Analysis: Ricky Turcios vs Benardo Sopaj

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Ricky Turcios to Win

Score: 9
Odds:
Ricky Turcios: +260
Benardo Sopaj: -360

Ricky Turcios's Breakdown

Turcios steps in with a 2-2 UFC record, mixing busy striking with a scramble-heavy ground game. Past wins came through relentless activity, as seen in his fight against Kevin Natividad, where he used spinning wheel kicks, aggressive hammer fists from bottom, and slick scrambles to pull off a split decision.
He tends to absorb damage in pursuit of opportunities. His recent loss to Raul Rosas Jr. showed how he can be vulnerable to submissions if he overextends in scrambles. Earlier, he dropped a decision to Aiemann Zahabi by throwing plenty of strikes yet landing too few.
He rarely slows his pace, which pressures opponents to keep up. The key for Turcios is staying controlled in transitions and protecting against counters, especially on the ground.

Benardo Sopaj's Breakdown

Sopaj’s lone UFC fight ended in a KO/TKO loss to Vinicius Oliveira after a promising start. He back-took Oliveira but slipped off, got stuck underneath, and was stopped by a flying knee. That recent KO/TKO loss signals a risk that he may not handle a high pace or precision striking as well as expected.
His grappling is solid, with frequent takedowns and strong top pressure. But over-aggressiveness can lead to positional slips. Opponents who keep him on the feet and time his entries have succeeded. Sopaj’s record outside the UFC is respectable, but only having one UFC bout means there is limited data to draw on, making the prediction less certain.

Analysis and Key Points

• Turcios’s Pressure: Swarms with big volume, especially with unorthodox kicks and busy punching.
• Sopaj’s Grappling: Takes backs and hunts submissions, but can get reversed when he rushes positions.
• Recent KO/TKO Loss: Sopaj’s knockout defeat could mean vulnerability if Turcios overwhelms him.
• Limited UFC Fights for Sopaj: Only one UFC outing means less data and a less predictable performance.
• Turcios’s Scramble Game: Can stifle grapplers who get too excited about chasing positions.

Understanding the Prediction

Several stats pushed the model to favor Turcios despite his underdog odds (odds decreased the score by 10.0):

• Significant Striking Impact Differential (+9.0): Turcios carries a better ratio of damaging strikes landed vs. absorbed.
• Striking Impact Differential (+5.0): Indicates Turcios’s overall shots tend to do more harm than what he takes.
• Recent Significant Striking Output Differential (+3.0): Shows Turcios’s volume has improved lately despite mixed results.
• Recent Win Percentage (+2.0): Turcios’s 1-2 in his last three UFC bouts (33%) still outweighs Sopaj’s 0-1 (0%).
• TrueSkill (+1.0): Slight edge in skill rating.
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential (+1.0): Turcios’s quality of strikes remains a factor.
• Recent Striking Impact Differential (+1.0): Suggests Turcios still does more damage than he absorbs.
• Significant Striking Output Differential (+1.0): Turcios fires more significant strikes than he receives.
• Reach (+1.0): Turcios has a 71-inch reach vs. Sopaj’s 66, giving him an outside striking edge.
• Recent Average Striking Output Differential (+1.0): Reflects Turcios’s high-output style.
• Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage (+1.0): Slight edge in defending serious strikes.

Past Model Performance

• Turcios: WolfTicketsAI was correct once (picking against him vs. Rosas Jr.) but missed twice (picked him over Zahabi when he lost, and picked Natividad vs. Turcios when Turcios won).
• Sopaj: No prior predictions on record. That lack of data for Sopaj lowers confidence in this pick from a betting standpoint.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI sees Turcios’s pace and style wearing Sopaj down. Sopaj’s recent KO/TKO loss and his limited UFC sample create uncertainty in how well he can manage a fighter who scrambles and strikes as aggressively as Turcios. The underdog odds on Turcios are notable, but the model still leans his way. A safe approach might be caution if betting, though the pick here is Turcios by keeping distance, preventing Sopaj’s top control, and piling up damage with strikes.