Analysis: Zachary Reese vs Sedriques Dumas

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Zachary Reese to Win

Score: 21
Odds:
Zachary Reese: -295
Sedriques Dumas: +220

Zachary Reese's Breakdown

Zachary Reese has built a reputation as an aggressive middleweight who mixes power strikes with solid takedowns. He’s 8–1 overall, with two recent UFC wins in a row. Yet it’s worth noting he was stopped by Cody Brundage (TKO) in late 2023, a sign that heavy hitters can threaten him. Reese uses body kicks to soften opponents, and he’s shown good clinch work by punishing foes with knees and elbows when he traps them against the fence. Against Julian Marquez last year, he added more wrestling to his toolbox, taking Marquez down multiple times before finishing the job with strikes. His biggest strength is the nonstop pressure. Opponents often end up shelling up under his output and grappling attacks.

Sedriques Dumas's Breakdown

Sedriques Dumas, the more conservative fighter, often stays calm and picks his shots. He’s 10–2, with a measured style that emphasizes defending early attacks, working from the clinch, then setting up strikes on the break. He’s been quite accurate in his recent wins—particularly against Denis Tiuliulin, where he kept the fight at his pace and frustrated Tiuliulin with body and leg kicks. Dumas is no knockout artist, but he grinds opponents down by controlling the center or tying them up against the cage. However, he was knocked out by Nursulton Ruziboev in early 2024 and has occasionally tired late if forced to scramble. Still, he’s won three of his last four.

Analysis and Key Points

• Zachary’s Pressure: Reese pushes forward, mixing body kicks, overhands, and takedowns to smother opponents.
• Sedriques’s Defense: Dumas stands back, defends at a decent rate, then counters when opponents overextend.
• Grappling Edge: Reese might have an advantage on the mat, especially after forcing clinches.
• Potential Risk: Reese’s TKO loss to Brundage reveals vulnerability against strong punchers. Dumas’s measured power could expose that if Reese rushes in.

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTicketsAI leans heavily toward Reese based on the following factors from the data:

• Odds (+17): Bookmakers favor Reese at -295, which boosted the model’s confidence.
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential (+2): Reese has delivered solid power lately, hurting foes with body and head shots.
• Recent Win Percentage (+2): He’s been winning consistently since his lone TKO loss.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential & Striking Defense Percentage (+1 each): Reese shows a higher net impact when trading and can slip danger more effectively.

These stats tilt the model in Reese’s favor.

Past Model Performance

• WolfTicketsAI was incorrect when it picked Julian Marquez over Reese in 2024. It underestimated Reese’s power and pace.
• Conversely, the model has been perfect (4–0) in predicting Dumas’s last four fights, choosing him correctly each time. This success adds intrigue: the system now picks against him despite that perfect record.

Conclusion

Reese’s relentless offense and damaging body work likely wear Dumas down in a high-paced fight. Dumas’s cautious style may keep him safe early, but the model predicts Reese will run away with it as rounds progress. Despite the model’s past success picking Dumas, it points to Reese’s power, takedowns, and momentum as key advantages heading into this middleweight clash.