Brandon Royval vs. Joshua Van - UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Joshua Van by Decision - Unanimous

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 627.00m
Weight Class: Flyweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Brandon Royval
7
3
+100
Joshua Van
6
6.0
-128

Weighted Scoring Report

Weighted Score for WTAI Prediction

Predicted Winner: Joshua Van

Weight Class: Flyweight

Final Confidence: 3.78

Confidence Adjustments

Value: -30.0%

Reason: Base confidence < 10, decreased by 30%

Value: -10.0%

Reason: Predicted winner lost by KO/TKO within last 12 months

Fighter History & Outcomes

Brandon Royval

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

  • October 12, 2024: Brandon Royval won against Tatsuro Taira. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 47 - 48. 48 - 47. 47 - 48.
  • February 24, 2024: Brandon Royval won against Brandon Moreno. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 47 - 48. 49 - 46. 47 - 48.
  • December 16, 2023: Brandon Royval lost against Alexandre Pantoja. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 45 - 50. 45 - 50. 46 - 49.
  • April 15, 2023: Brandon Royval won against Matheus Nicolau. The fight ended in round 1 at 2:09. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • May 7, 2022: Brandon Royval won against Matt Schnell. The fight ended in round 1 at 2:14. Method of victory: Submission.
  • January 15, 2022: Brandon Royval won against Rogerio Bontorin. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 29 - 28. 28 - 29.
  • August 21, 2021: Brandon Royval lost against Alexandre Pantoja. The fight ended in round 2 at 1:46. Method of victory: Submission.
  • November 21, 2020: Brandon Royval lost against Brandon Moreno. The fight ended in round 1 at 4:59. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • September 26, 2020: Brandon Royval won against Kai Kara-France. The fight ended in round 2 at 0:48. Method of victory: Submission.
  • May 30, 2020: Brandon Royval won against Tim Elliott. The fight ended in round 2 at 3:18. Method of victory: Submission.
Joshua Van

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

  • June 7, 2025: Joshua Van won against Bruno Silva. The fight ended in round 3 at 4:01. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • March 8, 2025: Joshua Van won against Rei Tsuruya. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 27 - 30.
  • December 7, 2024: Joshua Van won against Cody Durden. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 26 - 30. 27 - 30.
  • September 14, 2024: Joshua Van won against Edgar Chairez. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • July 13, 2024: Joshua Van lost against Charles Johnson. The fight ended in round 3 at 0:20. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • January 13, 2024: Joshua Van won against Felipe Bunes. The fight ended in round 2 at 4:31. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • November 11, 2023: Joshua Van won against Kevin Borjas. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • June 24, 2023: Joshua Van won against Zhalgas Zhumagulov. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 29 - 28. 28 - 29.

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat Brandon Royval Joshua Van
Main Stats
Age 32 23
Height 69" 65"
Reach 68" 65"
Win Percentage 70.83% 87.50%
Wins 17 15
Losses 8 2
Wins at Weight Class 7 7
Losses at Weight Class 2 1
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 49.68% 60.46%
Significant Striking Accuracy 39.53% 54.92%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 7.169 10.701
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.458 8.203
Knockdowns per Fight 0.374 0.551
Striking Impact Differential 34.30% 68.88%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 16.80% 40.00%
Striking Output Differential 85.80% 58.25%
Significant Striking Output Differential 65.00% 27.63%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 41.53% 72.70%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 63.06% 93.17%
Striking Defense Percentage 47.88% 59.22%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 1.248 0.000
Takedowns per Fight 0.749 0.965
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 0.998 1.516
Takedown Defense 121.43% 23.26%
Takedown Accuracy 75.00% 63.64%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 3.418 5.824
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 9.714 12.079
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 1.697 3.151
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.757 1.709
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.115 2.113
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.657 0.974
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.283 0.671
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.449 0.744
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.707 1.139
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.216 0.597
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.275 0.717
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.141 0.110
Brandon Royval History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Oct. 12, 2024 Flyweight Brandon Royval Tatsuro Taira Brandon Royval
Feb. 24, 2024 Flyweight Brandon Moreno Brandon Royval Brandon Royval
Dec. 16, 2023 UFC Flyweight Title Alexandre Pantoja Brandon Royval Alexandre Pantoja
April 15, 2023 Flyweight Brandon Royval Matheus Nicolau Brandon Royval
May 7, 2022 Flyweight Brandon Royval Matt Schnell Brandon Royval
Jan. 15, 2022 Flyweight Brandon Royval Rogerio Bontorin Brandon Royval
Aug. 21, 2021 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Brandon Royval Alexandre Pantoja
Nov. 21, 2020 Flyweight Brandon Moreno Brandon Royval Brandon Moreno
Sept. 26, 2020 Flyweight Kai Kara-France Brandon Royval Brandon Royval
May 30, 2020 Flyweight Tim Elliott Brandon Royval Brandon Royval
Joshua Van History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
June 7, 2025 Flyweight Bruno Silva Joshua Van Joshua Van
March 8, 2025 Flyweight Joshua Van Rei Tsuruya Joshua Van
Dec. 7, 2024 Flyweight Cody Durden Joshua Van Joshua Van
Sept. 14, 2024 Flyweight Edgar Chairez Joshua Van Joshua Van
July 13, 2024 Flyweight Joshua Van Charles Johnson Charles Johnson
Jan. 13, 2024 Flyweight Joshua Van Felipe Bunes Joshua Van
Nov. 11, 2023 Flyweight Joshua Van Kevin Borjas Joshua Van
June 24, 2023 Flyweight Zhalgas Zhumagulov Joshua Van Joshua Van