles the current version of Andrade—reactive wrestling, submission threats, and the patience to capitalize on defensive mistakes. Andrade's technical regression, combined with Godinez's improving grappling game, creates a clear path to victory for the Mexican-Canadian. WolfTicketsAI's pick of Loopy Godinez reflects the stark contrast between a fighter ascending and one in clear decline.