The content below shows how the model reached its conclusion for the prediction. The higher the value of the number, the more confident the model is in the prediction. The confidence scores do not perfectly correlate with accuracy. Use your judgement to see where the model may have missed the mark.
Recent Prediction
This prediction includes detailed insights.
Predicted Winner: Tim Means
Weight Class: Welterweight
Final Confidence: 11.88
Value: +10.0%
Reason: Base confidence between 10 and 13, increased by 10%
Value: -10.0%
Reason: Predicted winner lost by KO/TKO within last 12 months
Weight Change: Staying at usual weight
Weight Change: Staying at usual weight
Score: 12 Odds: Court McGee: 182 Tim Means: -240
Court McGee is a seasoned UFC veteran known for his relentless pressure, high-volume striking, and excellent cardio. His strong wrestling background allows him to secure takedowns and control fights on the ground. McGee's tenacious style and ability to absorb punishment make him a tough out for any opponent.
However, McGee's recent performances have exposed vulnerabilities in his game. He has lost his last three fights, with two of those losses coming by way of knockout. This may impact his confidence heading into the bout against Tim Means. Additionally, McGee's lack of knockout power can lead to longer fights and potential decisions, which may not favor him against a crafty veteran like Means.
Tim "The Dirty Bird" Means is a well-rounded fighter known for his diverse striking arsenal, effective clinch work, and veteran savvy. His reach advantage and proficiency in utilizing elbows and knees make him a formidable opponent in the welterweight division.
Means excels at controlling the pace of fights with his striking and clinch control. His ability to mix up strikes from various angles and employ devastating elbows in close quarters is a key aspect of his game. Means' recent performances showcase his evolution as a fighter, as he has improved his takedown defense and submission game off his back.
However, Means' aggressive style can sometimes be his downfall. He has a tendency to get drawn into brawls, which can leave him vulnerable to counter-strikes. In his recent loss to Kevin Holland, Means struggled to adapt to Holland's dynamic striking and grappling skills.
Stand-up Battle: Both fighters are comfortable on their feet, but Means has the edge in striking diversity. McGee might look to pressure Means and nullify his reach advantage with volume punching.
Clinch Warfare: Both fighters excel in the clinch. Means' elbows could be devastating here, while McGee might use this position to work for takedowns.
Ground Game: If McGee can secure takedowns, he'll look to control Means and potentially work for submissions. However, Means is dangerous off his back and could threaten with submissions of his own.
Cardio Test: McGee's relentless pace could be a factor, especially in later rounds. If he can push Means and wear him down, it could swing the fight in his favor.
WolfTicketsAI's prediction of a Tim Means victory likely stems from several key factors:
Striking Impact Differential: Tim Means holds a significant advantage in striking impact differential (23.97 vs 12.73), suggesting he lands more impactful strikes than McGee.
Recent Performances: Court McGee has lost his last three fights, two by knockout. His recent win percentage is 0%, while Means' is 33%. This suggests Means has had more success in recent outings.
Striking Defense: Means has a slight edge in striking defense percentage (56.10% vs 56.44%), indicating he may be better at avoiding damage.
In past predictions, WolfTicketsAI has had mixed results for both fighters:
For Court McGee, the model correctly predicted 2 out of his last 4 fights, with incorrect predictions in his last two bouts.
For Tim Means, the model has correctly predicted his last 5 fights, although Means has alternated wins and losses during this stretch.
The model's recent accuracy for Means bodes well for its current prediction. However, the incorrect predictions for McGee's last two fights suggest some caution may be warranted, as the model may not have fully accounted for his recent decline.
This fight is likely to be a technical, back-and-forth affair with both fighters having moments of success. McGee's pressure and volume could be the key to victory if he can avoid Means' power shots and elbows in the clinch. Conversely, Means' diverse striking and veteran savvy could allow him to pick apart McGee at range and potentially secure a finish.
While Court McGee's grappling skills and relentless pressure make him a tough out for anyone, Tim Means' striking versatility, clinch work, and recent form give him the edge in this matchup. The model's prediction of a Means victory aligns with the underlying data, which shows Means' advantages in striking impact and recent performance.
