Analysis: Ryan Spann vs Lukasz Brzeski

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Ryan Spann to Win

Score: 14
Odds:
Ryan Spann: -245
Lukasz Brzeski: +186

Ryan Spann's Breakdown

Spann brings a dangerous combination of submission skills and knockout power to heavyweight, though his recent heavyweight debut against Cortes-Acosta exposed significant vulnerabilities. His signature techniques include the guillotine choke - which he used to submit Ovince Saint Preux in October 2024 at just 1:35 of the first round - and his devastating overhand right that dropped Dominick Reyes in November 2022. Against Saint Preux, Spann showed his ability to capitalize on takedown attempts by quickly transitioning to the guillotine, demonstrating his opportunistic grappling game.

However, Spann's move to heavyweight has been problematic. Against Cortes-Acosta in March 2025, he showed poor energy management, depleting his gas tank early while loading up on single power shots rather than establishing a consistent jab. His defensive positioning deteriorated as the fight progressed, with his guard dropping and head movement becoming minimal. The telling moment came when he attempted a wild wheel kick that completely missed, forcing him to reset across the cage - a clear sign of poor shot selection under fatigue.

Spann's technical evolution has been concerning rather than progressive. His overreliance on the overhand right makes him predictable, as seen in his loss to Bogdan Guskov where he was caught with a perfectly timed uppercut while jabbing and dipping in. His cardio issues, already evident at light heavyweight, have become more pronounced at heavyweight where he can't rely on his usual size and reach advantages.

Ryan Spann's Technical Vulnerabilities

Spann's primary vulnerability is his cardio management, which becomes catastrophic as fights progress. Against Cortes-Acosta, his technique completely broke down in the later stages - his punches lost snap, defensive movements slowed, and he became increasingly hittable. His predictable striking patterns, particularly the overhand right, leave him open to counters. Against Guskov, he walked directly into an uppercut because he couldn't adapt to his opponent's unorthodox timing.

His defensive awareness also deteriorates under pressure. The most glaring example was against Nikita Krylov, where Spann made a fundamental error by rushing headfirst at a grounded opponent, essentially diving into a triangle choke. This type of impulsive decision-making under pressure has cost him multiple fights and suggests poor fight IQ in critical moments.

Lukasz Brzeski's Breakdown

Brzeski enters this fight on a brutal skid, having lost four of his last five UFC appearances with three consecutive knockout losses. His approach centers on high-volume striking - he attempted nearly 100 more total strikes than Valter Walker in his lone recent victory, landing 135 significant strikes. Against Walker, Brzeski showed his best attribute: the ability to maintain offensive output and pressure when allowed to dictate the pace.

However, Brzeski's recent performances reveal a fighter struggling with UFC-level competition. Against Kennedy Nzechukwu in December 2024, he couldn't close the distance effectively against the longer, more athletic heavyweight. His plodding, forward-moving style lacks the footwork necessary to cut off the cage against mobile opponents. Against Mick Parkin, Brzeski's defensive lapses were exposed when Parkin's relentless pressure and accurate counter-striking led to a first-round knockout at 3:23.

Brzeski's technical limitations become more apparent against well-rounded opponents. His takedown defense allowed Walker to land 4-of-5 attempts, though he showed decent recovery skills. His striking, while voluminous, lacks the precision and timing needed against higher-level competition.

Lukasz Brzeski's Technical Vulnerabilities

Brzeski's most glaring weakness is his takedown defense, which has been consistently exploited throughout his UFC tenure. Against Karl Williams, he was repeatedly taken down and controlled against the cage, neutralizing his striking advantage. His inability to defend takedowns becomes particularly problematic against fighters who can mix grappling with striking threats.

His defensive striking is equally concerning. Against Cortes-Acosta, Brzeski was knocked out by a right hand at 3:01 of the first round after being drawn into exchanges where his defensive positioning was poor. His tendency to absorb damage while pressing forward has led to multiple knockout losses, suggesting his chin may be compromised. His cardio also appears questionable - while he can maintain high output early, his effectiveness diminishes as fights progress, particularly when forced to work defensively.

Style Matchup Dynamics

This matchup presents a fascinating clash of two fighters with significant vulnerabilities. Spann's guillotine choke could be perfectly suited to exploit Brzeski's poor takedown defense - if Brzeski shoots recklessly, Spann has the submission skills to capitalize immediately, similar to how he finished Saint Preux. Spann's reach advantage (79" vs 78") and height should allow him to maintain distance and pick his shots.

However, Brzeski's high-volume striking approach could exploit Spann's cardio issues. If Brzeski can force Spann to work at a high pace early, he might be able to capitalize as Spann's defensive fundamentals deteriorate. Brzeski's forward pressure, while often reckless, could overwhelm Spann if he can weather the early submission threats.

The key technical battle will be Spann's ability to time Brzeski's entries with takedowns or clinch work to set up submissions versus Brzeski's capacity to maintain distance and force Spann into extended striking exchanges.

Fight Phase Analysis

Early rounds favor Spann's explosive finishing ability - his guillotine choke and overhand right are most dangerous when his technique is sharp and his cardio is fresh. Brzeski's aggressive starts have consistently led to early knockouts against him, making the opening minutes crucial.

Mid-fight adjustments will be critical. If Spann can't finish early, his cardio issues become pronounced, while Brzeski's defensive lapses typically worsen as he absorbs damage. The fighter who can better adapt their approach after the initial exchanges will likely control the fight's outcome.

In championship rounds, both fighters have shown significant vulnerabilities. Spann's technique breaks down completely when fatigued, while Brzeski becomes increasingly hittable as his defensive positioning deteriorates.

Analysis and Key Points

• Spann's submission threat: His guillotine choke against Saint Preux shows he can capitalize on Brzeski's poor takedown defense • Cardio concerns: Both fighters have shown conditioning issues, but Spann's are more severe at heavyweight • Striking exchanges: Brzeski's volume could overwhelm Spann if he survives early submission attempts • Defensive lapses: Both fighters make critical errors under pressure - Spann's impulsiveness vs Brzeski's poor positioning • Weight class factor: Spann's heavyweight transition has been problematic, while Brzeski is a natural heavyweight

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Spann stems primarily from the odds differential, which increased the prediction score by 14 points - the largest factor in the analysis. Spann's recent takedowns attempted per fight (+3) and recent win percentage (+2) also boosted confidence, despite his recent heavyweight struggles. His reach advantage (+1) and significant striking output differential (+1) provide additional edges.

However, Spann's striking defense percentage (-2) and TrueSkill rating (-1) work against him, reflecting his defensive vulnerabilities and recent poor performances.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI's track record with these fighters shows mixed results. For Spann, the model correctly predicted his submission win over Saint Preux but failed on his losses to Cortes-Acosta, Guskov, and Anthony Smith. The model has been perfect when predicting against Brzeski, correctly calling his losses to Nzechukwu, Parkin, and Cortes-Acosta. This pattern suggests the model may be undervaluing Brzeski's chances while overestimating Spann's heavyweight capabilities.

Conclusion

Despite both fighters' significant flaws, Spann's submission skills and early finishing ability give him the edge against Brzeski's defensively porous style. Brzeski's poor takedown defense plays directly into Spann's strongest weapon - the guillotine choke. While Spann's cardio issues are concerning, Brzeski's tendency to get knocked out early suggests this fight won't reach the later rounds where Spann's conditioning becomes critical. WolfTicketsAI's prediction of Ryan Spann securing the victory appears sound, likely via first-round submission.