Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France - UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Alexandre Pantoja by Submission

Fight Info:
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA
Elevation: 627.00m
Weight Class: Flyweight
Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.
Predictions
W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
Confidence
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Alexandre Pantoja
17
18
9
3.5
-280
Kai Kara-France
+210

Weighted Scoring Report

Weighted Score for WTAI Prediction

Predicted Winner: Alexandre Pantoja

Weight Class: Flyweight

Final Confidence: 20.4

Confidence Adjustments

Value: +20.0%

Reason: Base confidence between 14 and 21, increased by 20%

Fighter History & Outcomes

Alexandre Pantoja

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

  • December 7, 2024: Alexandre Pantoja won against Kai Asakura. The fight ended in round 2 at 2:05. Method of victory: Submission.
  • May 4, 2024: Alexandre Pantoja won against Steve Erceg. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 47 - 48. 47 - 48. 46 - 49.
  • December 16, 2023: Alexandre Pantoja won against Brandon Royval. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 45 - 50. 45 - 50. 46 - 49.
  • July 8, 2023: Alexandre Pantoja won against Brandon Moreno. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 49 - 46. 47 - 48. 47 - 48.
  • July 30, 2022: Alexandre Pantoja won against Alex Perez. The fight ended in round 1 at 1:31. Method of victory: Submission.
  • August 21, 2021: Alexandre Pantoja won against Brandon Royval. The fight ended in round 2 at 1:46. Method of victory: Submission.
  • February 6, 2021: Alexandre Pantoja won against Manel Kape. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 27 - 30.
  • July 18, 2020: Alexandre Pantoja lost against Askar Askarov. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • December 21, 2019: Alexandre Pantoja won against Matt Schnell. The fight ended in round 1 at 4:17. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • July 27, 2019: Alexandre Pantoja lost against Deiveson Figueiredo. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 27 - 30.
  • April 13, 2019: Alexandre Pantoja won against Wilson Reis. The fight ended in round 1 at 2:58. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • November 17, 2018: Alexandre Pantoja won against Yuta Sasaki. The fight ended in round 1 at 2:18. Method of victory: Submission.
  • May 19, 2018: Alexandre Pantoja won against Brandon Moreno. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 26 - 30. 26 - 30. 27 - 29.
  • January 20, 2018: Alexandre Pantoja lost against Dustin Ortiz. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • July 16, 2017: Alexandre Pantoja won against Neil Seery. The fight ended in round 3 at 2:31. Method of victory: Submission.
  • January 28, 2017: Alexandre Pantoja won against Eric Shelton. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 29 - 28. 28 - 29.
Kai Kara-France

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

  • August 17, 2024: Kai Kara-France won against Steve Erceg. The fight ended in round 1 at 4:04. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • June 3, 2023: Kai Kara-France lost against Amir Albazi. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 47 - 48. 48 - 47. 47 - 48.
  • July 30, 2022: Kai Kara-France lost against Brandon Moreno. The fight ended in round 3 at 4:34. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • March 26, 2022: Kai Kara-France won against Askar Askarov. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
  • December 11, 2021: Kai Kara-France won against Cody Garbrandt. The fight ended in round 1 at 3:21. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • March 6, 2021: Kai Kara-France won against Rogerio Bontorin. The fight ended in round 1 at 4:55. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
  • September 26, 2020: Kai Kara-France lost against Brandon Royval. The fight ended in round 2 at 0:48. Method of victory: Submission.
  • February 22, 2020: Kai Kara-France won against Tyson Nam. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 27 - 30.
  • December 14, 2019: Kai Kara-France lost against Brandon Moreno. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 27 - 30.
  • August 31, 2019: Kai Kara-France won against Mark De La Rosa. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 28 - 29. 27 - 30.
  • February 9, 2019: Kai Kara-France won against Raulian Paiva. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 29 - 28. 28 - 29.
  • December 1, 2018: Kai Kara-France won against Elias Garcia. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 25 - 30. 25 - 30. 26 - 30.