However, the ever-resilient Court McGee is more than capable of making this a grueling, back-and-forth battle. His exceptional cardio and ability to absorb punishment could be crucial factors if he can weather Means' early storm and drag him into deep waters.
Stat | Court McGee | Tim Means | Weight Class Average | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Main Stats | ||||
Age | 39 | 40 | 33 | |
Height | 71" | 74" | 72" | |
Reach | 75" | 75" | 74" | |
Win Percentage | 62.86% | 67.35% | 78.84% | |
Wins | 23 | 33 | ||
Losses | 13 | 17 | ||
Wins at Weight Class | 7 | 13 | ||
Losses at Weight Class | 10 | 12 | ||
Striking Stats | ||||
Striking Accuracy | 44.41% | 56.11% | 49.91% | |
Significant Striking Accuracy | 37.13% | 49.14% | 44.94% | |
Strikes Landed Per Minute | 6.453 | 6.879 | 5.454 | |
Significant Strikes Landed Per Minute | 4.600 | 5.083 | 4.169 | |
Knockdowns per Fight | 0.158 | 0.578 | 0.656 | |
Striking Impact Differential | 25.18% | 23.97% | 5.80% | |
Significant Striking Impact Differential | 12.73% | 14.17% | 4.12% | |
Striking Output Differential | 54.14% | 21.00% | 6.95% | |
Significant Striking Output Differential | 39.36% | 11.24% | 5.19% | |
Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 90.54% | 82.60% | 83.79% | |
Significant Striking Defense to Offense Ratio | 124.64% | 109.37% | 101.82% | |
Striking Defense Percentage | 61.31% | 60.40% | 49.76% | |
Takedown and Submission Stats | ||||
Submissions per Fight | 0.421 | 0.158 | 0.548 | |
Takedowns per Fight | 1.842 | 1.155 | 1.285 | |
Takedowns Attempted per Fight | 7.263 | 2.888 | 3.325 | |
Takedown Defense | 43.75% | 52.94% | 71.54% | |
Takedown Accuracy | 25.36% | 40.00% | 34.43% | |
Head Stats | ||||
Head Strikes Landed per Minute | 2.421 | 3.091 | 2.676 | |
Head Strikes Attempted per Minute | 8.972 | 7.659 | 6.708 | |
Head Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 2.554 | 2.534 | 2.381 | |
Body Stats | ||||
Body Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.025 | 1.425 | 0.851 | |
Body Strikes Attempted per Minute | 1.961 | 2.069 | 1.203 | |
Body Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.649 | 0.658 | 0.766 | |
Leg Stats | ||||
Leg Strikes Landed per Minute | 1.154 | 0.567 | 0.642 | |
Leg kicks Attempted per Minute | 1.456 | 0.616 | 0.783 | |
Leg kicks Absorbed per Minute | 0.414 | 0.452 | 0.641 | |
Clinch Stats | ||||
Clinch Strikes Landed per Minute | 0.281 | 0.707 | 0.415 | |
Clinch Strikes Attempted per Minute | 0.516 | 0.945 | 0.570 | |
Clinch Strikes Absorbed per Minute | 0.284 | 0.357 | 0.371 |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
April 6, 2024 | Welterweight | Court McGee | Alex Morono | Alex Morono | |
May 13, 2023 | Welterweight | Matt Brown | Court McGee | Matt Brown | |
June 18, 2022 | Welterweight | Court McGee | Jeremiah Wells | Jeremiah Wells | |
Jan. 15, 2022 | Welterweight | Court McGee | Ramiz Brahimaj | Court McGee | |
May 22, 2021 | Welterweight | Court McGee | Claudio Silva | Court McGee | |
Oct. 3, 2020 | Welterweight | Carlos Condit | Court McGee | Carlos Condit | |
Oct. 18, 2019 | Welterweight | Court McGee | Sean Brady | Sean Brady | |
April 27, 2019 | Welterweight | Court McGee | Dhiego Lima | Dhiego Lima | |
Oct. 27, 2018 | Welterweight | Alex Garcia | Court McGee | Court McGee | |
