Alexandre Pantoja vs. Kai Kara-France - UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Results & AI Breakdown

Winner: Alexandre Pantoja by Submission

Fight Info:

Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Elevation: 627.00m

Weight Class: Flyweight

Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org…

The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.

The predictions below are shown in dark grey if they were correct, incorxrect predictions are shown in red.

Predictions

W = WTAI Model O = Profit Model P = Plain Model EV = Expected Value

Fighter

Confidence

Dec

Sub

TKO

Odds

Alexandre Pantoja

3.5

56.25%|9

31.25%|5

12.5%|2

-280

Kai Kara-France

58.33%|7

8.33%|1

33.33%|4

+210

Weighted Scoring Report

Recent Prediction

This prediction includes detailed insights.

Weighted Score for WTAI Prediction

Predicted Winner: Alexandre Pantoja

Weight Class: Flyweight

Final Confidence: 20.4

Confidence Adjustments

Value: +20.0%

Reason: Base confidence between 14 and 21, increased by 20%

Fighter History & Outcomes

Alexandre Pantoja

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

December 7, 2024: Alexandre Pantoja won against Kai Asakura. The fight ended in round 2 at 2:05. Method of victory: Submission.
May 4, 2024: Alexandre Pantoja won against Steve Erceg. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 47 - 48. 47 - 48. 46 - 49.
December 16, 2023: Alexandre Pantoja won against Brandon Royval. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 45 - 50. 45 - 50. 46 - 49.
July 8, 2023: Alexandre Pantoja won against Brandon Moreno. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 49 - 46. 47 - 48. 47 - 48.
July 30, 2022: Alexandre Pantoja won against Alex Perez. The fight ended in round 1 at 1:31. Method of victory: Submission.
August 21, 2021: Alexandre Pantoja won against Brandon Royval. The fight ended in round 2 at 1:46. Method of victory: Submission.
February 6, 2021: Alexandre Pantoja won against Manel Kape. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 27 - 30.
July 18, 2020: Alexandre Pantoja lost against Askar Askarov. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
December 21, 2019: Alexandre Pantoja won against Matt Schnell. The fight ended in round 1 at 4:17. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
July 27, 2019: Alexandre Pantoja lost against Deiveson Figueiredo. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 27 - 30.
April 13, 2019: Alexandre Pantoja won against Wilson Reis. The fight ended in round 1 at 2:58. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
November 17, 2018: Alexandre Pantoja won against Yuta Sasaki. The fight ended in round 1 at 2:18. Method of victory: Submission.
May 19, 2018: Alexandre Pantoja won against Brandon Moreno. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 26 - 30. 26 - 30. 27 - 29.
January 20, 2018: Alexandre Pantoja lost against Dustin Ortiz. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
July 16, 2017: Alexandre Pantoja won against Neil Seery. The fight ended in round 3 at 2:31. Method of victory: Submission.
January 28, 2017: Alexandre Pantoja won against Eric Shelton. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 29 - 28. 28 - 29.

Kai Kara-France

Weight Change: Staying at usual weight

Fight History:

August 17, 2024: Kai Kara-France won against Steve Erceg. The fight ended in round 1 at 4:04. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
June 3, 2023: Kai Kara-France lost against Amir Albazi. The fight ended in round 5 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 47 - 48. 48 - 47. 47 - 48.
July 30, 2022: Kai Kara-France lost against Brandon Moreno. The fight ended in round 3 at 4:34. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
March 26, 2022: Kai Kara-France won against Askar Askarov. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 28 - 29.
December 11, 2021: Kai Kara-France won against Cody Garbrandt. The fight ended in round 1 at 3:21. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
March 6, 2021: Kai Kara-France won against Rogerio Bontorin. The fight ended in round 1 at 4:55. Method of victory: KO/TKO.
September 26, 2020: Kai Kara-France lost against Brandon Royval. The fight ended in round 2 at 0:48. Method of victory: Submission.
February 22, 2020: Kai Kara-France won against Tyson Nam. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 27 - 30. 27 - 30.
December 14, 2019: Kai Kara-France lost against Brandon Moreno. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 28 - 29. 27 - 30.
August 31, 2019: Kai Kara-France won against Mark De La Rosa. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 27 - 30. 28 - 29. 27 - 30.
February 9, 2019: Kai Kara-France won against Raulian Paiva. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a split decision. Additional details: 28 - 29. 29 - 28. 28 - 29.
December 1, 2018: Kai Kara-France won against Elias Garcia. The fight ended in round 3 at 5:00. It was a unanimous decision. Additional details: 25 - 30. 25 - 30. 26 - 30.

