Analysis: Irene Aldana vs Norma Dumont

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Norma Dumont to Win

Score: 4 Odds: Irene Aldana: -110 Norma Dumont: -110

Irene Aldana's Breakdown

Irene Aldana is a well-rounded fighter with strong striking skills, particularly her boxing. She has heavy hands and looks to pressure opponents with high volume punching combinations. Aldana's body shots are a key weapon, as seen in her liver kick KO over Macy Chiasson. She's tough and aggressive, always marching forward.

However, wrestling and grappling have been Aldana's Achilles heel in some fights. Against top grapplers like Holly Holm and Amanda Nunes, she struggled to stay off her back. Aldana's takedown defense and ability to get back to her feet will be crucial in this matchup.

Her last fight, a decision loss to Nunes, showed both Aldana's strengths and weaknesses. She had moments on the feet but ultimately couldn't stop Nunes' takedowns. Aldana will need to shore up those defensive holes to secure a win here.

Norma Dumont's Breakdown

Norma Dumont is a physical specimen with an aggressive, grinding style. She comes from a Sanda background, seamlessly blending striking and wrestling. On the feet, she's a hard-nosed Muay Thai fighter who throws heavy leather. But it's her grappling that really shines.

Dumont is a tremendous wrestler, averaging nearly 2 takedowns per fight in the UFC. She's absolutely relentless in pursuing takedowns, driving through her opponents. Once she gets the fight to the mat, Dumont suffocates with pressure and control.

We saw this in her last fight, a one-sided decision over Germaine de Randamie. Dumont ragdolled the former champion, taking her down at will. She's used a similar template to dominate Karol Rosa, Danyelle Wolf and Aspen Ladd in her current 4-fight win streak.

Analysis and Key Points

This fight comes down to a few key factors:

• Aldana's takedown defense: Can she keep this fight standing? Stuffing Dumont's shots is priority #1.
• Dumont's pressure and wrestling: Dumont will look to overwhelm Aldana with physicality, close distance and chain wrestle.
• Striking exchanges: If Aldana can maintain distance, her technical boxing could be a major factor. But she has to make Dumont pay on entries.

Aldana's path to victory is sprawling and brawling - stopping takedowns and making this an extended kickboxing match. Dumont wants to drag Aldana into deep waters, grinding her down with clinches and mat returns.

Understanding the Prediction

WolfTicketsAI predicts Norma Dumont to win based on a few key data points:

• Takedowns per Fight: Dumont averages 1.91 takedowns per fight compared to just 0.16 for Aldana. Dumont's wrestling prowess tips the scales.

• Striking Defense Percentage: Although Aldana has the edge in raw striking metrics, Dumont has the superior striking defense at 66% vs 57%. Dumont's defensive grappling makes her harder to hit cleanly.

• Recent Wins: Dumont is on a 4-fight streak with dominant wins. She's peaking at the right time. Meanwhile, Aldana is 2-1 in her last 3 and coming off a lopsided loss to Nunes.

The odds for this fight are a pick'em, implying it's a close matchup. But the model favors Dumont's overpowering wrestling attack given Aldana's past struggles with top grapplers. If Dumont can close distance consistently, she has a clear path to victory.

Past Model Performance

The model has been quite accurate in predicting both fighters:

• Aldana: 3 correct picks in her last 3 fights, including the Nunes loss
• Dumont: 3 correct picks in her last 4 fights

So the model has a good track record here. The one missed pick was Dumont's split decision loss to Macy Chiasson, an extremely close fight. No major red flags.

Conclusion

Aldana has the more refined standup game and could definitely piece up Dumont if she can keep it standing. But Dumont's suffocating wrestling is built to give a boxer like Aldana fits.

Considering Aldana's takedown defense issues and Dumont's unstoppable wrestling lately, WolfTicketsAI's Dumont prediction looks solid. The longer this fight goes, the more it favors Dumont's grueling grappling assault. Barring a quick KO from Aldana, Dumont grinds her way to a decision victory or late finish after drowning Aldana over time.

I'm confident in the model's fairly strong lean towards Dumont here given the style clash and recent performances. She's the rightful favorite to keep rolling with her wrestle-heavy approach.