Analysis: King Green vs Mauricio Ruffy

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Mauricio Ruffy to Win

Score: 11
Odds:
King Green: +350
Mauricio Ruffy: -520

King Green's Breakdown

King Green enters this lightweight matchup as a UFC veteran with a wealth of experience, sporting a 32-16-1 record. Recently, Green has struggled with consistency, winning just 2 of his last 5 fights. In his most recent bout against Paddy Pimblett, Green's striking-focused approach proved ineffective when Pimblett kept him at distance with low kicks, eventually catching him with a guillotine choke that transitioned to a triangle.

Green's primary weapons come from his boxing-centric offense, particularly his stepping left hand and jab combinations. Against Jim Miller, Green effectively controlled distance with his jab, preventing Miller from establishing his rhythm. However, he's shown vulnerability against opponents who can maintain range—as exposed by Jalin Turner, who brilliantly countered Green's defensive slips with a double jab setup and timed right straight that led to a devastating KO.

Green's defensive habits have become somewhat predictable. He relies heavily on shoulder rolls and slips, but these patterns can be exploited, as Turner demonstrated by setting traps with his double jab. When opponents force Green to cover distance, his entries become telegraphed, creating openings for counters and submissions.

Mauricio Ruffy's Breakdown

Despite having just two UFC appearances, Mauricio Ruffy has made a significant impact with a perfect 11-1 professional record. Ruffy's explosive striking was on full display in his knockout victory over Jamie Mullarkey, where he showcased his exceptional speed and power.

Ruffy brings an impressive athleticism and unpredictability to his fights. His most recent performance against James Llontop demonstrated his ability to maintain distance and outmaneuver opponents through superior footwork. What sets Ruffy apart is his dynamic striking coupled with strategic grappling awareness—he's shown particular skill in using the scissor sweep to gain dominant positions.

The statistics tell a clear story: Ruffy averages 1.52 knockdowns per fight compared to Green's 0.26, highlighting his significant power advantage. His defensive skills are equally impressive, maintaining a 100% takedown defense ratio against opponents' attempts. Ruffy fights at a strategic pace, landing 4.67 significant strikes per minute with 60% accuracy, all while absorbing minimal damage.

Analysis and Key Points

• Reach advantage: Ruffy's 75" reach versus Green's 71" will allow him to operate at his preferred distance, similar to how Pimblett and Turner neutralized Green's boxing.

• Green's defensive patterns have become increasingly predictable—his tendency to slip punches in consistent ways creates opportunities for fighters who can set traps, as Turner demonstrated effectively.

• Striking power disparity: Ruffy's 1.52 knockdowns per fight dwarfs Green's 0.26, suggesting Ruffy possesses the power advantage when exchanges occur.

• Green's recent chin concerns: Green was knocked out by Jalin Turner in December 2023, and opponents have increasingly found success targeting him during his defensive slips.

• Tactical similarities: Ruffy may employ a similar strategy to Turner's, using feints and double attacks to draw out Green's defensive reactions before capitalizing with power shots.

• Green's recent performance decline: Having lost 2 of his last 3 fights, including a devastating KO loss to Turner and submission loss to Pimblett, Green appears to be trending downward at this stage of his career.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Ruffy comes from several key statistical factors:

• Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the prediction score by 9.0 points, reflecting Ruffy's power advantage and Green's vulnerability
• Striking Impact Differential added another 2.0 points, further emphasizing the striking disparity
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential contributed 1.0 point, showing Ruffy's recent effectiveness
• Recent Takedowns Attempted added 1.0 point, suggesting Ruffy's takedown threat adds another dimension
• Striking Defense Percentage and Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage each added 1.0 point, reflecting Ruffy's superior defensive skills

Interestingly, Odds decreased the prediction score by 18.0, suggesting the model sees value in Green beyond the betting market's assessment. Recent Win Percentage decreased the score by 2.0, likely accounting for Green's greater UFC experience despite recent struggles.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI's track record with these fighters presents an interesting dynamic. For King Green, the model has predicted 8 of his fights with mixed results—correctly picking his wins against Jim Miller and Tony Ferguson, but incorrectly favoring him in losses against Paddy Pimblett, Drew Dober, and Nasrat Haqparast.

The model has also missed on Green's upset victories, incorrectly predicting Grant Dawson would defeat him (Green won by KO) and that Nasrat Haqparast would beat him (Green won by decision).

For Mauricio Ruffy, WolfTicketsAI has only predicted one previous fight—correctly calling his victory over James Llontop with a high confidence score of 0.83.

This mixed record suggests some caution with the prediction, particularly given Green's propensity for occasionally defying the odds, as he did against Grant Dawson.

Conclusion

While King Green brings substantially more UFC experience to this matchup, Mauricio Ruffy's superior striking metrics, defensive skills, and physical advantages give him clear pathways to victory. Green's increasingly predictable defensive patterns and recent vulnerability to fighters who can maintain distance make this a particularly challenging stylistic matchup for him. WolfTicketsAI's prediction of Ruffy takes into account both fighters' recent performances and key statistical advantages, making him the justified favorite to extend his impressive UFC run.