Analysis: Nikita Krylov vs Dominick Reyes

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Nikita Krylov to Win

Score: 7
Odds:
Nikita Krylov: -188
Dominick Reyes: +146

Nikita Krylov's Breakdown

Krylov brings a dangerous mix of aggressive striking and opportunistic submissions to this light heavyweight clash. His recent performances show a fighter who's hitting his stride, with three wins in his last four outings. Against Ryan Spann last March, Krylov displayed his submission savvy by capitalizing on a scramble to lock in a triangle choke when Spann rushed in carelessly. This ability to find submissions from seemingly disadvantageous positions makes him a threat in any phase of the fight.

His striking has evolved from wild exchanges to more calculated aggression. Against Volkan Oezdemir, Krylov started hot with furious combinations but showed a tendency to slow down as the fight progressed. He still managed to secure a unanimous decision through volume and pressure. When facing Alexander Gustafsson, Krylov wasted no time exploiting his opponent's diminished speed, finishing him with the first punches he threw.

Krylov's grappling remains his ace. His 1.44 submissions per fight is an elite stat, and he's attempted 6.01 takedowns per fight, showing his willingness to mix striking with wrestling. His 88% takedown defense also makes him difficult to control on the ground, as Paul Craig discovered despite eventually catching Krylov in a triangle after Krylov dominated most of their ground exchanges.

Dominick Reyes's Breakdown

Reyes enters this fight looking to build on his recent return to form. After nearly defeating Jon Jones in a controversial title fight decision, Reyes suffered three consecutive knockout losses that severely damaged his stock. However, he's rebounded with back-to-back KO wins over Dustin Jacoby and Anthony Smith.

Reyes's bread-and-butter is his southpaw counter left hand. Against Jacoby, he showcased this perfectly, stepping back and to his left to create an angle before landing the fight-ending counter as Jacoby squared his stance during a combination. This technique has been the foundation of Reyes's success throughout his career.

The concern with Reyes is his durability. After those three straight knockout losses, questions remain about his chin. Against Ryan Spann, Reyes was knocked out by what was essentially a jab, showing alarming vulnerability. His tendency to lunge face-first into punches is a dangerous habit that Krylov could exploit with his opportunistic striking.

Reyes's stats show his power (0.94 knockdowns per fight) and striking accuracy (54.4% significant striking accuracy), but his 0.31 takedowns per fight reveal his preference to keep fights standing where his counter striking is most effective.

Analysis and Key Points

• Krylov's pace vs Reyes's counter striking: Krylov typically starts fast and aggressive, which could play into Reyes's counter-striking game if he's not careful.

• Recent momentum: Krylov has won 3 of his last 4, while Reyes has won his last 2 after a brutal 4-fight losing streak.

• Submission threat: Krylov's 1.44 submissions per fight presents a serious threat to Reyes, who primarily wants to keep the fight standing.

• Durability concerns: Reyes has been knocked out in 3 of his 4 losses, raising questions about his chin after absorbing significant damage against Jones, Blachowicz, and Prochazka.

• Takedown differential: Krylov attempts 6.01 takedowns per fight compared to Reyes's 1.09, suggesting Krylov will likely look to mix in wrestling to neutralize Reyes's counter striking.

Understanding the Prediction

Several key factors drive WolfTicketsAI's confidence in Krylov:

• Odds increased the model's score by 6.0, reflecting the betting market's strong lean toward Krylov
• Recent takedowns attempted per fight boosted the score by 3.0, highlighting Krylov's wrestling advantage
• Recent win percentage added 2.0 to the score, with Krylov winning 3 of his last 4 while Reyes is just starting to rebuild
• Significant striking impact differential and TrueSkill each added 1.0, showing Krylov's overall effectiveness
• Striking defense percentage decreased the score by 2.0, indicating a potential vulnerability in Krylov's defense

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a strong track record with Krylov, correctly predicting his wins over Volkan Oezdemir and Alexander Gustafsson. The model did miss on his submission loss to Paul Craig, but that fight saw Krylov dominating until getting caught in a triangle choke after a tactical error.

For Reyes, the model has been less consistent. It correctly predicted his win over Anthony Smith but missed on his upset KO of Dustin Jacoby and incorrectly favored him against Ryan Spann.

Conclusion

Krylov's blend of aggressive striking, wrestling, and submission threats gives him multiple paths to victory against Reyes. While Reyes possesses dangerous counter striking, his questionable durability and Krylov's ability to mix in takedowns make this a challenging matchup for him. Expect Krylov to pressure early, mix in takedowns when Reyes looks to counter, and either find a submission or wear Reyes down for a decision win. WolfTicketsAI's confidence score of 7 reflects a strong likelihood of Krylov getting his hand raised.