Analysis: Sumudaerji vs Mitch Raposo

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Sumudaerji to Win

Score: 19
Odds:
Sumudaerji: -220
Mitch Raposo: +168

Sumudaerji's Breakdown

Sumudaerji enters this bout on a concerning three-fight skid, most recently dropping a unanimous decision to Charles Johnson. Despite these losses, his striking remains dangerous, particularly his left straight from the southpaw stance which has been his money punch throughout his career.

Against Matt Schnell, Sumudaerji showcased his devastating striking power, repeatedly rocking Schnell with his left hand and nearly finishing him multiple times. He displayed advanced striking IQ by trapping Schnell's hands and landing elbows over the top. However, that fight revealed a critical weakness when Schnell secured a comeback triangle choke after being badly hurt.

His fight with Tim Elliott followed a similar pattern - early striking success followed by submission troubles. Elliott persistently pursued takedowns until securing one, then finished Sumudaerji with an arm-triangle choke. This pattern continued against Charles Johnson, where Sumudaerji's improved grappling showed promise but wasn't enough to secure the win.

What makes Sumudaerji dangerous is his 8-inch reach advantage and significant striking impact differential (+15.4). He uses his length effectively with a snapping jab and inside low kicks, creating openings for his power left hand. His tempo shifts - retreating lazily then exploding forward - have caught multiple opponents off guard.

Mitch Raposo's Breakdown

Raposo comes into this fight with just one UFC appearance, a split decision loss to Andre Lima at UFC 302. Despite the loss, Raposo showed clean boxing fundamentals and wrestling skills that make him a well-rounded fighter. His primary weapon is an overhand right, which he sometimes relies on too heavily.

Against Lima, Raposo struggled with an opponent who could effectively counter his striking-heavy approach. His tendency to overextend with power shots led to moments of vulnerability that Lima exploited. Raposo's wrestling background gives him options, as shown by his one takedown landed in his UFC debut, but he didn't fully utilize this skill set against Lima.

Raposo's stats reveal concerning deficiencies in striking output, with a -24 significant striking output differential in his lone UFC appearance. His 64-inch reach will put him at a severe disadvantage against the much longer Sumudaerji, forcing him to close distance against a dangerous counter striker.

Training with Tyson Chartier's New England Cartel and at Xtreme Couture suggests Raposo is working to round out his skill set, but his limited UFC experience makes him something of an unknown quantity at this level.

Analysis and Key Points

• Reach disparity is massive - Sumudaerji's 72-inch reach gives him an 8-inch advantage over Raposo's 64 inches, allowing him to land from safety
• Striking differential tells the story - Sumudaerji's +15.4 significant striking impact differential contrasts sharply with Raposo's -19.0
• Grappling could be Raposo's path - Sumudaerji has lost his last three fights, all featuring submission or grappling troubles
• Experience edge to Sumudaerji - With 7 UFC fights compared to Raposo's single appearance, Sumudaerji has faced much higher-level competition
• Warning: Limited sample size - Raposo has only one UFC fight, making predictions less certain

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Sumudaerji is driven by several key factors:

• Odds increased the prediction score by 11.0, reflecting the betting market's strong lean toward Sumudaerji
• Significant striking impact differential boosted the score by 6.0, highlighting Sumudaerji's +15.4 versus Raposo's -19.0
• Recent significant striking impact differential added 3.0 to the score, showing Sumudaerji's continued striking effectiveness
• Reach contributed 3.0 to the prediction, with Sumudaerji's 8-inch advantage likely to be a major factor
• TrueSkill and striking impact differential each added 1.0, reflecting Sumudaerji's higher skill rating and overall striking effectiveness

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a mixed record predicting Sumudaerji's fights. The model correctly predicted Charles Johnson to defeat Sumudaerji in their recent bout, but incorrectly picked Sumudaerji to win against both Tim Elliott and Matt Schnell. These misses suggest the model may overvalue Sumudaerji's striking prowess while underestimating his vulnerability to submissions.

For Raposo, this is the first time WolfTicketsAI is predicting one of his fights, adding uncertainty to the projection.

Conclusion

Despite Sumudaerji's three-fight losing streak, his significant advantages in reach, striking impact, and experience make him the clear favorite against UFC newcomer Raposo. While Raposo's wrestling could potentially exploit Sumudaerji's submission defense issues, he'll first need to navigate a dangerous striking range against a fighter who excels at distance management. The betting odds and statistical advantages strongly favor Sumudaerji, and WolfTicketsAI confidently predicts him to snap his losing streak with a win over Raposo.