Analysis: Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Rafael Fiziev to Win

Score: 1
Odds:
Justin Gaethje: +126
Rafael Fiziev: -162

Justin Gaethje's Breakdown

Gaethje enters this matchup with significant momentum shifts in his recent career. After securing a majority decision over Fiziev in their first meeting (March 2023), Gaethje went on to claim a spectacular KO victory against Dustin Poirier, landing a perfectly timed head kick that capitalized on Poirier's parrying motion. However, his most recent outing ended in a brutal knockout loss to Max Holloway in April 2024.

What makes Gaethje dangerous is his evolution from wild brawler to calculated technician. Against Fiziev in their first fight, Gaethje neutralized Fiziev's primary weapon—the switch kick—by stepping in with left hooks and pivoting offline. He effectively parried Fiziev's kicks across his body and incorporated level changes into uppercuts. This technical approach is a far cry from the reckless fighter who lost to Eddie Alvarez and Dustin Poirier early in his UFC career.

Gaethje's defensive improvements have been remarkable. His hand-fighting technique to neutralize jabs (demonstrated against Poirier) and his switch to outside low kicks (instead of inside kicks that left him vulnerable) showcase a fighter who learns from his mistakes. However, his tendency to bend at the waist rather than the knees when evading punches remains a technical flaw that makes him susceptible to uppercuts.

Rafael Fiziev's Breakdown

Fiziev comes into this rematch seeking redemption after their closely contested first bout. His dynamic striking style, rooted in elite Muay Thai, makes him one of the division's most technical strikers. His devastating switch kicks from orthodox stance allow him to cover unusual ground while delivering powerful body and head strikes.

In their first meeting, Fiziev actually landed 52 of 61 body strikes, showcasing his accuracy and commitment to body work. However, Gaethje's specific counters to Fiziev's techniques disrupted his rhythm and forced him to be more hesitant with his primary weapons.

Since that fight, Fiziev suffered a setback against Mateusz Gamrot when he sustained a knee injury that resulted in a TKO loss. This adds questions about his durability and whether he can maintain the movement-heavy style that defines his approach.

Fiziev's defensive wrestling (90% takedown defense) typically allows him to keep fights standing where his striking prowess can flourish. His clinch striking capabilities, particularly his ability to deliver damaging elbows on clinch breaks, make him especially dangerous in close-quarters fighting.

Previous Fight Breakdown

Their March 2023 bout was a tactical striking battle that showcased both fighters' technical evolution. Gaethje employed specific counters designed to neutralize Fiziev's dangerous left body and head kicks. When Fiziev attempted his switch kicks, Gaethje would step in with a left hook and pivot off-line, pulling his head away from follow-up strikes.

Fiziev found success targeting Gaethje's body, but struggled with Gaethje's specific counters to his best techniques. The fight was razor-close, with Gaethje ultimately securing a majority decision in a contest many observers felt could have gone either way.

What separated them was Gaethje's ability to neutralize Fiziev's primary weapons. While Fiziev still landed effectively to the body, Gaethje's specific counters to the kick entries made Fiziev look less fluid and effective than in previous performances.

Analysis and Key Points

• Gaethje's tactical evolution has transformed him from a reckless brawler to a calculated striker who can implement specific game plans against elite strikers. His ability to neutralize Fiziev's kicks in their first bout proved decisive.

• Fiziev's body work was effective in their first match, landing an impressive 52 of 61 attempts. Increasing this output could be key to victory in the rematch.

• Recent injuries for both fighters create uncertainty. Gaethje is coming off a KO loss to Holloway, while Fiziev is returning from a knee injury against Gamrot.

• Stance flexibility will be crucial. Gaethje showed improved footwork in pivoting away from Fiziev's attacks, while Fiziev's ability to switch stances creates unpredictable angles.

• Defensive tendencies remain exploitable for both men. Gaethje still bends at the waist rather than the knees when evading punches, while Fiziev's leaning back to avoid head kicks opens him to body attacks.

Understanding the Prediction

The model's confidence in Fiziev comes from several key factors:

• Recent Win Percentage increased the prediction score by 2.0, reflecting Fiziev's strong overall UFC record (despite his recent setback against Gamrot)

• Significant Striking Impact Differential increased the score by 1.0, showing Fiziev's ability to land more damaging strikes than he absorbs

• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential also increased the score by 1.0, indicating Fiziev's recent striking effectiveness

• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight increased the score by 1.0, suggesting Fiziev might mix in wrestling to disrupt Gaethje's striking

• Striking Defense Percentage and Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage each increased the score by 1.0, highlighting Fiziev's defensive skills

• Odds decreased the prediction score by 4.0, showing the betting market actually favors Gaethje more than the model does

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has struggled to accurately predict both fighters' outcomes. For Gaethje, the model has been wrong in three consecutive predictions, including their first matchup where it incorrectly favored Fiziev. The model also incorrectly picked against Gaethje in his fight with Dustin Poirier, which Gaethje won via KO.

For Fiziev, the model has been wrong in two of his last three fights, correctly predicting only his win over Rafael Dos Anjos. Notably, it incorrectly favored Fiziev in their first encounter, which Gaethje won by majority decision.

This inconsistent prediction history adds uncertainty to the current forecast, suggesting this matchup may be more competitive than the model's confident score indicates.

Conclusion

Despite Gaethje winning their first encounter via majority decision, WolfTicketsAI sees Fiziev claiming victory in the rematch. The model values Fiziev's technical striking, defensive skills, and overall winning percentage above Gaethje's recent performances. Watch for Fiziev to attack Gaethje's body more aggressively while avoiding the specific counters that troubled him in their first matchup. If Fiziev can maintain his range and prevent Gaethje from neutralizing his kicks, he'll secure a hard-fought victory in this lightweight clash.