Analysis: Jon Jones vs Stipe Miocic

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jon Jones to Win

Score: 28 Odds: Jon Jones: -700 Stipe Miocic: 440

Jon Jones's Breakdown

Jon Jones is widely regarded as one of the greatest mixed martial artists of all time. His well-rounded skillset, fight IQ, and ability to adapt make him a formidable opponent for anyone.

Jones excels in using his 84.5 inch reach, 8.5 inches longer than Miocic's, to keep opponents at range and pick them apart with precise kicks and punches. He mixes this up with explosive takedowns, having landed nearly 2 takedowns per fight in his UFC career.

On the mat, Jones is a nightmare. He seamlessly flows between positions, unleashing brutal ground and pound and hunting for submissions. Against Ciryl Gane, he secured a quick takedown and transitioned to an inescapable guillotine choke for the win. This grappling prowess will be a huge factor against Miocic.

Jones is also extremely durable and has never been finished by strikes in his career. His lone loss is by disqualification. He has the cardio to relentlessly pressure opponents for 5 hard rounds.

The only potential concern for Jones is the long layoff and move up to heavyweight. But he looked better than ever in his HW debut against Gane. At age 35, a focused Jones is still in his prime.

Stipe Miocic's Breakdown

Stipe Miocic is the most accomplished UFC heavyweight ever. A strong boxer with Division I wrestling credentials, Miocic has beaten legends like Arlovski, Werdum, Overeem, dos Santos, and Cormier.

On the feet, Miocic has excellent footwork and head movement. He puts together crisp boxing combinations, often finishing with hard right hands. He lands 4.8 significant strikes per minute while absorbing only 4.2.

Miocic is also very effective with his wrestling. He lands 1.86 takedowns per fight at a 34% accuracy rate. From top position, he unleashes brutal ground and pound. The Cormier trilogy showed he can nullify elite wrestlers.

However, Miocic will be at a significant disadvantage in reach against Jones. He'll have a hard time getting inside Jones' range to land his boxing combinations without eating shots.

Miocic's chin is also becoming a concern. He's been knocked out in 2 of his last 4 fights, by Francis Ngannou and Daniel Cormier. At age 40, his durability and reflexes may be declining.

Analysis and Key Points

• Jones' huge reach advantage will be very difficult for Miocic to overcome. He'll use his 84.5" reach to piece up Miocic at range.

• Jones is the far more proven and dangerous grappler. If he can take Miocic down, he can control him and unleash brutal GnP.

• Miocic has the boxing advantage, but will struggle to get inside Jones' range to land his shots. He'll likely take a lot of damage trying to close distance.

• Miocic's chin and age are becoming concerns, especially against a finisher like Jones. His last few KO losses are worrying.

• Jones has looked better than ever and is a stylistic nightmare for Miocic with his reach, versatility and grappling.

Understanding the Prediction

• Striking Impact Differential: Jones has a massive edge here at 30.73 vs 11.16 for Miocic recently. This shows Jones lands much harder shots on a relative basis.

• Significant Striking Defense Percentage: Jones' 71.3% is far better than Miocic's 61.1% recently. Jones is much harder to hit cleanly.

• Reach: Jones will have a huge 8.5 inch reach advantage. This will allow him to land shots from distance that Miocic can't easily counter.

• Recent Knockdowns per Fight: Jones at 0.25 vs 0.58 for Miocic. Miocic has been getting dropped more as he ages. Not good against a finisher like Jones.

Past Model Performance

Jon Jones: - Model is 1-0 predicting Jones' fights - Lone prediction was his win over Ciryl Gane, predicted correctly

Stipe Miocic: - No previous predictions for Miocic

With no prior data on Miocic and the model being 1-0 on Jones, there are no major red flags based on past predictions. The model got Jones' last fight correct.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI likes Jon Jones to get his hand raised against Stipe Miocic. Jones' huge reach and grappling advantages will be very difficult for the 40-year-old Miocic to overcome. While Miocic has the edge in boxing, his declining chin and Jones' reach will make it very hard for him to implement his gameplan. Expect Jones to piece Miocic up from range and potentially find a submission if he gets it to the mat. All signs point to the younger, longer, and more well-rounded Jones getting it done.