Jack Hermansson vs. Gregory Rodrigues - UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Gregory Rodrigues by KO/TKO

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 627.00m
Weight Class: Middleweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Jack Hermansson
5
12
+158
Gregory Rodrigues
10
3.0
-205

Weighted Scoring Report

Weighted Score for WTAI Prediction

Predicted Winner: Gregory Rodrigues

Weight Class: Middleweight

Final Confidence: 9.9

Confidence Adjustments

Value: +10.0%

Reason: Base confidence between 10 and 13, increased by 10%

Value: -10.0%

Reason: Predicted winner lost by KO/TKO within last 12 months

Fighter History & Outcomes

Jack Hermansson

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

  • February 10, 2024: Jack Hermansson won against Joe Pyfer. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 47 - 48. 47 - 48. 47 - 48.
  • December 3, 2022: Jack Hermansson lost against Roman Dolidze. The fight ended in round 2 at 4:06. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • July 23, 2022: Jack Hermansson won against Chris Curtis. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 27 - 30.
  • February 5, 2022: Jack Hermansson lost against Sean Strickland. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 46 - 49. 48 - 47. 46 - 49.
  • May 22, 2021: Jack Hermansson won against Edmen Shahbazyan. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 29. 27 - 29. 27 - 29.
  • December 5, 2020: Jack Hermansson lost against Marvin Vettori. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 46 - 49. 46 - 49. 45 - 49.
  • July 18, 2020: Jack Hermansson won against Kelvin Gastelum. The fight ended in round 1 at 1:18. Method of victory: Submission.
  • September 28, 2019: Jack Hermansson lost against Jared Cannonier. The fight ended in round 2 at 0:27. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • April 27, 2019: Jack Hermansson won against Jacare Souza. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 47 - 48. 46 - 49. 47 - 48.
  • March 30, 2019: Jack Hermansson won against David Branch. The fight ended in round 1 at 0:49. Method of victory: Submission.
  • December 15, 2018: Jack Hermansson won against Gerald Meerschaert. The fight ended in round 1 at 4:25. Method of victory: Submission.
  • May 12, 2018: Jack Hermansson won against Thales Leites. The fight ended in round 3 at 2:10. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • October 28, 2017: Jack Hermansson lost against Thiago Santos. The fight ended in round 1 at 4:59. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • August 5, 2017: Jack Hermansson won against Brad Scott. The fight ended in round 1 at 3:50. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • May 28, 2017: Jack Hermansson won against Alex Nicholson. The fight ended in round 1 at 2:00. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • November 19, 2016: Jack Hermansson lost against Cezar Ferreira. The fight ended in round 2 at 2:11. Method of victory: Submission.
  • September 3, 2016: Jack Hermansson won against Scott Askham. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 28 - 29.
Gregory Rodrigues

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

  • February 15, 2025: Gregory Rodrigues lost against Jared Cannonier. The fight ended in round 4 at 0:21. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • July 27, 2024: Gregory Rodrigues won against Christian Leroy Duncan. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 27 - 30.
  • February 10, 2024: Gregory Rodrigues won against Brad Tavares. The fight ended in round 3 at 0:55. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • August 19, 2023: Gregory Rodrigues won against Denis Tiuliulin. The fight ended in round 1 at 1:43. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • January 21, 2023: Gregory Rodrigues lost against Brunno Ferreira. The fight ended in round 1 at 4:13. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • September 17, 2022: Gregory Rodrigues won against Chidi Njokuani. The fight ended in round 2 at 1:27. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • June 18, 2022: Gregory Rodrigues won against Julian Marquez. The fight ended in round 1 at 3:18. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • February 26, 2022: Gregory Rodrigues lost against Armen Petrosyan. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 29 - 28. 27 - 30.
  • October 23, 2021: Gregory Rodrigues won against JunYong Park. The fight ended in round 2 at 3:13. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • June 5, 2021: Gregory Rodrigues won against Dusko Todorovic. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 28 - 29.

