UFC Event Results

July 27, 2024

UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2

Manchester, England
40.00m Elevation

Model Performance Summary (% Correct)

WTAI Model

Main: 60.0% Under: 50.0% Full: 53.85%

Profit Model

Main: 60.0% Under: 62.5% Full: 61.54%

Plain Model

Main: 40.0% Under: 50.0% Full: 46.15%

Selected Bets Results

ROI: %

Parlay #1

Belal Muhammad

Win

-235

Strength: 11.0 points
EV: 0.0%

Giga Chikadze

Win

-260

Strength: 10.0 points
EV: -2.1%

Bruna Brasil

Win

-350

Strength: 26.0 points
EV: 1.4%

Total Odds

2.54x

Return on $10 Bet

$15.38

Parlay #2

Curtis Blaydes

Win

-390

Strength: 21.0 points
EV: -0.4%

Daniel Pineda

Win

-500

Strength: 28.0 points
EV: -4.2%

Kiefer Crosbie

Win

-360

Strength: 22.0 points
EV: 0.9%

Total Odds

1.93x

Return on $10 Bet

$9.26

Parlay #3

Curtis Blaydes

Win

-390

Strength: 21.0 points
EV: -0.4%

Bruna Brasil

Win

-350

Strength: 26.0 points
EV: 1.4%

Total Odds

1.62x

Return on $10 Bet

$6.15

Parlay #4

Giga Chikadze

Win

-260

Strength: 10.0 points
EV: -2.1%

Kiefer Crosbie

Win

-360

Strength: 22.0 points
EV: 0.9%

Total Odds

1.77x

Return on $10 Bet

$7.69

Parlay #5

Belal Muhammad

Win

-235

Strength: 11.0 points
EV: 0.0%

Daniel Pineda

Win

-500

Strength: 28.0 points
EV: -4.2%

Total Odds

1.71x

Return on $10 Bet

$7.11

The tables below show how the model predictions performed. Confidence scores indicate the model's certainty.

Correct predictions are shown in normal text, incorrect predictions are highlighted in red.

WTAI = WTAI Model Profit = Profit Model Plain = Plain Model EV = Expected Value
Fighter
W
EV
Odds
W
O
P
Leon Edwards
11
14
8
0.0
-235
Belal Muhammad
+180
Tom Aspinall
21
19
15
-0.4
-390
Curtis Blaydes
+280
King Green
8
14
12
14.2
-122
Paddy Pimblett
-104
Muhammad Mokaev
6
11
11
2.8
-146
Manel Kape
+114
Arnold Allen
10
14
-2.1
-260
Giga Chikadze
9
+196

Fight Analysis Recap

Click on any fight below to expand the detailed AI analysis and SHAP chart explaining the prediction.