Ilia Topuria vs. Charles Oliveira - UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO

Fight Info:

Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Elevation: 627.00m

Weight Class: Lightweight

Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.

Predictions

W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value

Fighter

Confidence

Dec

Sub

TKO

Odds

Ilia Topuria

-3.0

25.0%|2

12.5%|1

62.5%|5

-460

Charles Oliveira

14.71%|5

58.82%|20

23.53%|8

+320

Fighter Comparison Chart

This radar chart shows each fighter's strengths across key fighting dimensions. Each dimension is scored 0-100 based on their percentile ranking within the Lightweight weight class.

Ilia Topuria

Charles Oliveira

Lightweight Average (50th percentile)

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Weighted Scoring Report

Recent Prediction

This prediction includes detailed insights.

Weighted Score for WTAI Prediction

Predicted Winner: Ilia Topuria

Weight Class: Lightweight

Final Confidence: 23.62

Confidence Adjustments

Value: +5.0%

Reason: Base confidence between 22 and 26, increased by 5%

Value: -10.0%

Reason: Predicted winner is moving up in weight for the first time

Fighter History & Outcomes

Ilia Topuria

Weight Change: Moving up in weight (from UFC Featherweight Title to Lightweight)

Fight History:

October 26, 2024: Ilia Topuria won against Max Holloway. The fight ended in round 3 at 1:34. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
February 17, 2024: Ilia Topuria won against Alexander Volkanovski. The fight ended in round 2 at 3:32. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
June 24, 2023: Ilia Topuria won against Josh Emmett. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 44 - 50. 42 - 50. 45 - 49.
December 10, 2022: Ilia Topuria won against Bryce Mitchell. The fight ended in round 2 at 3:10. Method of victory: Submission.
March 19, 2022: Ilia Topuria won against Jai Herbert. The fight ended in round 2 at 1:07. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
July 10, 2021: Ilia Topuria won against Ryan Hall. The fight ended in round 1 at 4:47. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
December 5, 2020: Ilia Topuria won against Damon Jackson. The fight ended in round 1 at 2:38. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
October 10, 2020: Ilia Topuria won against Youssef Zalal. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.

Charles Oliveira

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

November 16, 2024: Charles Oliveira won against Michael Chandler. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 46 - 49. 46 - 49. 45 - 49.
April 13, 2024: Charles Oliveira lost against Arman Tsarukyan. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 29 - 28. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
June 10, 2023: Charles Oliveira won against Beneil Dariush. The fight ended in round 1 at 4:10. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
October 22, 2022: Charles Oliveira lost against Islam Makhachev. The fight ended in round 2 at 3:16. Method of victory: Submission.
May 7, 2022: Charles Oliveira won against Justin Gaethje. The fight ended in round 1 at 3:22. Method of victory: Submission.
December 11, 2021: Charles Oliveira won against Dustin Poirier. The fight ended in round 3 at 1:02. Method of victory: Submission.
May 15, 2021: Charles Oliveira won against Michael Chandler. The fight ended in round 2 at 0:19. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
December 12, 2020: Charles Oliveira won against Tony Ferguson. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 26 - 30. 26 - 30. 26 - 30.
March 14, 2020: Charles Oliveira won against Kevin Lee. The fight ended in round 3 at 0:28. Method of victory: Submission.
November 16, 2019: Charles Oliveira won against Jared Gordon. The fight ended in round 1 at 1:26. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
May 18, 2019: Charles Oliveira won against Nik Lentz. The fight ended in round 2 at 2:11. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
February 2, 2019: Charles Oliveira won against David Teymur. The fight ended in round 2 at 0:55. Method of victory: Submission.
December 15, 2018: Charles Oliveira won against Jim Miller. The fight ended in round 1 at 1:15. Method of victory: Submission.
September 22, 2018: Charles Oliveira won against Christos Giagos. The fight ended in round 2 at 3:22. Method of victory: Submission.
June 9, 2018: Charles Oliveira won against Clay Guida. The fight ended in round 1 at 2:18. Method of victory: Submission.
December 2, 2017: Charles Oliveira lost against Paul Felder. The fight ended in round 2 at 4:06. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
April 8, 2017: Charles Oliveira won against Will Brooks. The fight ended in round 1 at 2:30. Method of victory: Submission.
November 5, 2016: Charles Oliveira lost against Ricardo Lamas. The fight ended in round 2 at 2:13. Method of victory: Submission.
August 27, 2016: Charles Oliveira lost against Anthony Pettis. The fight ended in round 3 at 1:49. Method of victory: Submission.
December 19, 2015: Charles Oliveira won against Myles Jury. The fight ended in round 1 at 3:05. Method of victory: Submission.
August 23, 2015: Charles Oliveira lost against Max Holloway. The fight ended in round 1 at 1:39. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
May 30, 2015: Charles Oliveira won against Nik Lentz. The fight ended in round 3 at 1:10. Method of victory: Submission.
December 12, 2014: Charles Oliveira won against Jeremy Stephens. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
June 28, 2014: Charles Oliveira won against Hatsu Hioki. The fight ended in round 2 at 4:32. Method of victory: Submission.
February 15, 2014: Charles Oliveira won against Andy Ogle. The fight ended in round 3 at 2:40. Method of victory: Submission.
July 6, 2013: Charles Oliveira lost against Frankie Edgar. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 28 - 29. 27 - 30.
September 22, 2012: Charles Oliveira lost against Cub Swanson. The fight ended in round 1 at 2:40. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
June 1, 2012: Charles Oliveira won against Jonathan Brookins. The fight ended in round 2 at 2:42. Method of victory: Submission.
January 28, 2012: Charles Oliveira won against Eric Wisely. The fight ended in round 1 at 1:43. Method of victory: Submission.
August 14, 2011: Charles Oliveira lost against Donald Cerrone. The fight ended in round 1 at 3:01. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
June 26, 2011: Charles Oliveira had an inconclusive result against Nik Lentz. The fight went the distance (3 Rnd (5-5-5)).
December 11, 2010: Charles Oliveira lost against Jim Miller. The fight ended in round 1 at 1:59. Method of victory: Submission.
September 15, 2010: Charles Oliveira won against Efrain Escudero. The fight ended in round 3 at 2:25. Method of victory: Submission.
August 1, 2010: Charles Oliveira won against Darren Elkins. The fight ended in round 1 at 0:41. Method of victory: Submission.

