Analysis: Modestas Bukauskas vs Ion Cutelaba

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Modestas Bukauskas to Win

Score: 5
Odds:
Modestas Bukauskas: -113
Ion Cutelaba: -113

Modestas Bukauskas's Breakdown

Bukauskas brings technical striking and improved fight management to this matchup. His recent performances show a fighter who's evolving beyond just being a power puncher. Against Rafael Cerqueira in February 2025, he secured a first-round KO, demonstrating his ability to finish fights quickly when he finds his range. His win over Marcin Prachnio showed his submission skills, catching his opponent with a well-timed finish after wearing him down with technical striking.

What makes Bukauskas dangerous is his ability to maintain distance with front kicks and jabs. Against Tyson Pedro, he employed shifting right hooks to close distance effectively, following with left straights from southpaw stance. This combination proved crucial in securing a unanimous decision victory. His footwork has improved significantly, allowing him to cut off the cage against mobile opponents.

Bukauskas's 78-inch reach gives him a 3-inch advantage over Cutelaba - something he'll need to exploit to keep the aggressive Moldovan at bay. His defensive awareness has improved since his 2021 loss to Khalil Rountree Jr., though he still shows vulnerability when backing up against the fence.

Ion Cutelaba's Breakdown

Cutelaba is the definition of first-round fury. "The Hulk" lives up to his nickname with explosive takedowns and violent striking combinations. His recent submission win over Ibo Aslan showcased improved patience, waiting for the right moment to attack rather than blitzing recklessly. Against Ivan Erslan, he demonstrated tactical awareness by neutralizing his opponent's kicking game with well-timed counters.

However, Cutelaba's aggressive style comes with clear limitations. His cardio remains questionable beyond the first round, as seen in his loss to Philipe Lins where he struggled to maintain his pace. Against Kennedy Nzechukwu, his tendency to overcommit on entries left him vulnerable to counter strikes, resulting in a second-round KO loss.

What makes Cutelaba dangerous is his wrestling pedigree and clinch work. He averages over 4 takedowns per fight with a 52% accuracy rate. His ability to pin opponents against the cage and deliver short elbows and knees has been effective throughout his career. If he can close distance on Bukauskas, his superior wrestling could be the difference maker.

Analysis and Key Points

• First round will be critical - Cutelaba's 15 first-round finishes make him extremely dangerous early, but his effectiveness drops dramatically after the opening frame
• Reach advantage favors Bukauskas - His 3-inch reach edge will be crucial for maintaining distance with jabs and front kicks
• Clinch battle - Bukauskas showed improved clinch work against Prachnio, but Cutelaba's Sambo background gives him the edge in close quarters
• Cardio differential - Bukauskas has shown better endurance in recent fights, winning decisions against Pedro and Pauga while Cutelaba tends to fade
• Technical striking vs. explosive power - Bukauskas's more measured approach contrasts with Cutelaba's wild combinations

Understanding the Prediction

Several key factors influenced WolfTicketsAI's prediction:

• Odds increased the model's score by 6.0, suggesting the betting market sees value in Bukauskas
• TrueSkill increased the score by 3.0, indicating Bukauskas's overall skill level is rated higher
• Recent Win Percentage boosted the score by 3.0, reflecting Bukauskas's better recent form
• Reach advantage for Bukauskas added 1.0 to the score
• Striking Defense Percentage contributed 1.0, highlighting Bukauskas's superior defensive skills

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record predicting these fighters. The model correctly predicted Bukauskas's win over Cerqueira but was wrong about three of his previous fights against Prachnio, Pauga, and Pedro - all of which Bukauskas won despite being predicted to lose.

For Cutelaba, the model correctly predicted his win against Aslan and his loss to Nzechukwu, but missed on his fights against Boser, Walker, and Spann. This inconsistency reflects both fighters' volatile performances, though the model seems to have a better recent read on Cutelaba.

Conclusion

Bukauskas has the technical tools to neutralize Cutelaba's aggressive approach. His superior reach, improved defensive awareness, and better cardio should allow him to weather the early storm and take control as the fight progresses. While Cutelaba's explosive first round makes him dangerous early, Bukauskas's more measured approach and recent improvements give him the edge. WolfTicketsAI's prediction of a Bukauskas victory looks solid based on the fighters' recent performances and stylistic matchup.