Analysis: Kevin Holland vs Reinier de Ridder

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Reinier de Ridder to Win

Score: 3
Odds:
Kevin Holland: -120
Reinier de Ridder: -106

Kevin Holland's Breakdown

Kevin Holland is moving back to middleweight after a string of welterweight fights. That switch can bring more power but may also slow him against a strong grappler. Holland’s last five outings show a 2–3 stretch, meaning a 60% loss rate in that span. One of those losses was a recent KO/TKO defeat to Roman Dolidze, which is a red flag when facing someone with finishing ability. Holland still holds big advantages in reach (81") and striking pace, plus a knack for sharp counters and opportunistic submissions. He’s shown improved defense in the clinch but still gets taken down more than he should. Against a relentless takedown artist, the question is whether he can stay standing long enough to land big shots.

Reinier de Ridder's Breakdown

Reinier de Ridder is a decorated grappler who likes to mix judo throws with persistent takedowns. He averages over six takedowns per fight, a staggering number for a middleweight, and defends takedowns at a perfect rate so far. He uses arm triangles and rear-naked chokes to finish fights, as shown in his debut against Gerald Meerschaert. De Ridder's pure striking might not match Holland’s volume, but once he’s inside or clinching, his transitions often end in dominant ground control. With 18 wins in 20 fights, he keeps a constant threat of submission attempts that forces opponents to fight off their heels.

Analysis and Key Points

• Kevin’s Downward Trend: Three losses in his last five show inconsistent form.
• Recent KO Loss: Holland was stopped by strikes last time out, always a concern when facing another finisher.
• Weight Class Change: Returning to middleweight might help his power but puts him against bigger grapplers like de Ridder.
• De Ridder’s Takedown Barrage: Over six takedowns per fight is a punishing stat.
• Ground Threat: De Ridder typically smothers opponents, then catches them in chokes. Holland’s submission escapes must hold up.

Understanding the Prediction

Below are the notable SHAP feature impacts for the model’s score:

• Odds (+5.0): The near-even lines still shifted the model in favor of de Ridder, likely because Kevin’s recent form is shaky.
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight (-4.0): Kevin’s slight dip in successful takedown attempts lowered his rating against a grappler.
• Recent Win Percentage (-3.0): Holland’s 2–3 run hurt his predicted outcome.
• TrueSkill (-2.0): De Ridder’s success outside the UFC is still recognized, while Holland’s rating dipped from inconsistent results.
• Reach (+1.0): Holland’s 81" reach remains an edge.
• Significant Striking/Striking Output Differentials (+1.0 each): Holland’s higher strike pace and accuracy are positives but overshadowed by other factors.
• Recent Significant Striking Defense Percentage (-1.0): Being hit more lately lowered Holland’s odds.

Past Model Performance

Kevin Holland
- Mixed track record with WolfTicketsAI. The model was incorrect picking him vs Roman Dolidze (lost by KO/TKO) and Jack Della Maddalena (lost by decision). It was correct vs Michal Oleksiejczuk and Santiago Ponzinibbio. There have been a few surprises with Holland, so the model’s confidence for him can be fragile.

Reinier de Ridder
- No previous WolfTicketsAI predictions for de Ridder. This creates uncertainty because the model hasn’t tested its forecast on him yet.

Conclusion

Reinier de Ridder is favored for his relentless takedowns, perfect takedown defense, and proven finishing skill on the mat. Kevin Holland’s long reach and striking activity can cause trouble if de Ridder fails to get him down, but recent knockouts and a welter-to-middleweight return leave questions about Holland’s durability. The model leans toward de Ridder’s grappling edge, with the biggest red flags for Holland being his shaky form and a KO/TKO loss in his latest fight.