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat	Ilia Topuria	Charles Oliveira	Weight Class Average
Main Stats
Age	28	35	34
Height	67"	70"	69"
Reach	69"	74"	71"
Win Percentage	100.00%	77.78%	89.76%
Wins	17	35
Losses	0	11
Wins at Weight Class	0	2
Losses at Weight Class	0	1
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy	50.00%	63.07%	62.50%
Significant Striking Accuracy	47.35%	55.25%	54.88%
Strikes Landed Per Minute	5.477	4.923	6.025
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute	4.694	3.403	3.977
Knockdowns per Fight	1.100	0.462	0.476
Striking Impact Differential	7.88%	2.35%	22.48%
Significant Striking Impact Differential	8.75%	1.44%	14.18%
Striking Output Differential	-9.50%	-0.85%	18.82%
Significant Striking Output Differential	-9.00%	-1.38%	8.64%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio	131.03%	67.08%	69.79%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio	148.18%	91.86%	99.41%
Striking Defense Percentage	64.44%	49.30%	58.90%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight	1.100	2.656	1.104
Takedowns per Fight	2.017	2.252	2.376
Takedowns Attempted per Fight	3.301	5.601	4.781
Takedown Defense	7.69%	78.57%	32.49%
Takedown Accuracy	61.11%	40.21%	49.58%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute	3.313	2.006	2.770
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute	7.946	4.242	5.875
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute	2.139	2.337	1.698
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute	0.807	0.901	0.658
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute	1.259	1.301	0.883
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute	0.917	0.604	0.675
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute	0.575	0.497	0.549
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute	0.709	0.616	0.674
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute	0.782	0.273	0.447
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute	0.147	0.651	0.479
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute	0.196	0.870	0.631
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute	0.098	0.273	0.282

Ilia Topuria History:

