Analysis: Tagir Ulanbekov vs Clayton Carpenter

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Tagir Ulanbekov to Win

Score: 22
Odds:
Tagir Ulanbekov: -340
Clayton Carpenter: +250

Tagir Ulanbekov's Breakdown

Tagir has a 15–2 record and comes off two straight submission wins. His grappling stands out, with a habit of chaining takedowns and applying suffocating pressure from top control. The submission game has led to several quick finishes, including a rear-naked choke win over Cody Durden. His only recent stumble was a decision loss to Tim Elliott, where he struggled with Elliott’s awkward style and couldn’t impose the same control. Even then, the aggression on the ground was there, just not enough to sway the judges.

He attempts almost eight takedowns per fight and has solid accuracy, which pairs well with constant chain wrestling. The clinch along the fence is where he sets up most of his work, driving forward to catch body locks or single-legs. His striking mainly serves as a way to close distance, but the output is climbing, as seen in the Bruno Silva fight. Recent data suggests Tagir’s consistent pace on the ground and improved setups on the feet.

Clayton Carpenter's Breakdown

Clayton sits at 8–0, with two straight submissions in the UFC. He also leans on a strong wrestling foundation, moving swiftly between clinch work and top control. He’s shown the ability to reverse a takedown to his advantage, as happened with Juancamilo Ronderos, where he quickly took the back and locked in a rear-naked choke. Against Lucas Rocha, Carpenter’s clinch control and flurries of strikes led him to another submission from a dominant position.

Carpenter’s biggest edge is his timing when switching from striking to grappling. His jab creates openings, and he’ll waste no time shooting a double-leg or looking for a body lock if his opponent overcommits to strikes. There’s limited cage time on record, though, so it remains to be seen how well he handles a smothering opponent with proven grappling depth.

Analysis and Key Points

• Tagir’s Relentless Takedowns: He’s comfortable shooting multiple times per round, wearing down opponents until they can’t defend.
• Carpenter’s Scrambles: He’s shown a knack for turning an opponent’s takedown into his own top position.
• Reach Advantage: Tagir brings a 70" reach vs Carpenter’s 66". Tagir can jab first or intercept Carpenter’s attempts to close the distance.
• Recent Form: Tagir’s only loss in his last five was a decision against Tim Elliott. Carpenter is undefeated but has far fewer UFC contests.

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTicketsAI sees several factors pushing the call toward Tagir:

• Odds (+18): The betting line strongly favors Tagir at -340.
• Recent Win Percentage (+3): Tagir’s recent 4–1 UFC run boosts confidence.
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight (+3): Tagir’s willingness to shoot relentlessly weighs heavily in the model.
• TrueSkill (+1): A measure of overall skill level that leans Tagir’s way.
• Striking Impact Differential (+1): Tagir’s ability to land heavier strikes than he absorbs edges the model upward.
• Significant Striking Output Differential (+1): Tagir’s higher rate of successful significant shots.
• Reach (+1): Tagir’s four-inch edge factors in.
• Striking Defense Percentage (+1): Tagir defends a decent share of incoming shots, adding a final boost.

Past Model Performance

• Tagir Ulanbekov
• Predicted to beat Cody Durden (correct, finished by submission).
• Predicted to beat Nate Maness (correct, finished by submission).

• Predicted to beat Tim Elliott (incorrect, lost a decision).
  The model is 2–1 with Tagir, which is solid but not flawless.

• Clayton Carpenter

• No past predictions in the system, so there’s uncertainty about how well WolfTicketsAI reads him. This could be risky for bettors.

Conclusion

Both favor wrestling-heavy styles, but Tagir’s deep experience and proven submission skills under UFC lights carry weight. Carpenter is a real threat on the mat with a perfect record, yet hasn’t faced anyone as controlling as Tagir. Expect an early grappling exchange, with Tagir pressing for top position. WolfTicketsAI sides with Tagir’s proven track record in these scrambles and sees him imposing his takedown game en route to another submission victory.