Analysis: Ciryl Gane vs Alexander Volkov

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Ciryl Gane to Win

Score: 20 Odds: Ciryl Gane: -295 Alexander Volkov: 220

Ciryl Gane's Breakdown

Ciryl Gane is a technical and versatile heavyweight known for his fluid striking, diverse arsenal, and strategic fight IQ. His unique blend of Muay Thai and kickboxing skills, combined with his quickness and fight intelligence, make him a formidable challenge for opponents used to powerful brawlers.

Gane's career has shown a continual evolution. He rapidly developed one of the division's best jabs and continually improves his wrestling defense and ground game to become a more well-rounded threat. His most recent win over Sergei Spivac showcased his growth, patiently breaking Spivac down with precise body work before scoring a decisive KO.

Gane excels at managing distance with long straight punches and kicks, then smoothly entering the pocket for vicious elbows and knees. Against Tai Tuivasa, he dismantled a power puncher with diverse, high volume striking and ruthless body shots. Even his loss to Francis Ngannou demonstrated his defensive grappling progress and indefatigable cardio over 5 rounds.

Gane's flaws are limited but still apparent at the highest level. Jon Jones exposed a weakness to elite wrestling, controlling him on the mat. And while his TKO loss to Ngannou came after an admirable performance, it showed he can still be outmuscled by rare super athletes. However, Gane's skills, fight IQ, and rapid improvement curve make him a puzzle for all but the best.

Alexander Volkov's Breakdown

Alexander Volkov is a seasoned technician in his own right, using his 6'7" frame and crisp boxing to methodically dismantle opponents. The former M-1 champion has notched impressive UFC wins over Fabricio Werdum, Alistair Overeem and Walt Harris with patient, high-volume striking.

Volkov's primary weapons are his sharp jab and powerful right hand, but he also boasts slick footwork, a strong clinch game, and punishing knees and kicks. He likes to keep opponents on the end of his punches, racking up damage with accuracy over power, then using his endurance to pull away late.

Recent performances have been stellar, with 3 straight finishes over Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Alexandr Romanov and Tai Tuivasa. Against Rozenstruik, Volkov's crisp boxing, front kicks and feints nullified his foe's explosive counters, setting up a picturesque combo for the KO. With Romanov and Tuivasa, he showed improved grappling and vicious ground striking.

While well-rounded, Volkov can be hit and taken down. His only UFC losses came against elite dual-threats in Curtis Blaydes, Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane himself, who negated his reach with speed and outpaced his striking. Volkov has also shown a habit of fading late in brawls, getting knocked out by Derrick Lewis after dominating early.

Previous Fight Breakdown

Gane and Volkov previously fought in June 2021, with Gane taking a unanimous decision.

The Frenchman used his superior hand speed and footwork to dart in and out of range, outstriking Volkov and evading counters. Gane landed cleaner jabs and crisper combos, plus damaging kicks to the legs and body.

While competitive early, Volkov slowed as the fight wore on, his punches falling short as Gane continued to pour it on. Gane sealed the win in Round 4 after an accidental eye poke, turning up the pressure as Volkov struggled with compromised vision.

The loss exposed Volkov's difficulties with a faster, sharper striker able to negate his reach. Gane's speed, volume and body work broke down the bigger man over 25 minutes, providing a potential blueprint for their rematch.

Analysis and Key Points

• Gane's speed and diversity: Gane's agility and wide array of strikes could be key again. His ability to switch stances, vary his strike selection, and smoothly enter and exit will make him very difficult for the more methodical Volkov to pin down.

• Body work: Gane's vicious kicks and knees to the body were crucial in their first fight and could pay dividends again if Volkov is focused on head strikes. Chopping the bigger man down with body shots will slow him late.

• Volkov's jab: Volkov will need to establish his jab early to disrupt Gane's rhythm and keep him from freely entering boxing range. Pumping the jab and following with straight rights could help back Gane off.

• Clinch battles: The clinch could be key, with both men wielding powerful knees and elbows. Volkov may look to wear on Gane by leaning on him in close. Gane will likely use his speed to angle off and create space.

• Cardio: This will likely be a long, grueling fight that tests both men's gas tanks. Gane has shown incredible stamina, while Volkov has faded in some fights. That could play a huge role in the championship rounds.

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTicketsAI favors Ciryl Gane here for several key reasons rooted in their stats and styles:

• Odds: The betting markets have installed Gane as a solid favorite, indicating the broader perception that his speed and skills are a tough matchup for Volkov.

• Striking accuracy: Gane has a sizeable edge in striking accuracy, landing at 62.8% to Volkov's 57%. His superior precision was a key factor in their first fight.

• Striking defense: Gane's 60.5% striking defense far exceeds Volkov's 51.5%, a gap that grows even wider in their recent fights (66% to 55.5%). Gane is extremely elusive and Volkov struggles to land clean on faster opponents.

• Striking output: While Volkov has a reputation as a volume puncher, Gane actually lands more strikes per minute both overall (5.96 to 5.46) and in their recent fights (6.28 to 5.92). His pace could be a problem for Volkov over 5 rounds.

• Power and knockdowns: Despite Volkov having a solid knockout record, Gane has a superior knockdown average both overall and recently. His explosive speed and tricky setups lead to more knockdowns.

So while their first fight was competitive, Gane's advantages in hand speed, striking accuracy, defense and output all point to him being a stylistic nightmare for Volkov over 25 minutes. The pick is logical given those edges.

Past Model Performance

WolfTicketsAI has had fairly strong results predicting both fighters, albeit with a notable miscue:

• For Ciryl Gane, the model is 3-1, correctly picking him to beat Sergei Spivac, Tai Tuivasa and Jairzinho Rozenstruik. The lone loss was picking him over Francis Ngannou, which was a reasonable pick in a very close fight.

• For Alexander Volkov, the model is 4-1, nailing his recent wins over Pavlovich, Tuivasa, Romanov and Rozenstruik. The miss was a slight upset loss to Tom Aspinall.

So the model has a good read on both fighters overall, with the asterisk that it did incorrectly project Gane over Ngannou in a toss-up title fight (although Gane's elite skill level keeps him a reasonable pick in almost any matchup).

Given Gane's head-to-head win, statistical edges, and the model's slightly better record projecting his fights, this shapes up as a logical prediction, although Volkov's veteran savvy makes an upset possible if Gane has an off night.

Conclusion

Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov are two of the UFC's most skilled heavyweight technicians, elite MMA kickboxers who dismantle opponents with technique over raw power. But this rematch feels like Gane's fight to lose.

His edge in speed, ability to seamlessly shift stances and techniques, and relentless cardio are a lot for a fighter as methodical as Volkov to deal with over 25 minutes. Volkov certainly has a chance with his height, power, and smarts, but he'll need to start fast, pump a busy jab, and rough Gane up in the clinch to slow the younger man's assault.

Ultimately though, I trust Gane to reprise his first victory with an even more well-rounded arsenal. Look for him to chop at Volkov's legs and body early, dart in and out with explosive combos, then pull away late as the Russian fades. Volkov is a world-class heavyweight, but Gane is a uniquely agile and fluid striker still scratching the surface of his potential. He remains a puzzling matchup for Volkov and a good bet to earn a second victory, likely by late TKO or clear decision.