The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
This radar chart shows each fighter's strengths across key fighting dimensions. Each dimension is scored 0-100 based on their percentile ranking within the Flyweight weight class.
Recent Prediction
This prediction includes detailed insights.
Predicted Winner: Alexandre Pantoja
Weight Class: Flyweight
Final Confidence: 20.4
Value: +20.0%
Reason: Base confidence between 14 and 21, increased by 20%
Weight Change: Staying at usual weight
Weight Change: Staying at usual weight
| Stat | Alexandre Pantoja | Kai Kara-France | Weight Class Average | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Main Stats | ||||
| Age | 35 | 32 | 32 | |
| Height | 65" | 64" | 66" | |
| Reach | 67" | 69" | 68" | |
| Win Percentage | 85.29% | 69.44% | 81.67% | |
| Wins | 30 | 25 | ||
| Losses | 5 | 12 | ||
| Wins at Weight Class | 4 | 0 | ||
| Losses at Weight Class | 0 | 0 | ||
| Striking Stats | ||||
| Striking Accuracy | 54.04% | 43.74% | 45.66% | |
| Significant Striking Accuracy | 50.08% | 39.60% | 41.23% | |
| Strikes Landed Per Minute | 5.389 | 5.532 | 4.786 | |
| Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.411 | 4.563 | 3.794 | |
| Knockdowns per Fight | 0.296 | 0.813 | 0.426 | |
| Striking Impact Differential | -2.50% | 22.00% | 5.66% | |
| Significant Striking Impact Differential | 6.25% | 16.58% | 7.07% | |
| Striking Output Differential | 2.75% | 33.17% | 13.48% | |
| Significant Striking Output Differential | 12.06% | 27.58% | 14.82% | |
| Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 77.36% | 112.24% | 73.45% | |
| Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 89.25% | 132.94% | 88.99% | |
| Striking Defense Percentage | 50.13% | 65.35% | 48.56% | |
| Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
| Submissions per Fight | 0.889 | 0.000 | 0.872 | |
| Takedowns per Fight | 2.742 | 0.609 | 1.544 | |
| Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 5.780 | 1.828 | 3.505 | |
| Takedown Defense | 46.15% | 13.64% | 58.30% | |
| Takedown Accuracy | 47.44% | 33.33% | 43.84% | |
| Head Stats | ||||
| Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 2.791 | 2.905 | 2.435 | |
| Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 6.679 | 9.194 | 6.458 | |
| Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 3.206 | 2.404 | 2.357 | |
| Body Stats | ||||
| Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.944 | 0.650 | 0.801 | |
| Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 1.299 | 1.083 | 1.155 | |
| Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.435 | 0.515 | 0.419 | |
| Leg Stats | ||||
| Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.677 | 1.009 | 0.557 | |
| Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 0.830 | 1.246 | 0.705 | |
| Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.277 | 0.298 | 0.390 | |
| Clinch Stats | ||||
| Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.459 | 0.102 | 0.384 | |
| Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.618 | 0.163 | 0.509 | |
| Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.277 | 0.095 | 0.250 | |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec. 7, 2024 | UFC Flyweight Title | Alexandre Pantoja | Kai Asakura | Alexandre Pantoja | |
| May 4, 2024 | UFC Flyweight Title | Alexandre Pantoja | Steve Erceg | Alexandre Pantoja | |
| Dec. 16, 2023 | UFC Flyweight Title | Alexandre Pantoja | Brandon Royval | Alexandre Pantoja | |
| July 8, 2023 | UFC Flyweight Title | Brandon Moreno | Alexandre Pantoja | Alexandre Pantoja | |
| July 30, 2022 | Flyweight | Alexandre Pantoja | Alex Perez | Alexandre Pantoja | |
| Aug. 21, 2021 | Flyweight | Alexandre Pantoja | Brandon Royval | Alexandre Pantoja | |
| Feb. 6, 2021 | Flyweight | Alexandre Pantoja | Manel Kape | Alexandre Pantoja | |
| July 18, 2020 | Flyweight | Alexandre Pantoja | Askar Askarov | Askar Askarov | |
| Dec. 21, 2019 | Flyweight | Alexandre Pantoja | Matt Schnell | Alexandre Pantoja | |
| July 27, 2019 | Flyweight | Alexandre Pantoja | Deiveson Figueiredo | Deiveson Figueiredo | |
| April 13, 2019 | Flyweight | Wilson Reis | Alexandre Pantoja | Alexandre Pantoja | |
| Nov. 17, 2018 | Flyweight | Alexandre Pantoja | Yuta Sasaki | Alexandre Pantoja | |
| May 19, 2018 | Flyweight | Brandon Moreno | Alexandre Pantoja | Alexandre Pantoja | |
| Jan. 20, 2018 | Flyweight | Dustin Ortiz | Alexandre Pantoja | Dustin Ortiz | |
| July 16, 2017 | Flyweight | Alexandre Pantoja | Neil Seery | Alexandre Pantoja | |
| Jan. 28, 2017 | Flyweight | Alexandre Pantoja | Eric Shelton | Alexandre Pantoja |
| Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug. 17, 2024 | Flyweight | Kai Kara-France | Steve Erceg | Kai Kara-France | |
| June 3, 2023 | Flyweight | Kai Kara-France | Amir Albazi | Amir Albazi | |
| July 30, 2022 | UFC Interim Flyweight Title | Brandon Moreno | Kai Kara-France | Brandon Moreno | |
| March 26, 2022 | Flyweight | Askar Askarov | Kai Kara-France | Kai Kara-France | |
| Dec. 11, 2021 | Flyweight | Kai Kara-France | Cody Garbrandt | Kai Kara-France | |
| March 6, 2021 | Flyweight | Rogerio Bontorin | Kai Kara-France | Kai Kara-France | |
| Sept. 26, 2020 | Flyweight | Kai Kara-France | Brandon Royval | Brandon Royval | |
| Feb. 22, 2020 | Flyweight | Kai Kara-France | Tyson Nam | Kai Kara-France | |
| Dec. 14, 2019 | Flyweight | Brandon Moreno | Kai Kara-France | Brandon Moreno | |
| Aug. 31, 2019 | Flyweight | Kai Kara-France | Mark De La Rosa | Kai Kara-France | |
| Feb. 9, 2019 | Flyweight | Kai Kara-France | Raulian Paiva | Kai Kara-France | |
| Dec. 1, 2018 | Flyweight | Elias Garcia | Kai Kara-France | Kai Kara-France |