Viviane Araujo vs. Tracy Cortez - UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Tracy Cortez by Decision - Unanimous

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 627.00m
Weight Class: Women's Strawweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Viviane Araujo
4
7
+190
Tracy Cortez
15
2.9
-260

Fighter Comparison Chart

This radar chart shows each fighter's strengths across key fighting dimensions. Each dimension is scored 0-100 based on their percentile ranking within the Women's Strawweight weight class.

Viviane Araujo
Tracy Cortez
Women's Strawweight Average (50th percentile)

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Weighted Scoring Report

Weighted Score for WTAI Prediction

Predicted Winner: Tracy Cortez

Weight Class: Women's Strawweight

Final Confidence: 17.01

Confidence Adjustments

Value: +20.0%

Reason: Base confidence between 14 and 21, increased by 20%

Value: -10.0%

Reason: Predicted winner is moving down in weight

Value: +5.0%

Reason: Opponent is moving down in weight

Fighter History & Outcomes

Viviane Araujo

Weight Change: Moving down in weight (from Women's Flyweight to Women's Strawweight)

Fight History:

  • November 16, 2024: Viviane Araujo won against Karine Silva. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • February 3, 2024: Viviane Araujo lost against Natalia Silva. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • October 14, 2023: Viviane Araujo won against Jennifer Maia. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • March 4, 2023: Viviane Araujo lost against Amanda Ribas. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 26 - 30. 27 - 30. 27 - 29.
  • October 15, 2022: Viviane Araujo lost against Alexa Grasso. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 45 - 50. 46 - 49. 46 - 49.
  • May 14, 2022: Viviane Araujo won against Andrea Lee. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 27 - 29. 27 - 29.
  • May 15, 2021: Viviane Araujo lost against Katlyn Cerminara. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 27 - 30.
  • January 20, 2021: Viviane Araujo won against Roxanne Modafferi. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 26 - 30.
  • September 5, 2020: Viviane Araujo won against Montana De La Rosa. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 28 - 29.
  • December 14, 2019: Viviane Araujo lost against Jessica Eye. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • July 27, 2019: Viviane Araujo won against Alexis Davis. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • May 11, 2019: Viviane Araujo won against Talita Bernardo. The fight ended in round 3 at 0:48. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
Tracy Cortez

Weight Change: Moving down in weight (from Women's Flyweight to Women's Strawweight)

Fight History:

  • July 13, 2024: Tracy Cortez lost against Rose Namajunas. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 46 - 49. 46 - 49. 47 - 48.
  • September 16, 2023: Tracy Cortez won against Jasmine Jasudavicius. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 28 - 29.
  • May 7, 2022: Tracy Cortez won against Melissa Gatto. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • April 17, 2021: Tracy Cortez won against Justine Kish. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 29 - 28. 27 - 30.
  • October 10, 2020: Tracy Cortez won against Stephanie Egger. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 27 - 30.
  • November 16, 2019: Tracy Cortez won against Vanessa Melo. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 27 - 29.

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat Viviane Araujo Tracy Cortez
Main Stats
Age 38 31
Height 64" 65"
Reach 68" 65"
Win Percentage 68.42% 84.62%
Wins 13 12
Losses 7 2
Wins at Weight Class 6 3
Losses at Weight Class 5 1
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 55.05% 55.87%
Significant Striking Accuracy 47.62% 47.01%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.899 5.760
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.037 3.620
Knockdowns per Fight 0.081 0.000
Striking Impact Differential -10.33% 23.00%
Significant Striking Impact Differential -12.92% 9.00%
Striking Output Differential -40.67% 20.83%
Significant Striking Output Differential -43.50% 5.83%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 114.87% 81.25%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 158.93% 117.96%
Striking Defense Percentage 56.84% 58.10%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.646 0.300
Takedowns per Fight 1.857 1.800
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 4.279 4.200
Takedown Defense 25.00% 64.71%
Takedown Accuracy 43.40% 42.86%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.987 2.230
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 7.207 5.920
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 3.068 2.020
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.587 0.740
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.754 0.970
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.942 0.600
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.463 0.650
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.517 0.810
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.861 0.460
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.075 0.390
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.108 0.460
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.361 0.340
Viviane Araujo History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Nov. 16, 2024 Women's Flyweight Viviane Araujo Karine Silva Viviane Araujo
Feb. 3, 2024 Women's Flyweight Viviane Araujo Natalia Silva Natalia Silva
Oct. 14, 2023 Women's Flyweight Jennifer Maia Viviane Araujo Viviane Araujo
March 4, 2023 Women's Flyweight Viviane Araujo Amanda Ribas Amanda Ribas
Oct. 15, 2022 Women's Flyweight Alexa Grasso Viviane Araujo Alexa Grasso
May 14, 2022 Women's Flyweight Viviane Araujo Andrea Lee Viviane Araujo
May 15, 2021 Women's Flyweight Katlyn Cerminara Viviane Araujo Katlyn Cerminara
Jan. 20, 2021 Women's Flyweight Roxanne Modafferi Viviane Araujo Viviane Araujo
Sept. 5, 2020 Women's Flyweight Viviane Araujo Montana De La Rosa Viviane Araujo
Dec. 14, 2019 Women's Flyweight Jessica Eye Viviane Araujo Jessica Eye
July 27, 2019 Women's Flyweight Alexis Davis Viviane Araujo Viviane Araujo
May 11, 2019 Women's Bantamweight Talita Bernardo Viviane Araujo Viviane Araujo
Tracy Cortez History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
July 13, 2024 Women's Flyweight Rose Namajunas Tracy Cortez Rose Namajunas
Sept. 16, 2023 Women's Flyweight Tracy Cortez Jasmine Jasudavicius Tracy Cortez
May 7, 2022 Women's Flyweight Tracy Cortez Melissa Gatto Tracy Cortez
April 17, 2021 Women's Flyweight Tracy Cortez Justine Kish Tracy Cortez
Oct. 10, 2020 Women's Bantamweight Tracy Cortez Stephanie Egger Tracy Cortez
Nov. 16, 2019 Women's Bantamweight Vanessa Melo Tracy Cortez Tracy Cortez