Analysis: Jailton Almeida vs Serghei Spivac

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jailton Almeida to Win

Score: 23
Odds:
Jailton Almeida: -400
Serghei Spivac: 300

Jailton Almeida's Breakdown

Almeida is a fierce grappler who keeps opponents on the mat with relentless takedowns. Recent fights show a solid finishing rate, especially by submission. He merges wrestling techniques with BJJ control, making it hard for opponents to stand back up. Almeida has won four of his last five UFC bouts, though he recently lost by T/KO to Curtis Blaydes. That KO loss is worth noting because fighters who get stopped like that can be vulnerable if forced into extended striking exchanges.

In his past matchups, Almeida efficiently mixed chain-wrestling with ground control. He thrives at heavyweight despite once competing at light heavyweight. He rarely lets opponents off the hook if he gets top position. Striking is serviceable but more of a tool to set up takedowns. His reach (79") is an advantage when closing distance on slower heavyweights.

Serghei Spivac's Breakdown

Spivac shows a blend of striking and wrestling. He likes to drive opponents to the fence, set up trips, and work submissions. He often ties up arms or threatens from top control. His recent fights have been productive: four wins in his last five. He did lose by T/KO to Ciryl Gane not long ago, indicating that strong strikers who keep the fight upright can pose problems. Still, Spivac bounces back with well-timed takedowns, ground-and-pound, and a knack for finishing submissions, as seen against Marcin Tybura and Derrick Lewis.

He stands at a reach disadvantage (78") and sometimes eats extra shots trying to close distance. He does, however, maintain a decent clip of takedowns attempted and landed. Spivac’s all-around tools let him adapt, whether in the clinch or chasing a choke.

Analysis and Key Points

• Almeida's Takedown Pace: He averages over six takedowns per fight, wearing opponents down and hunting submissions.
• Spivac’s Own Grappling: He also relies on takedowns, setting up submissions like armbar or triangle variations.
• Recent Knockout Losses: Both have suffered T/KOs in the last few fights, so striking exchanges carry risk for each man.
• Positioning on the Ground: Top control and transitions heavily favor Almeida, though Spivac’s ground game might offer scrambles.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds (+20.0): The -400 line on Almeida boosted the model score the most.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential (+3.0): Almeida’s higher impact differential shows he lands damaging shots while avoiding big counters.
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight (+3.0): Almeida constantly attempts takedowns, which drives his grappling advantage.
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential (+2.0) & Recent Win Percentage (+2.0): Almeida’s success in recent outings boosts his profile.
• TrueSkill (-1.0): Spivac’s rating slightly narrowed the margin, but not enough to swing the overall pick.
• Striking Impact Differential (+1.0) & Reach (+1.0): Almeida’s numbers here raised confidence in his grappling setups from distance.
• Striking Defense Percentage (-1.0): A mild knock on Almeida for occasionally getting hit, but the rest of his stats still gave him a strong edge.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has a strong track record with both fighters: - Correctly called Almeida wins over Romanov, Lewis, Rozenstruik, and others.
- Correctly called Spivac wins over Tybura, Lewis, Sakai, and Hardy.
Since the model has been on the mark for both men, this reduces uncertainty. The model’s prior success on them lowers the risk of a bad bet here.

Conclusion

Almeida is the pick due to his non-stop takedown pressure, proven finishing ability, and better recent stats in striking impact. Spivac is no pushover in the grappling exchanges but likely struggles to stay upright. Expect early scrambles, with Almeida’s suffocating top game eventually earning him another heavyweight victory.