Analysis: Grant Dawson vs Diego Ferreira

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Grant Dawson to Win

Score: 14
Odds:
Grant Dawson: -310
Diego Ferreira: 230

Grant Dawson's Breakdown

Grant Dawson is a wrestling-heavy force with a knack for constant takedowns. He is coming off a TKO loss to King Green in late 2023, but overall he has won four of his last five UFC bouts. His style leans on forward pressure, chain-wrestling, and slick back takes. Look for him to drag this fight to the mat whenever possible. He sets up his takedowns using a few probing jabs, then quickly drops for singles or doubles. Once on top, he hunts submissions or lands steady ground-and-pound. In his recent fights, he displayed better positional awareness, mixing in clinch control and heavy top pressure. However, he has been caught rushing in (like the King Green KO), so distance management is a question mark. Still, the wrestling edge and a robust gas tank give him an advantage on paper.

Diego Ferreira's Breakdown

Diego Ferreira is a versatile threat with knockout power and sharp Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He holds a 19-5 record and enters on a two-fight win streak by TKO. Despite these recent finishes, he has lost three of his last five overall, suggesting some volatility. On the feet, he fires combinations with above-average volume, mixing in angles and leg kicks. He can overwhelm opponents who stand flat-footed, and he has a knack for catching them off guard with counterpunches. On the ground, he shows solid positional grappling and a submission-savvy style. Wrestling defense, though, can be spotty. If Ferreira is taken down early, he may struggle to control the bout’s direction. Yet if he can keep it upright, his punch output might test Dawson’s chin.

Analysis and Key Points

• Dawson’s Takedowns: Dawson’s relentless shots and top control often break opponents’ rhythm.
• Ferreira’s Recent KO Power: Back-to-back TKO wins show he can still crack, especially if he forces a striking battle.
• Dawson’s Past KO Loss: That late-2023 TKO is worth caution; if Ferreira lands flush, Dawson could be in trouble.
• Ferreira’s Up-and-Down Form: Three losses in his last five fights raise questions about consistency.
• Distance Battles: Ferreira’s crisp combinations versus Dawson’s level changes. Whoever sets the range likely wins.

Understanding the Prediction

The model’s confidence comes from several stats that favored Dawson:

• Odds (+14): Dawson’s strong betting line boosted his predicted score.
• Recent Win Percentage (+3): Four wins in his last five outings weigh in his favor.
• Recent Takedowns Attempted per Fight (+3): High takedown volume pushes the score upward for a wrestler like Dawson.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential (+1) and Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential (+1): Dawson’s ground-and-pound and improving stand-up contributed to a small bump.
• Reach (+1): Dawson’s 72" reach is shorter than Ferreira’s 74", but the model sees a slight net benefit for Dawson when factoring overall stats.
• Striking Defense Percentage (-2): The model slightly penalized Dawson for getting hit in open exchanges, reflecting that TKO loss.

Past Model Performance

• Grant Dawson: WolfTicketsAI has mostly predicted him correctly. The big miss was picking Dawson over King Green (where he was KO’d). Otherwise, the model has been accurate when siding with Dawson.
• Diego Ferreira: WolfTicketsAI incorrectly picked against him in his last two wins, underestimating his TKO finishes. That discrepancy increases the risk factor if you are betting purely off the model’s score.

Conclusion

Dawson’s wrestling volume and record of grinding out wins are driving the pick here. Ferreira’s recent knockouts and improvements on the feet make him dangerous, but his uneven run in the past five matchups signals less reliability. Expect Dawson to close distance, change levels, and hunt a controlling position early. If Ferreira can stuff takedowns and uncork flurries, he has a real chance for an upset. Still, WolfTicketsAI leans toward Dawson to pin Ferreira to the mat and lock in another strong performance.