Analysis: Jared Cannonier vs Michael Page

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Michael Page to Win

Score: 15
Odds:
Jared Cannonier: +144
Michael Page: -186

Jared Cannonier's Breakdown

Cannonier brings serious knockout power and technical adaptability that's evolved significantly throughout his UFC tenure. His signature techniques center around his devastating right straight to the body - a punch he's weaponized against multiple opponents, including his recent knockout of Gregory Rodrigues in Round 4. Cannonier times this body shot underneath opponents' guards and follows with his right straight-weave-left hook combination, which proved lethal against Rodrigues along the fence.

His step-up low kicks remain a cornerstone technique, particularly the lead leg variant that previously dropped Anderson Silva. These kicks serve multiple purposes: disrupting rhythm, creating distance, and establishing offensive patterns. Against Marvin Vettori, Cannonier showcased his evolved stance-switching game, moving fluidly between orthodox and southpaw to create new angles and confuse defensive timing.

Cannonier's recent technical evolution includes superior tactical adaptation mid-fight. Against Rodrigues, when his initial entries were being countered, he implemented "bullshit jabs" - intentionally out-of-range strikes to disrupt counter-timing - before setting up his real attacks. This adjustment completely neutralized Rodrigues' slip-counter game and demonstrates Cannonier's improved fight IQ at age 40.

Jared Cannonier's Technical Vulnerabilities

Cannonier's primary vulnerability lies in his telegraphed initial entries, particularly when closing distance aggressively. Rodrigues exploited this early by timing inside slip counters, hurting Cannonier twice in Round 1 with left hooks and short right hands after slipping his predictable forward movement. Against Nassourdine Imavov, this same flaw led to the fourth-round knockout when Cannonier was caught during an aggressive exchange.

His defensive head movement remains inconsistent when entering the pocket. Caio Borralho exposed this by using long guard techniques and defensive jabbing to control distance, ultimately scoring a knockdown in Round 5. When Cannonier switches stances, he occasionally leaves brief windows for straight punches during the transition.

Against pressure fighters who can maintain defensive discipline, Cannonier struggles to establish his rhythm. Borralho's leverage guard and shoulder rolls minimized Cannonier's striking opportunities throughout their five-round affair, showing how technical defensive boxing can neutralize his power.

Michael Page's Breakdown

Page operates from an exceptionally unorthodox striking platform built around distance manipulation and explosive counter-attacks. His signature lunging right hand covers massive distance before immediately transitioning to clinch work and off-balancing techniques. Against Shara Magomedov, Page demonstrated masterful counter-punching by baiting low kicks, pulling his lead leg back at the last moment, then firing precise straight punches as Magomedov reset.

His distance management is particularly sophisticated - Page deliberately presents targets to draw attacks, then exploits the openings created during his opponent's recovery. Against Kevin Holland, he used intercepting straight punches with devastating effect, timing Holland's linear forward movement and jumping into counters with full commitment. His "wedge sweep" technique, where he throws his entire body into strikes, created knockdowns and completely disrupted Holland's rhythm.

Page's clinch integration has evolved significantly since his Bellator days. Rather than purely defensive clinching, he now uses underhooks and body positioning to shove opponents off-balance after his lunging entries, creating resets that allow him to re-establish his preferred long-range game.

Michael Page's Technical Vulnerabilities

Page's stance-switching mechanics create exploitable windows when performed statically. Against Magomedov in Round 2, Page switched stances directly in front of his opponent without accompanying strikes or lateral movement, momentarily bringing his feet together and creating vulnerability to straight attacks. This flaw becomes more pronounced when Page is pressured and can't disguise his transitions.

His over-reliance on the lunging right hand becomes predictable against composed opponents who don't retreat linearly. The technique's effectiveness diminishes significantly when opponents pivot offline or maintain their ground, as it relies heavily on creating panic and forcing backward movement.

Page's ground game remains his most glaring weakness. Against Ian Machado Garry, when taken down via back body lock in Round 2, Page showed limited defensive wrestling skills and struggled to create scrambles or wall-walk effectively. His takedown defense relies more on grip strength and wrist control than proper sprawling mechanics.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a fascinating clash between Cannonier's aggressive, power-based entries and Page's evasive, counter-striking approach. Cannonier's tendency toward telegraphed initial attacks could play directly into Page's counter-punching wheelhouse. When Cannonier commits to his right straight entries, Page's lunging counter-attacks could time these moments perfectly.

However, Cannonier's body work presents unique problems for Page's defensive structure. Page's long stance and distance-focused game leaves him potentially vulnerable to Cannonier's step-up low kicks and body straights. Unlike the linear strikers Page has faced, Cannonier's stance-switching creates multiple angles of attack that could disrupt Page's counter-timing.

Cannonier's pressure-based approach could force Page into static stance switches, creating opportunities to exploit Page's transitional vulnerabilities. When Page switches stances under pressure, Cannonier's right straight could find its mark during those brief windows.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds favor Page's counter-striking approach, as Cannonier typically begins aggressively with predictable entries. Page's ability to bait and counter these initial attacks could establish early control and potentially score knockdowns, similar to his success against Holland.

Mid-fight adjustments become crucial for Cannonier. His ability to implement tactical changes - like the "bullshit jabs" against Rodrigues - could neutralize Page's counter-timing. If Cannonier can establish his body work and low kicks, Page's movement-based defense may become less effective.

Championship rounds could expose Page's cardio against Cannonier's proven five-round pace. Cannonier's recent performances show improved conditioning, while Page's limited UFC sample size raises questions about his championship-round effectiveness under sustained pressure.

Analysis and Key Points

• Range Control Battle: Page's distance management versus Cannonier's pressure entries will determine early exchanges • Counter vs. Power: Page's intercepting strikes against Cannonier's knockout power creates high-risk, high-reward scenarios • Body Work Factor: Cannonier's underutilized body attack could exploit Page's long stance vulnerabilities • Stance Switch Timing: Both fighters' stance transitions create brief windows for exploitation • Grappling Wildcard: If the fight hits the mat, Cannonier's superior ground experience becomes significant

Understanding the Prediction

The model heavily weighs several key factors favoring Page. Odds decreased the prediction score by 8.0, reflecting the betting market's confidence in Page despite his limited UFC sample size. Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 3.0, acknowledging Cannonier's recent struggles (1-2 in his last three). TrueSkill decreased by 2.0, indicating the model views Cannonier as the more proven commodity.

However, Page's physical advantages drive the prediction: Reach increased the score by 1.0, giving him a 2-inch advantage that complements his distance-based game. Striking Defense Percentage increased by 1.0, reflecting his ability to avoid damage through movement and positioning.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI shows mixed results with both fighters. For Cannonier, the model went 3-4 in his recent fights, notably missing his knockout of Rodrigues (predicted Rodrigues to win) and his loss to Imavov (predicted Cannonier). This suggests potential difficulty reading Cannonier's evolving game.

For Page, the model is 1-1, correctly predicting Garry's victory but missing Page's win over Magomedov. With Page's limited UFC data, these predictions carry higher uncertainty.

Conclusion

Page's unorthodox striking style and counter-punching ability present the perfect stylistic answer to Cannonier's aggressive, telegraphed entries. While Cannonier brings knockout power and technical evolution, his vulnerability to well-timed counters plays directly into Page's strengths. The reach advantage and defensive metrics support Page's ability to control distance and exploit Cannonier's predictable attack patterns. WolfTicketsAI's pick of Michael Page reflects a calculated bet on style over experience.