Fight Analysis

Stat Breakdown

Stat	Alexandre Pantoja	Kai Kara-France	Weight Class Average
Main Stats
Age	35	32	32
Height	65"	64"	66"
Reach	67"	69"	68"
Win Percentage	85.29%	69.44%	81.67%
Wins	30	25
Losses	5	12
Wins at Weight Class	4	0
Losses at Weight Class	0	0
Striking Stats
Striking Accuracy	54.04%	43.74%	45.66%
Significant Striking Accuracy	50.08%	39.60%	41.23%
Strikes Landed Per Minute	5.389	5.532	4.786
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute	4.411	4.563	3.794
Knockdowns per Fight	0.296	0.813	0.426
Striking Impact Differential	-2.50%	22.00%	5.66%
Significant Striking Impact Differential	6.25%	16.58%	7.07%
Striking Output Differential	2.75%	33.17%	13.48%
Significant Striking Output Differential	12.06%	27.58%	14.82%
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio	77.36%	112.24%	73.45%
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio	89.25%	132.94%	88.99%
Striking Defense Percentage	50.13%	65.35%	48.56%
Takedown and Submission Stats
Submissions per Fight	0.889	0.000	0.872
Takedowns per Fight	2.742	0.609	1.544
Takedowns Attempted per Fight	5.780	1.828	3.505
Takedown Defense	46.15%	13.64%	58.30%
Takedown Accuracy	47.44%	33.33%	43.84%
Head Stats
Head Strikes Landed per Minute	2.791	2.905	2.435
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute	6.679	9.194	6.458
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute	3.206	2.404	2.357
Body Stats
Body Strikes Landed per Minute	0.944	0.650	0.801
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute	1.299	1.083	1.155
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute	0.435	0.515	0.419
Leg Stats
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute	0.677	1.009	0.557
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute	0.830	1.246	0.705
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute	0.277	0.298	0.390
Clinch Stats
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute	0.459	0.102	0.384
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute	0.618	0.163	0.509
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute	0.277	0.095	0.250

Alexandre Pantoja History:

Date	Weight	Red Corner	Blue Corner	Winner
Dec. 7, 2024	UFC Flyweight Title	Alexandre Pantoja	Kai Asakura	Alexandre Pantoja
May 4, 2024	UFC Flyweight Title	Alexandre Pantoja	Steve Erceg	Alexandre Pantoja
Dec. 16, 2023	UFC Flyweight Title	Alexandre Pantoja	Brandon Royval	Alexandre Pantoja
July 8, 2023	UFC Flyweight Title	Brandon Moreno	Alexandre Pantoja	Alexandre Pantoja
July 30, 2022	Flyweight	Alexandre Pantoja	Alex Perez	Alexandre Pantoja
Aug. 21, 2021	Flyweight	Alexandre Pantoja	Brandon Royval	Alexandre Pantoja
Feb. 6, 2021	Flyweight	Alexandre Pantoja	Manel Kape	Alexandre Pantoja
July 18, 2020	Flyweight	Alexandre Pantoja	Askar Askarov	Askar Askarov
Dec. 21, 2019	Flyweight	Alexandre Pantoja	Matt Schnell	Alexandre Pantoja
July 27, 2019	Flyweight	Alexandre Pantoja	Deiveson Figueiredo	Deiveson Figueiredo
April 13, 2019	Flyweight	Wilson Reis	Alexandre Pantoja	Alexandre Pantoja
Nov. 17, 2018	Flyweight	Alexandre Pantoja	Yuta Sasaki	Alexandre Pantoja
May 19, 2018	Flyweight	Brandon Moreno	Alexandre Pantoja	Alexandre Pantoja
Jan. 20, 2018	Flyweight	Dustin Ortiz	Alexandre Pantoja	Dustin Ortiz
July 16, 2017	Flyweight	Alexandre Pantoja	Neil Seery	Alexandre Pantoja
Jan. 28, 2017	Flyweight	Alexandre Pantoja	Eric Shelton	Alexandre Pantoja

Kai Kara-France History:

Date	Weight	Red Corner	Blue Corner	Winner
Aug. 17, 2024	Flyweight	Kai Kara-France	Steve Erceg	Kai Kara-France
June 3, 2023	Flyweight	Kai Kara-France	Amir Albazi	Amir Albazi
July 30, 2022	UFC Interim Flyweight Title	Brandon Moreno	Kai Kara-France	Brandon Moreno
March 26, 2022	Flyweight	Askar Askarov	Kai Kara-France	Kai Kara-France
Dec. 11, 2021	Flyweight	Kai Kara-France	Cody Garbrandt	Kai Kara-France
March 6, 2021	Flyweight	Rogerio Bontorin	Kai Kara-France	Kai Kara-France
Sept. 26, 2020	Flyweight	Kai Kara-France	Brandon Royval	Brandon Royval
Feb. 22, 2020	Flyweight	Kai Kara-France	Tyson Nam	Kai Kara-France
Dec. 14, 2019	Flyweight	Brandon Moreno	Kai Kara-France	Brandon Moreno
Aug. 31, 2019	Flyweight	Kai Kara-France	Mark De La Rosa	Kai Kara-France
Feb. 9, 2019	Flyweight	Kai Kara-France	Raulian Paiva	Kai Kara-France
Dec. 1, 2018	Flyweight	Elias Garcia	Kai Kara-France	Kai Kara-France