Analysis: Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Ian Machado Garry

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Shavkat Rakhmonov to Win

Score: 20 Odds: Shavkat Rakhmonov: -390 Ian Machado Garry: 280

Shavkat Rakhmonov's Breakdown

Shavkat Rakhmonov is an undefeated rising star in the welterweight division. He has a versatile skill set, combining suffocating grappling with powerful striking. His last 5 fights have all been finishes, showcasing his ability to end fights decisively.

Against Stephen Thompson, Rakhmonov nullified the karate specialist's striking with relentless pressure, takedowns and top control. He trapped Thompson's arm to secure a kimura submission in round 2. This adaptability will be key against a varied striker like Garry.

Rakhmonov's grappling heavy approach was also on display vs Neil Magny, where he chain wrestled the lanky vet to the mat repeatedly. A tight guillotine forced the tap late in round 2. If he can drag Garry into his suffocating clinch and wrestling game, he has a clear path to victory.

While primarily a grappler, Rakhmonov's striking is potent, as seen in his spinning wheel kick KO of Carlston Harris. He pressures methodically, cuts off the cage with kicks, and has fight-ending power. Garry will need to stay mobile and at range to have success striking.

Ian Machado Garry's Breakdown

Ian Machado Garry is an unbeaten prospect quickly rising up the welterweight ranks. The technical striker has a karate base and utilizes laser-like straight punches, quick footwork and a stiff jab to maintain range.

Garry's recent bout with Geoff Neal tested his ability to manage a high-pressure, physical fight. He showed poise utilizing intercepting knees and clinch work to slow Neal's forward momentum. But Neal did find success walking Garry down and exploiting his upright stance at times. Rakhmonov will aim to replicate that pressure.

In his KO win over Daniel Rodriguez, Garry again demonstrated strong clinch fundamentals, reversing position against the fence. He has underrated grappling skills to go with his crisp striking repertoire. Those clinch tactics will be crucial to keep Rakhmonov from imposing his wrestling.

The biggest question mark is how Garry manages a grappling-centric attack. His takedown defense held up well vs Song Kenan, but he was stuck on bottom for stretches. He'll need to avoid similar positions against a top control savant like Rakhmonov.

Analysis and Key Points

• Styles Make Fights: This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. Garry has the technical kickboxing advantage at range with rapid straight punches and diverse kicks. Rakhmonov will look to pressure forward and drag Garry into clinch battles and wrestling exchanges. Whoever can impose their preferred fight tempo and range will have the edge.

• Clinch Tactics: The clinch could be a key battleground position. Garry has shown solid fundamentals with whizzers, inside control and reversals. But Rakhmonov's trips, body locks and control against the fence are on another level. If Rakhmonov can force extended clinch battles, his chances of landing takedowns increase dramatically.

• Submission Danger: Rakhmonov is an assassin on the mat, with nasty chokes and joint locks always in play. Garry has never really been tested by an elite submission artist. He'll need to stay calm if put in precarious positions and have his submission defense on point.

• Five Round Questions: Neither man has gone five rounds before, so their cardio is relatively unproven if this becomes a grueling 25 minute affair. Rakhmonov's wrestling-heavy style is more draining to maintain, but Garry's karate footwork and movement also saps energy reserves. Whoever has more left in the championship rounds will gain a distinct advantage.

Understanding the Prediction

Here are some key factors that likely influenced the model's strong lean towards Shavkat Rakhmonov:

• Submission Grappling: Rakhmonov averages 1.79 submissions per fight, an astonishingly high rate. His ability to dictate where the fight takes place with takedowns and rapidly advance to dominant positions make him a constant submission threat. By contrast, Garry's submission game is largely untested against UFC-caliber opposition.

• Recent Metrics: Rakhmonov's recent performances have been utterly dominant. He's landing a whopping 5.20 takedowns attempted per fight in his last few, an unrelenting wrestling pace. He's also absorbing very little in return, with a superb 59% significant strike defense rate lately. Garry's defensive metrics don't quite stack up.

• Strength of Schedule: Rakhmonov has fought a slightly higher level of competition so far, with wins over established veterans like Neil Magny and Geoff Neal. While Garry is certainly battle-tested, he's still relatively untested against the division's elite.

• Stylistic Matchup: Historically, world-class grapplers tend to give strikers more problems than vice versa, especially if the striker's defensive wrestling isn't airtight. Rakhmonov's ability to lean on his suffocating top game is a more reliable path to victory than Garry's need to stay upright and at range kickboxing.

Past Model Performance

The model has been incredibly accurate in predicting both fighters' fights thus far.

For Rakhmonov, WolfTickets has correctly called the outcome of his last 4 fights, generally with strong confidence scores. His dominance has been well-anticipated by the algorithms.

Garry's fights have also been predicted reliably by the model across 7 previous bouts. The scorelines have fluctuated a bit more, but directionally, WolfTickets has had Garry's unbeaten run pegged consistently.

With no major prediction red flags for either fighter, and given the stylistic lean towards grapplers over strikers, the model score looks justified here in siding with Rakhmonov. The Kazakh phenom should be favored to keep his finish streak going unless Garry can make major defensive leaps.

Conclusion

While Ian Machado Garry has a bright future, this looks like a tall order against a surging Shavkat Rakhmonov. The Kazakh's overwhelming wrestling, vicious submissions and methodical pressure have befuddled a number of talented welterweights already.

For Garry to spring the minor upset, he'll need to keep this fight at kicking range, stuff any takedown attempts, and make reads on Rakhmonov's timing as he leaps in to shoot. It only takes one moment of lost concentration for Rakhmonov to change the complexion of a fight with his grappling.

Ultimately, Rakhmonov's tried-and-true path to victory via grinding clinch work and dominant top control seems more likely to carry the day over 5 rounds than Garry's strike-and-circle outside game. Don't be surprised to see the undefeated Kazakh contender pick up another submission as he continues his run towards title contention.