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat Jack Hermansson Gregory Rodrigues
Main Stats
Age 37 33
Height 73" 75"
Reach 77" 75"
Win Percentage 75.00% 72.73%
Wins 24 17
Losses 9 6
Wins at Weight Class 11 7
Losses at Weight Class 6 3
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 51.63% 54.91%
Significant Striking Accuracy 44.94% 52.94%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 6.961 6.284
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.090 5.590
Knockdowns per Fight 0.000 0.946
Striking Impact Differential 30.65% 7.50%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 16.18% 6.70%
Striking Output Differential 49.82% 6.60%
Significant Striking Output Differential 32.88% 5.30%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 69.84% 83.61%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 94.09% 91.54%
Striking Defense Percentage 56.49% 51.16%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.382 0.315
Takedowns per Fight 1.529 2.364
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 5.045 5.990
Takedown Defense 23.81% 12.50%
Takedown Accuracy 30.30% 39.47%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.843 4.224
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 8.301 8.900
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 2.670 2.743
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 1.024 1.072
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.559 1.282
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.815 1.145
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 1.223 0.294
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 1.468 0.378
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.204 0.998
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.382 0.631
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.515 0.893
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.219 0.683
Jack Hermansson History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Feb. 10, 2024 Middleweight Jack Hermansson Joe Pyfer Jack Hermansson
Dec. 3, 2022 Middleweight Jack Hermansson Roman Dolidze Roman Dolidze
July 23, 2022 Middleweight Jack Hermansson Chris Curtis Jack Hermansson
Feb. 5, 2022 Middleweight Jack Hermansson Sean Strickland Sean Strickland
May 22, 2021 Middleweight Jack Hermansson Edmen Shahbazyan Jack Hermansson
Dec. 5, 2020 Middleweight Jack Hermansson Marvin Vettori Marvin Vettori
July 18, 2020 Middleweight Jack Hermansson Kelvin Gastelum Jack Hermansson
Sept. 28, 2019 Middleweight Jack Hermansson Jared Cannonier Jared Cannonier
April 27, 2019 Middleweight Jacare Souza Jack Hermansson Jack Hermansson
March 30, 2019 Middleweight David Branch Jack Hermansson Jack Hermansson
Dec. 15, 2018 Middleweight Gerald Meerschaert Jack Hermansson Jack Hermansson
May 12, 2018 Middleweight Thales Leites Jack Hermansson Jack Hermansson
Oct. 28, 2017 Middleweight Thiago Santos Jack Hermansson Thiago Santos
Aug. 5, 2017 Middleweight Brad Scott Jack Hermansson Jack Hermansson
May 28, 2017 Middleweight Jack Hermansson Alex Nicholson Jack Hermansson
Nov. 19, 2016 Middleweight Cezar Ferreira Jack Hermansson Cezar Ferreira
Sept. 3, 2016 Middleweight Scott Askham Jack Hermansson Jack Hermansson
Gregory Rodrigues History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Feb. 15, 2025 Middleweight Jared Cannonier Gregory Rodrigues Jared Cannonier
July 27, 2024 Middleweight Christian Leroy Duncan Gregory Rodrigues Gregory Rodrigues
Feb. 10, 2024 Middleweight Brad Tavares Gregory Rodrigues Gregory Rodrigues
Aug. 19, 2023 Middleweight Gregory Rodrigues Denis Tiuliulin Gregory Rodrigues
Jan. 21, 2023 Middleweight Gregory Rodrigues Brunno Ferreira Brunno Ferreira
Sept. 17, 2022 Middleweight Chidi Njokuani Gregory Rodrigues Gregory Rodrigues
June 18, 2022 Middleweight Julian Marquez Gregory Rodrigues Gregory Rodrigues
Feb. 26, 2022 Middleweight Armen Petrosyan Gregory Rodrigues Armen Petrosyan
Oct. 23, 2021 Middleweight JunYong Park Gregory Rodrigues Gregory Rodrigues
June 5, 2021 Middleweight Dusko Todorovic Gregory Rodrigues Gregory Rodrigues