Analysis: Daniel Santos vs JeongYeong Lee

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Daniel Santos to Win

Score: 3
Odds:
Daniel Santos: -128
JeongYeong Lee: 100

Daniel Santos's Breakdown

Santos brings a dynamic offensive arsenal to this featherweight clash. His UFC career shows clear evolution - from his unanimous decision loss to Julio Arce in his debut to back-to-back wins over John Castaneda and Johnny Munoz. Against Castaneda, Santos showed remarkable durability, weathering early head kicks before securing a second-round TKO. His pressure-based approach wore Castaneda down, capitalizing when his opponent gassed out hunting for a finish.

Santos's body work stands out as a signature weapon. Against Munoz, he repeatedly targeted the body with southpaw left kicks and varied punches, systematically sapping his opponent's energy. This body assault proved crucial in diminishing Munoz's ability to execute takedowns later in the fight.

His defensive wrestling has improved significantly. Against Munoz, Santos showcased excellent "switch" techniques to escape compromised positions when Munoz attempted to take his back. His scrambling ability was on full display when he escaped from a body triangle and rear-naked choke attempt by using an advanced escape technique - rolling to the opposite side from conventional wisdom and standing up.

Santos averages 1.9 takedowns per fight with a 50% accuracy rate, showing he's not afraid to mix in wrestling when needed. His recent fights show he's attempting 4.18 takedowns per fight, indicating an increasing willingness to use his grappling.

JeongYeong Lee's Breakdown

Lee comes into this bout after a devastating first-round TKO loss to Hyder Amil in July 2024. That fight exposed significant defensive vulnerabilities - Lee was overwhelmed by Amil's relentless barrage of punches, unable to counter effectively against the 38-punch combination that led to the finish.

Before that setback, Lee had shown promise with a unanimous decision win over Blake Bilder in February 2024. In that fight, Lee displayed a more measured approach, using a double jab to right straight combination effectively while mixing in body shots. His takedown defense looked solid against Bilder, allowing him to keep the fight in his preferred striking range.

Lee's statistical profile shows a fighter who lands 4.66 strikes per minute with impressive 61.4% striking accuracy. However, his defensive metrics are concerning - he absorbs significant strikes at a high rate and has shown vulnerability to pressure fighters who can maintain a high pace.

While Lee has a 6-inch reach advantage (73" vs 67"), his recent performance against Amil suggests he struggles to use this advantage effectively against aggressive opponents who close distance quickly.

Analysis and Key Points

• Recent Form: Santos is 2-1 in the UFC with back-to-back wins, while Lee is coming off a brutal first-round KO loss just two months ago
• Striking Dynamics: Santos's body work and pressure could replicate the success Amil had against Lee
• Grappling Edge: Santos attempts more takedowns (3.8 vs 1.44 per fight) and has shown better defensive wrestling
• Defensive Concerns: Lee's 50% strike defense was exploited by Amil's combination striking - a vulnerability Santos can target
• Recovery Timeline: Lee is returning just two months after being knocked out, raising serious questions about his durability

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds increased the model's score by 3.0, reflecting Santos's status as the betting favorite
• Recent Win Percentage increased the score by 3.0, highlighting Santos's momentum with two straight UFC wins
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight increased the score by 3.0, showing Santos's wrestling threat (4.18 attempts per fight)
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential decreased the score by 2.0, suggesting Lee may have more power in his strikes
• Reach decreased the score by 2.0, acknowledging Lee's 6-inch reach advantage
• Striking Defense Percentage increased the score by 2.0, indicating Santos's superior defensive skills

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record predicting Santos, correctly picking his win over Johnny Munoz but missing on his upset victory over John Castaneda. For Lee, the model has been perfect, correctly predicting both his win over Blake Bilder and his loss to Hyder Amil.

Lee's recent KO loss to Amil confirms the model's ability to identify his vulnerabilities, while Santos's upset win over Castaneda shows he can sometimes exceed expectations.

Conclusion

Santos's pressure fighting style, body work, and wrestling threat make him a nightmare matchup for Lee, who's coming off a brutal KO loss just two months ago. Lee's defensive vulnerabilities against aggressive strikers were exposed by Amil, and Santos has the tools to exploit these same weaknesses. With Santos's momentum and Lee's quick turnaround after being knocked out, WolfTicketsAI confidently picks Daniel Santos to secure the victory.