Analysis: Edgar Chairez vs Joshua Van

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Joshua Van to Win

Score: 21 Odds: Edgar Chairez: +168 Joshua Van: -220

Edgar Chairez's Breakdown

Edgar "Puro Chicali" Chairez is a skilled grappler with 7 submission victories in his 11 career wins. In his last fight, he showcased his slick ground game by securing a first-round submission over Daniel Lacerda. Chairez uses an array of kicks, including front kicks and spinning attacks, to set up his level changes and takedowns.

However, Chairez is coming off a loss to top prospect Tatsuro Taira last July, where he was largely controlled and neutralized on the mat. His striking defense (27.7%) and significant strike defense (36.7%) are potential liabilities against a powerful puncher like Van. Chairez will need to close the distance early and drag Van into a grappling match to have his best chance at victory.

Joshua Van's Breakdown

Rising star Joshua Van is a dynamic striker with 6 KO/TKO wins in his young career. The 22-year-old averages a whopping 8.55 significant strikes landed per minute in the UFC, while absorbing just 5.54 in return. Van's volume and pressure could overwhelm Chairez if he can keep the fight standing.

That said, Van is coming off his first UFC loss, a third-round KO defeat against Charles Johnson in July. It snapped an impressive 8-fight win streak for Van. While he has shown solid takedown defense (71.5%), he was controlled on the ground at times by Johnson, which could be problematic against a submission threat like Chairez. Maintaining distance and unloading combinations will be vital for Van.

Analysis and Key Points

• This is a classic grappler vs striker matchup. Chairez will look to take it to the ground, while Van wants to keep it standing.
• Chairez's path to victory: Secure an early takedown and work for a submission or control from top position. His grappling could be the great equalizer.
• Van's path to victory: Use footwork to maintain distance, stuff takedown attempts, and unleash punching flurries. If he can avoid the ground, his striking should take over.
• Van is 10 years younger and should have the speed and athleticism advantage. However, his KO loss last time out raises questions.
• Chairez is more experienced and well-rounded, but his striking defense holes are concerning against a dangerous puncher like Van.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The betting odds significantly favor Van (-220), which aligns with the model's prediction. Van's odds suggest the betting market sees him as the clear favorite.
• Significant Striking Impact Differential: Chairez lands 7.67 fewer significant strikes per minute than he absorbs, while Van lands 27.5 more. This stark difference likely factored heavily into the model picking Van.
• Striking Defense: Van's striking defense (58.2%) and significant strike defense (58.8%) are much better than Chairez's (27.7% and 36.7%, respectively). The model likely sees this as a major advantage for Van.

Past Model Performance

In Chairez's last two fights, WolfTickets predicted him to win both times, but he went 1-1 with a win over Daniel Lacerda and a loss to Lacerda in the first meeting that was later overturned.

For Van, the model incorrectly predicted him to beat Charles Johnson in his last fight, which he lost by third-round KO.

Given the model's mixed results in predicting these fighters recently, there is some uncertainty around the prediction. However, the odds, stats and stylistic matchup still seem to favor Van overall.

Conclusion

Rising star Joshua Van looks to bounce back from his first UFC loss against crafty veteran Edgar Chairez. While Chairez's grappling prowess is a threat, Van's striking volume, power and defense should be the difference if he can stuff takedowns and keep it standing. In what should be an action-packed fight, WolfTickets sees Van's youth, athleticism and boxing as enough to get his hand raised. But don't count out the experienced Chairez, who has the submission skills to end the fight at any moment if he can drag Van into his world on the mat.