Niko Price vs. Jacobe Smith - UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Jacobe Smith by Submission

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 627.00m
Weight Class: Welterweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Niko Price
+600
Jacobe Smith
17
1
23
-16.2
-1408

Weighted Scoring Report

Weighted Score for WTAI Prediction

Predicted Winner: Jacobe Smith

Weight Class: Welterweight

Final Confidence: 20.4

Confidence Adjustments

Value: +20.0%

Reason: Base confidence between 14 and 21, increased by 20%

Fighter History & Outcomes

Niko Price

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

  • October 12, 2024: Niko Price lost against Themba Gorimbo. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 27 - 30.
  • June 1, 2024: Niko Price won against Alex Morono. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • July 8, 2023: Niko Price lost against Robbie Lawler. The fight ended in round 1 at 0:38. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • December 3, 2022: Niko Price lost against Phil Rowe. The fight ended in round 3 at 3:26. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • October 2, 2021: Niko Price won against Alex Oliveira. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • July 10, 2021: Niko Price lost against Michel Pereira. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • September 19, 2020: Niko Price had an inconclusive result against Donald Cerrone. The fight went the distance (3 Rnd (5-5-5)). Additional details: 27 - 29. 28 - 28. 28 - 28.
  • May 9, 2020: Niko Price lost against Vicente Luque. The fight ended in round 3 at 3:37. Method of victory: TKO - Doctor's Stoppage.
  • October 12, 2019: Niko Price won against James Vick. The fight ended in round 1 at 1:44. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • July 27, 2019: Niko Price lost against Geoff Neal. The fight ended in round 2 at 2:39. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • March 9, 2019: Niko Price won against Tim Means. The fight ended in round 1 at 4:50. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • September 8, 2018: Niko Price lost against Abdul Razak Alhassan. The fight ended in round 1 at 0:43. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • July 14, 2018: Niko Price won against Randy Brown. The fight ended in round 2 at 1:09. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • January 27, 2018: Niko Price won against George Sullivan. The fight ended in round 2 at 4:21. Method of victory: Submission.
  • October 28, 2017: Niko Price lost against Vicente Luque. The fight ended in round 2 at 4:08. Method of victory: Submission.
  • August 5, 2017: Niko Price won against Alan Jouban. The fight ended in round 1 at 1:44. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • February 4, 2017: Niko Price had an inconclusive result against Alex Morono. The fight went the distance (3 Rnd (5-5-5)).
  • December 30, 2016: Niko Price won against Brandon Thatch. The fight ended in round 1 at 4:30. Method of victory: Submission.
Jacobe Smith

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

  • January 11, 2025: Jacobe Smith won against Preston Parsons. The fight ended in round 1 at 1:13. Method of victory: KO/TKO.

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat Niko Price Jacobe Smith
Main Stats
Age 35 29
Height 72" 70"
Reach 76" 72"
Win Percentage 66.67% 100.00%
Wins 16 11
Losses 9 0
Wins at Weight Class 8 1
Losses at Weight Class 10 0
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 49.46% 52.17%
Significant Striking Accuracy 42.95% 52.17%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 7.168 9.863
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.212 9.863
Knockdowns per Fight 0.473 12.329
Striking Impact Differential 4.22% 4.00%
Significant Striking Impact Differential -3.22% 5.00%
Striking Output Differential 19.61% 8.00%
Significant Striking Output Differential 10.61% 9.00%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 77.82% 58.33%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 102.66% 58.33%
Striking Defense Percentage 48.96% 50.00%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.663 0.000
Takedowns per Fight 1.041 0.000
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 3.502 0.000
Takedown Defense 90.00% 100.00%
Takedown Accuracy 29.73% 0.00%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 3.199 6.575
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 9.332 13.973
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 3.773 4.932
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.864 1.644
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.420 2.466
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.965 0.822
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 1.148 1.644
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 1.382 2.466
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.839 0.000
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.568 0.000
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.965 0.000
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.442 0.822
Niko Price History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Oct. 12, 2024 Welterweight Themba Gorimbo Niko Price Themba Gorimbo
June 1, 2024 Welterweight Niko Price Alex Morono Niko Price
July 8, 2023 Welterweight Robbie Lawler Niko Price Robbie Lawler
Dec. 3, 2022 Welterweight Niko Price Phil Rowe Phil Rowe
Oct. 2, 2021 Welterweight Alex Oliveira Niko Price Niko Price
July 10, 2021 Welterweight Niko Price Michel Pereira Michel Pereira
Sept. 19, 2020 Welterweight Donald Cerrone Niko Price None
May 9, 2020 Welterweight Vicente Luque Niko Price Vicente Luque
Oct. 12, 2019 Welterweight Niko Price James Vick Niko Price
July 27, 2019 Welterweight Geoff Neal Niko Price Geoff Neal
March 9, 2019 Welterweight Tim Means Niko Price Niko Price
Sept. 8, 2018 Welterweight Abdul Razak Alhassan Niko Price Abdul Razak Alhassan
July 14, 2018 Welterweight Randy Brown Niko Price Niko Price
Jan. 27, 2018 Welterweight Niko Price George Sullivan Niko Price
Oct. 28, 2017 Welterweight Vicente Luque Niko Price Vicente Luque
Aug. 5, 2017 Welterweight Alan Jouban Niko Price Niko Price
Feb. 4, 2017 Welterweight Alex Morono Niko Price None
Dec. 30, 2016 Welterweight Brandon Thatch Niko Price Niko Price
Jacobe Smith History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Jan. 11, 2025 Welterweight Preston Parsons Jacobe Smith Jacobe Smith