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat Alexandre Pantoja Kai Kara-France
Main Stats
Age 35 32
Height 65" 64"
Reach 67" 69"
Win Percentage 85.29% 69.44%
Wins 30 25
Losses 5 12
Wins at Weight Class 4 0
Losses at Weight Class 0 0
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy 54.04% 43.74%
Significant Striking Accuracy 50.08% 39.60%
Strikes Landed Per Minute 5.389 5.532
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute 4.411 4.563
Knockdowns per Fight 0.296 0.813
Striking Impact Differential -2.50% 22.00%
Significant Striking Impact Differential 6.25% 16.58%
Striking Output Differential 2.75% 33.17%
Significant Striking Output Differential 12.06% 27.58%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 77.36% 112.24%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio 89.25% 132.94%
Striking Defense Percentage 50.13% 65.35%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight 0.889 0.000
Takedowns per Fight 2.742 0.609
Takedowns Attempted per Fight 5.780 1.828
Takedown Defense 46.15% 13.64%
Takedown Accuracy 47.44% 33.33%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute 2.791 2.905
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute 6.679 9.194
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute 3.206 2.404
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute 0.944 0.650
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute 1.299 1.083
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.435 0.515
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute 0.677 1.009
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute 0.830 1.246
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute 0.277 0.298
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute 0.459 0.102
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute 0.618 0.163
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute 0.277 0.095
Alexandre Pantoja History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Dec. 7, 2024 UFC Flyweight Title Alexandre Pantoja Kai Asakura Alexandre Pantoja
May 4, 2024 UFC Flyweight Title Alexandre Pantoja Steve Erceg Alexandre Pantoja
Dec. 16, 2023 UFC Flyweight Title Alexandre Pantoja Brandon Royval Alexandre Pantoja
July 8, 2023 UFC Flyweight Title Brandon Moreno Alexandre Pantoja Alexandre Pantoja
July 30, 2022 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Alex Perez Alexandre Pantoja
Aug. 21, 2021 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Brandon Royval Alexandre Pantoja
Feb. 6, 2021 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Manel Kape Alexandre Pantoja
July 18, 2020 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Askar Askarov Askar Askarov
Dec. 21, 2019 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Matt Schnell Alexandre Pantoja
July 27, 2019 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Deiveson Figueiredo Deiveson Figueiredo
April 13, 2019 Flyweight Wilson Reis Alexandre Pantoja Alexandre Pantoja
Nov. 17, 2018 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Yuta Sasaki Alexandre Pantoja
May 19, 2018 Flyweight Brandon Moreno Alexandre Pantoja Alexandre Pantoja
Jan. 20, 2018 Flyweight Dustin Ortiz Alexandre Pantoja Dustin Ortiz
July 16, 2017 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Neil Seery Alexandre Pantoja
Jan. 28, 2017 Flyweight Alexandre Pantoja Eric Shelton Alexandre Pantoja
Kai Kara-France History:
Date Weight Red Corner Blue Corner Winner
Aug. 17, 2024 Flyweight Kai Kara-France Steve Erceg Kai Kara-France
June 3, 2023 Flyweight Kai Kara-France Amir Albazi Amir Albazi
July 30, 2022 UFC Interim Flyweight Title Brandon Moreno Kai Kara-France Brandon Moreno
March 26, 2022 Flyweight Askar Askarov Kai Kara-France Kai Kara-France
Dec. 11, 2021 Flyweight Kai Kara-France Cody Garbrandt Kai Kara-France
March 6, 2021 Flyweight Rogerio Bontorin Kai Kara-France Kai Kara-France
Sept. 26, 2020 Flyweight Kai Kara-France Brandon Royval Brandon Royval
Feb. 22, 2020 Flyweight Kai Kara-France Tyson Nam Kai Kara-France
Dec. 14, 2019 Flyweight Brandon Moreno Kai Kara-France Brandon Moreno
Aug. 31, 2019 Flyweight Kai Kara-France Mark De La Rosa Kai Kara-France
Feb. 9, 2019 Flyweight Kai Kara-France Raulian Paiva Kai Kara-France
Dec. 1, 2018 Flyweight Elias Garcia Kai Kara-France Kai Kara-France