Date	Weight	Red Corner	Blue Corner	Winner
Oct. 26, 2024	UFC Featherweight Title	Ilia Topuria	Max Holloway	Ilia Topuria
Feb. 17, 2024	UFC Featherweight Title	Alexander Volkanovski	Ilia Topuria	Ilia Topuria
June 24, 2023	Featherweight	Josh Emmett	Ilia Topuria	Ilia Topuria
Dec. 10, 2022	Featherweight	Bryce Mitchell	Ilia Topuria	Ilia Topuria
March 19, 2022	Lightweight	Jai Herbert	Ilia Topuria	Ilia Topuria
July 10, 2021	Featherweight	Ryan Hall	Ilia Topuria	Ilia Topuria
Dec. 5, 2020	Featherweight	Ilia Topuria	Damon Jackson	Ilia Topuria
Oct. 10, 2020	Featherweight	Youssef Zalal	Ilia Topuria	Ilia Topuria

Charles Oliveira History:

Date	Weight	Red Corner	Blue Corner	Winner
Nov. 16, 2024	Lightweight	Charles Oliveira	Michael Chandler	Charles Oliveira
April 13, 2024	Lightweight	Charles Oliveira	Arman Tsarukyan	Arman Tsarukyan
June 10, 2023	Lightweight	Charles Oliveira	Beneil Dariush	Charles Oliveira
Oct. 22, 2022	UFC Lightweight Title	Charles Oliveira	Islam Makhachev	Islam Makhachev
May 7, 2022	Lightweight	Charles Oliveira	Justin Gaethje	Charles Oliveira
Dec. 11, 2021	UFC Lightweight Title	Charles Oliveira	Dustin Poirier	Charles Oliveira
May 15, 2021	UFC Lightweight Title	Charles Oliveira	Michael Chandler	Charles Oliveira
Dec. 12, 2020	Lightweight	Tony Ferguson	Charles Oliveira	Charles Oliveira
March 14, 2020	Lightweight	Kevin Lee	Charles Oliveira	Charles Oliveira
Nov. 16, 2019	Lightweight	Charles Oliveira	Jared Gordon	Charles Oliveira
May 18, 2019	Lightweight	Charles Oliveira	Nik Lentz	Charles Oliveira
Feb. 2, 2019	Lightweight	Charles Oliveira	David Teymur	Charles Oliveira
Dec. 15, 2018	Lightweight	Jim Miller	Charles Oliveira	Charles Oliveira
Sept. 22, 2018	Lightweight	Charles Oliveira	Christos Giagos	Charles Oliveira
June 9, 2018	Lightweight	Clay Guida	Charles Oliveira	Charles Oliveira
Dec. 2, 2017	Lightweight	Charles Oliveira	Paul Felder	Paul Felder
April 8, 2017	Lightweight	Will Brooks	Charles Oliveira	Charles Oliveira
Nov. 5, 2016	Featherweight	Ricardo Lamas	Charles Oliveira	Ricardo Lamas
Aug. 27, 2016	Featherweight	Anthony Pettis	Charles Oliveira	Anthony Pettis
Dec. 19, 2015	Featherweight	Charles Oliveira	Myles Jury	Charles Oliveira
Aug. 23, 2015	Featherweight	Max Holloway	Charles Oliveira	Max Holloway
May 30, 2015	Featherweight	Nik Lentz	Charles Oliveira	Charles Oliveira
Dec. 12, 2014	Featherweight	Jeremy Stephens	Charles Oliveira	Charles Oliveira
June 28, 2014	Featherweight	Hatsu Hioki	Charles Oliveira	Charles Oliveira
Feb. 15, 2014	Featherweight	Charles Oliveira	Andy Ogle	Charles Oliveira
July 6, 2013	Featherweight	Frankie Edgar	Charles Oliveira	Frankie Edgar
Sept. 22, 2012	Featherweight	Cub Swanson	Charles Oliveira	Cub Swanson
June 1, 2012	Featherweight	Jonathan Brookins	Charles Oliveira	Charles Oliveira
Jan. 28, 2012	Featherweight	Charles Oliveira	Eric Wisely	Charles Oliveira
Aug. 14, 2011	Lightweight	Donald Cerrone	Charles Oliveira	Donald Cerrone
June 26, 2011	Lightweight	Nik Lentz	Charles Oliveira	None
Dec. 11, 2010	Lightweight	Jim Miller	Charles Oliveira	Jim Miller
Sept. 15, 2010	Lightweight	Efrain Escudero	Charles Oliveira	Charles Oliveira
Aug. 1, 2010	Lightweight	Darren Elkins	Charles Oliveira	Charles Oliveira