Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van - UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Joshua Van by Decision - Unanimous

Fight Info:

Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Elevation: 627.00m

Weight Class: Flyweight

Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.

Predictions

W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value

Fighter

Confidence

Dec

Sub

TKO

Odds

Brandon Royval

40.0%|4

20.0%|2

+100

Joshua Van

6.0

62.5%|5

0.0%|0

37.5%|3

-128

Fighter Comparison Chart

This radar chart shows each fighter's strengths across key fighting dimensions. Each dimension is scored 0-100 based on their percentile ranking within the Flyweight weight class.

Brandon Royval

Joshua Van

Flyweight Average (50th percentile)

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Weighted Scoring Report

Recent Prediction

This prediction includes detailed insights.

Weighted Score for WTAI Prediction

Predicted Winner: Joshua Van

Weight Class: Flyweight

Final Confidence: 3.78

Confidence Adjustments

Value: -30.0%

Reason: Base confidence < 10, decreased by 30%

Value: -10.0%

Reason: Predicted winner lost by KO/TKO within last 12 months

Fighter History & Outcomes

Brandon Royval

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

October 12, 2024: Brandon Royval won against Tatsuro Taira. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 47 - 48. 48 - 47. 47 - 48.
February 24, 2024: Brandon Royval won against Brandon Moreno. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 47 - 48. 49 - 46. 47 - 48.
December 16, 2023: Brandon Royval lost against Alexandre Pantoja. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 45 - 50. 45 - 50. 46 - 49.
April 15, 2023: Brandon Royval won against Matheus Nicolau. The fight ended in round 1 at 2:09. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
May 7, 2022: Brandon Royval won against Matt Schnell. The fight ended in round 1 at 2:14. Method of victory: Submission.
January 15, 2022: Brandon Royval won against Rogerio Bontorin. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 29 - 28. 28 - 29.
August 21, 2021: Brandon Royval lost against Alexandre Pantoja. The fight ended in round 2 at 1:46. Method of victory: Submission.
November 21, 2020: Brandon Royval lost against Brandon Moreno. The fight ended in round 1 at 4:59. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
September 26, 2020: Brandon Royval won against Kai Kara-France. The fight ended in round 2 at 0:48. Method of victory: Submission.
May 30, 2020: Brandon Royval won against Tim Elliott. The fight ended in round 2 at 3:18. Method of victory: Submission.

Joshua Van

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

June 7, 2025: Joshua Van won against Bruno Silva. The fight ended in round 3 at 4:01. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
March 8, 2025: Joshua Van won against Rei Tsuruya. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 27 - 30.
December 7, 2024: Joshua Van won against Cody Durden. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 26 - 30. 27 - 30.
September 14, 2024: Joshua Van won against Edgar Chairez. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
July 13, 2024: Joshua Van lost against Charles Johnson. The fight ended in round 3 at 0:20. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
January 13, 2024: Joshua Van won against Felipe Bunes. The fight ended in round 2 at 4:31. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
November 11, 2023: Joshua Van won against Kevin Borjas. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
June 24, 2023: Joshua Van won against Zhalgas Zhumagulov. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 29 - 28. 28 - 29.

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat	Brandon Royval	Joshua Van	Weight Class Average
Main Stats
Age	32	23	30
Height	69"	65"	67"
Reach	68"	65"	68"
Win Percentage	70.83%	87.50%	81.94%
Wins	17	15
Losses	8	2
Wins at Weight Class	7	7
Losses at Weight Class	2	1
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy	49.68%	60.46%	47.61%
Significant Striking Accuracy	39.53%	54.92%	41.98%
Strikes Landed Per Minute	7.169	10.701	4.599
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute	4.458	8.203	3.249
Knockdowns per Fight	0.374	0.551	0.434
Striking Impact Differential	34.30%	68.88%	2.06%
Significant Striking Impact Differential	16.80%	40.00%	0.27%
Striking Output Differential	85.80%	58.25%	2.32%
Significant Striking Output Differential	65.00%	27.63%	0.25%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio	41.53%	72.70%	87.70%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio	63.06%	93.17%	105.27%
Striking Defense Percentage	47.88%	59.22%	44.75%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight	1.248	0.000	0.873
Takedowns per Fight	0.749	0.965	1.308
Takedowns Attempted per Fight	0.998	1.516	3.731
Takedown Defense	121.43%	23.26%	86.27%
Takedown Accuracy	75.00%	63.64%	26.44%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute	3.418	5.824	1.993
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute	9.714	12.079	5.175
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute	1.697	3.151	1.982
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute	0.757	1.709	0.731
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute	1.115	2.113	1.037
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute	0.657	0.974	0.798
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute	0.283	0.671	0.525
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute	0.449	0.744	0.686
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute	0.707	1.139	0.651
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute	0.216	0.597	0.244
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute	0.275	0.717	0.347
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute	0.141	0.110	0.285

Brandon Royval History:

Date	Weight	Red Corner	Blue Corner	Winner
Oct. 12, 2024	Flyweight	Brandon Royval	Tatsuro Taira	Brandon Royval
Feb. 24, 2024	Flyweight	Brandon Moreno	Brandon Royval	Brandon Royval
Dec. 16, 2023	UFC Flyweight Title	Alexandre Pantoja	Brandon Royval	Alexandre Pantoja
April 15, 2023	Flyweight	Brandon Royval	Matheus Nicolau	Brandon Royval
May 7, 2022	Flyweight	Brandon Royval	Matt Schnell	Brandon Royval
Jan. 15, 2022	Flyweight	Brandon Royval	Rogerio Bontorin	Brandon Royval
Aug. 21, 2021	Flyweight	Alexandre Pantoja	Brandon Royval	Alexandre Pantoja
Nov. 21, 2020	Flyweight	Brandon Moreno	Brandon Royval	Brandon Moreno
Sept. 26, 2020	Flyweight	Kai Kara-France	Brandon Royval	Brandon Royval
May 30, 2020	Flyweight	Tim Elliott	Brandon Royval	Brandon Royval

Joshua Van History:

Date	Weight	Red Corner	Blue Corner	Winner
June 7, 2025	Flyweight	Bruno Silva	Joshua Van	Joshua Van
March 8, 2025	Flyweight	Joshua Van	Rei Tsuruya	Joshua Van
Dec. 7, 2024	Flyweight	Cody Durden	Joshua Van	Joshua Van
Sept. 14, 2024	Flyweight	Edgar Chairez	Joshua Van	Joshua Van
July 13, 2024	Flyweight	Joshua Van	Charles Johnson	Charles Johnson
Jan. 13, 2024	Flyweight	Joshua Van	Felipe Bunes	Joshua Van
Nov. 11, 2023	Flyweight	Joshua Van	Kevin Borjas	Joshua Van
June 24, 2023	Flyweight	Zhalgas Zhumagulov	Joshua Van	Joshua Van