Analysis: Jessica Andrade vs Jasmine Jasudavicius

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jasmine Jasudavicius to Win

Score: 23
Odds:
Jessica Andrade: 220
Jasmine Jasudavicius: -295

Jessica Andrade's Breakdown

Andrade enters this fight on a concerning trajectory, having lost three of her last four bouts. Her most recent outing against Natalia Silva was particularly troubling - she appeared hesitant and defensive, flinching at feints before taking significant damage. This marks a stark decline from the fighter who once bullied opponents with relentless forward pressure and explosive power.

When Andrade is at her best, she's a physical force who overwhelms opponents with volume striking and clinch dominance. Against Marina Rodriguez in April, she showed flashes of her old form, securing a split decision through aggressive pressure. Her body-head combinations and ability to cut off the cage have historically been her greatest weapons.

Andrade's slam KO of Rose Namajunas in 2019 showcased her exceptional strength, but recent performances suggest this physicality is waning. Against technical strikers like Silva and Yan Xiaonan (who knocked her out in 2023), she's struggled to close distance effectively. More concerning, her once-legendary durability appears compromised - she's been finished in three of her last five losses.

In the grappling department, Andrade has shown vulnerability when forced to work off her back, as evidenced in her submission losses to Erin Blanchfield and Tatiana Suarez. Her tendency to overcommit to strikes leaves her open to reactive takedowns, a weakness Jasudavicius will likely target.

Jasmine Jasudavicius's Breakdown

Jasudavicius comes in riding a three-fight win streak, with her most recent victory being a submission win over Ariane da Silva in November 2024. What stands out about Jasudavicius is her relentless pressure and exceptional cardio - she actually gets stronger as fights progress, securing two of her recent wins in the third round.

Her brown belt in BJJ has translated well to MMA, with her anaconda and D'Arce choke submissions becoming signature weapons. Against Priscila Cachoeira, she displayed complete control on the ground, methodically breaking down her opponent before securing the submission.

Jasudavicius effectively uses her 5'7" frame and 68" reach (6" reach advantage over Andrade) to control distance before initiating clinch exchanges. Her takedown game, while not always technically perfect with just a 42% accuracy rate, is persistent - she averages 5.5 takedown attempts per fight and eventually wears opponents down through sheer determination.

Where Jasudavicius truly excels is in her pace management. She maintains a high output throughout fights, landing nearly 10 strikes per minute in recent bouts. Against Miranda Maverick, she demonstrated her ability to neutralize a more technically proficient striker through constant pressure and well-timed clinch entries.

Analysis and Key Points

• Size advantage: Jasudavicius's 6-inch reach advantage will be significant against the shorter Andrade, who must close distance to be effective
• Cardio differential: Andrade has shown a tendency to fade in later rounds, while Jasudavicius gets stronger - she's secured two recent third-round finishes
• Declining durability: Andrade has been finished in three of her last five losses, suggesting her once-legendary chin may be compromised
• Grappling matchup: Andrade struggles when forced to work off her back, a position Jasudavicius will likely put her in repeatedly
• Momentum factor: Jasudavicius enters on a three-fight win streak, while Andrade has lost three of her last four

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Jasudavicius is significantly impacted by several key factors:

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 15 points, indicating the betting market strongly favors Jasudavicius
• Reach decreased the score by 2 points, highlighting Jasudavicius's 6-inch reach advantage
• Recent win percentage decreased the score by 2 points, reflecting Andrade's 1-3 record in her last four fights
• Significant striking impact differential increased the score by 1 point, one of the few metrics favoring Andrade

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record predicting Andrade's fights, going 4-3 overall. The model correctly predicted her losses to Tatiana Suarez and Erin Blanchfield, but missed on her upset loss to Yan Xiaonan. Most recently, it accurately called her win over Marina Rodriguez.

For Jasudavicius, the model has been more consistent, correctly predicting three of her last four fights, including her upset win over Miranda Maverick. The model's only miss was predicting Tracy Cortez would defeat her, which proved correct.

Conclusion

Jasudavicius presents a stylistic nightmare for the current version of Andrade. Her size advantage, relentless pressure, and superior cardio will likely neutralize Andrade's diminishing physical gifts. Expect Jasudavicius to weather early storms, gradually wear down Andrade with clinch work and takedowns, and either secure a late submission or dominant decision. WolfTicketsAI's prediction of a Jasudavicius victory appears well-founded given Andrade's recent decline and Jasudavicius's momentum.