Nov. 11, 2017 | Welterweight | Court McGee | Sean Strickland | Sean Strickland | |
Jan. 15, 2017 | Welterweight | Court McGee | Ben Saunders | Ben Saunders | |
Aug. 6, 2016 | Welterweight | Court McGee | Dominique Steele | Court McGee | |
April 16, 2016 | Welterweight | Court McGee | Santiago Ponzinibbio | Santiago Ponzinibbio | |
Dec. 12, 2015 | Welterweight | Court McGee | Marcio Alexandre Junior | Court McGee | |
Dec. 14, 2013 | Welterweight | Court McGee | Ryan LaFlare | Ryan LaFlare | |
Aug. 28, 2013 | Welterweight | Court McGee | Robert Whittaker | Court McGee | |
Feb. 23, 2013 | Welterweight | Court McGee | Josh Neer | Court McGee | |
July 21, 2012 | Middleweight | Court McGee | Nick Ring | Nick Ring | |
March 2, 2012 | Middleweight | Court McGee | Constantinos Philippou | Constantinos Philippou | |
Sept. 17, 2011 | Middleweight | Court McGee | Dongi Yang | Court McGee | |
Oct. 23, 2010 | Middleweight | Court McGee | Ryan Jensen | Court McGee | |
June 19, 2010 | Ultimate Fighter 11 Middleweight Tournament Title | Court McGee | Kris McCray | Court McGee |
Date | Weight | Elevation | Red Corner | Blue Corner | Winner |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
April 27, 2024 | Welterweight | Tim Means | Uros Medic | Uros Medic | |
Sept. 23, 2023 | Welterweight | Tim Means | Andre Fialho | Tim Means | |
May 13, 2023 | Welterweight | Tim Means | Alex Morono | Alex Morono | |
Oct. 29, 2022 | Welterweight | Tim Means | Max Griffin | Max Griffin | |
June 18, 2022 | Welterweight | Tim Means | Kevin Holland | Kevin Holland | |
June 26, 2021 | Welterweight | Tim Means | Nicolas Dalby | Tim Means | |
Nov. 21, 2020 | Welterweight | Mike Perry | Tim Means | Tim Means | |
Aug. 8, 2020 | Welterweight | Tim Means | Laureano Staropoli | Tim Means | |
Feb. 15, 2020 | Welterweight | Tim Means | Daniel Rodriguez | Daniel Rodriguez | |
Dec. 7, 2019 | Welterweight | Thiago Alves | Tim Means | Tim Means | |
March 9, 2019 | Welterweight | Tim Means | Niko Price | Niko Price | |
Nov. 30, 2018 | Welterweight | Tim Means | Ricky Rainey | Tim Means | |
Feb. 3, 2018 | Welterweight | Sergio Moraes | Tim Means | Sergio Moraes | |
Nov. 18, 2017 | Welterweight | Tim Means | Belal Muhammad | Belal Muhammad | |
June 25, 2017 | Welterweight | Tim Means | Alex Garcia | Tim Means | |
March 11, 2017 | Welterweight | Alex Oliveira | Tim Means | Alex Oliveira | |
Dec. 30, 2016 | Welterweight | Alex Oliveira | Tim Means | None | |
Aug. 20, 2016 | Welterweight | Tim Means | Sabah Homasi | Tim Means | |
Dec. 10, 2015 | Welterweight | Tim Means | John Howard | Tim Means | |
July 11, 2015 | Welterweight | Matt Brown | Tim Means | Matt Brown | |
April 18, 2015 | Welterweight | George Sullivan | Tim Means | Tim Means | |
Feb. 28, 2015 | Welterweight | Dhiego Lima | Tim Means | Tim Means | |
Dec. 20, 2014 | Welterweight | Marcio Alexandre Junior | Tim Means | Tim Means | |
July 26, 2014 | Welterweight | Hernani Perpetuo | Tim Means | Tim Means | |
May 10, 2014 | Welterweight | Neil Magny | Tim Means | Neil Magny | |
July 27, 2013 | Lightweight | Danny Castillo | Tim Means | Danny Castillo | |
April 20, 2013 | Lightweight | Tim Means | Jorge Masvidal | Jorge Masvidal | |
June 8, 2012 | Lightweight | Tim Means | Justin Salas | Tim Means | |
Feb. 15, 2012 | Lightweight | Tim Means | Bernardo Magalhaes | Tim Means |