Analysis: Jack Jenkins vs Herbert Burns

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jack Jenkins to Win

Score: 29 Odds: Jack Jenkins: -950 Herbert Burns: 600

Jack Jenkins's Breakdown

Jack Jenkins, the Australian striking specialist, enters this bout with a record of 12 wins and 3 losses. Known for his powerful left kick and precision striking, Jenkins has finished 5 of his victories by knockout. His kickboxing background allows him to effectively control distance and pick apart opponents on the feet.

In his UFC career, Jenkins has landed an impressive 234 significant strikes out of 381 attempted, showcasing his accuracy. He's also displayed solid takedown defense, successfully defending 9 out of 13 attempts.

However, Jenkins is coming off a TKO loss to Chepe Mariscal in September 2023, which ended his 10-fight winning streak. The nearly year-long layoff could impact his performance, but it has also given him time to recover and potentially sharpen his skills.

Jenkins' most recent UFC outings include a split-decision victory over Jamall Emmers in June 2023 and a unanimous decision win against Don Shainis in his debut. In these fights, he showcased his wrestling ability, landing takedowns and controlling the action on the ground.

Herbert Burns's Breakdown

Herbert Burns, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist, holds a record of 11 wins and 5 losses. A dangerous submission artist, Burns has secured 8 of his 11 victories by way of submission. His grappling prowess is his key to victory in most of his fights.

However, Burns finds himself on a three-fight skid, all ending by way of TKO. His most recent loss came against Julio Arce in March 2024, following defeats to Bill Algeo and Daniel Pineda. These losses highlight a glaring weakness in Burns' striking defense, as he absorbs 3.45 significant strikes per minute in his recent fights.

Burns has not competed since July 2022, where he suffered his third consecutive TKO loss. This extended layoff may have allowed him to address his striking deficiencies, but ring rust could also be a factor.

On the ground, Burns remains a formidable threat. He averages 2.24 submission attempts per fight and has a highlight-reel submission win over Evan Dunham on his record.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking vs Grappling: Jenkins' precise striking and kickboxing pedigree will clash with Burns' submission-oriented game. The outcome may hinge on who can impose their preferred style.
• Takedown Defense: Jenkins has defended 69% of takedowns attempted against him in the UFC. This defensive prowess will be tested against Burns' aggressive grappling approach.
• Submission Threat: If Burns can weather Jenkins' striking and secure a takedown, he possesses the submission skills to end the fight quickly. Jenkins must be wary of Burns' ground game.
• Recent Form: Both fighters are coming off losses and significant layoffs. How they've used this time to improve and adjust will be a key factor.

Understanding the Prediction

• Striking Advantage: Jenkins' superior striking accuracy, power, and defense have swayed the model in his favor. His ability to control range and land impactful strikes is a significant asset.
• Grappling Risk: While Burns' submission skills are dangerous, his recent struggles to implement his grappling and his striking deficiencies have diminished the model's confidence in him.
• Recent Performance: Jenkins' recent victories, showcasing his multi-faceted game, have bolstered his standing in the model's assessment. Burns' three-fight losing streak, all by TKO, has raised red flags.

Past Model Performance

The WolfTicketsAI model has a mixed track record with these fighters:

• For Jenkins, the model incorrectly predicted him to win against Chepe Mariscal and Jamall Emmers.
• For Burns, the model correctly predicted his loss to Julio Arce but incorrectly picked him to beat Bill Algeo.

Given the model's historical inaccuracies with both men, this prediction carries some inherent uncertainty.

Conclusion

WolfTicketsAI is siding with Jack Jenkins' striking acumen and defensive grappling over Herbert Burns' submission prowess and recent form. The model believes Jenkins can use his kickboxing skills to maintain distance, pick apart Burns on the feet, and defend against takedowns.

However, Burns' world-class Brazilian jiu-jitsu remains a constant threat. If he can close the distance, secure a takedown, and start hunting for submissions, the dynamics of the fight could change rapidly.

The extended layoffs for both men add an element of unpredictability. Ring rust could be a factor, or the time off may have allowed for crucial adjustments and improvements.

As with any MMA fight, there are multiple paths to victory for both men. Jenkins appears to have more avenues to success, but in a sport as volatile as MMA, one well-timed strike or split-second mistake could alter the course of the contest.