Analysis: Mayra Bueno Silva vs Macy Chiasson

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Mayra Bueno Silva to Win

Score: 2 Odds: Mayra Bueno Silva: -155 Macy Chiasson: 130

Mayra Bueno Silva's Breakdown

Mayra Bueno Silva, a Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialist, has proven to be a submission threat in the UFC. With a UFC record of 5-2-1 (1 NC), Silva's grappling prowess is evident in her three submission victories. Her armbar is particularly lethal, having used it to secure multiple victories. Silva's striking defense has improved over time, currently boasting a 53% significant striking defense percentage. While not her primary strength, Silva has shown improvement in her striking, averaging around 3 significant strikes per minute. Her ability to threaten submissions from various positions makes her a constant danger on the ground.

Macy Chiasson's Breakdown

Macy Chiasson, a well-rounded fighter with a UFC record of 7-3, is coming off a submission victory over Pannie Kianzad. Chiasson's game is characterized by her high-volume striking and strong wrestling. She averages 7.15 strikes landed per minute, significantly higher than Silva's 5.38. Chiasson's takedown game is noteworthy, attempting 6.4 takedowns per fight with a 37.21% accuracy. At 5'11" with a 72" reach, Chiasson has a significant height and reach advantage over Silva (5'6" with a 66.5" reach). Her most recent performance showed her grappling improvements, securing a rare submission win.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking Volume: Chiasson has a significant edge in striking output, landing 7.15 strikes per minute compared to Silva's 5.38.
• Grappling Threats: Silva's submission game (1.51 submissions per fight) poses a constant threat, while Chiasson's wrestling could be a key factor.
• Size Advantage: Chiasson's 6-inch reach advantage could play a significant role in the striking exchanges.
• Takedown Battle: Silva's improved takedown defense will be crucial against Chiasson's wrestling-heavy approach.
• Submission vs Ground Control: Silva's dangerous guard will be pitted against Chiasson's top control.
• Cardio and Pace: Both fighters have gone the distance multiple times. Chiasson's wrestling-heavy approach might be more taxing, potentially giving Silva an advantage in later rounds.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The betting odds heavily favor Silva, significantly influencing the model's prediction.
• Recent Win Percentage: Silva's higher recent win percentage has positively impacted the prediction.
• Striking Defense: Silva's superior striking defense percentages, both overall and recent, have boosted her chances in the model's view.
• Reach: Chiasson's reach advantage has been factored in, slightly decreasing Silva's predicted chances.
• Significant Striking Impact: Chiasson's edge in significant striking impact differential has been noted, slightly favoring her in the model's calculation.

Past Model Performance

The model has shown strong performance in predicting Silva's fights, correctly calling her last five UFC bouts. This track record lends credibility to the current prediction favoring Silva. For Chiasson, the model's recent performance is mixed, correctly predicting her win against Kianzad but missing on the Dumont fight. This mixed record for Chiasson suggests some caution in interpreting the prediction, although the model's consistent success with Silva outweighs this concern.

Conclusion

While Chiasson's volume striking, wrestling, and size advantage present real challenges, Silva's lethal submission threat and improved striking defense make her a formidable opponent. The model's strong track record with Silva, combined with her recent form and the betting odds, support the prediction of a Silva victory. However, Chiasson's reach advantage and high-output striking style could make this a closely contested battle. The outcome may hinge on who can impose their preferred fighting style: Silva's dangerous submission game or Chiasson's wrestling and ground control. Silva will need to close the distance effectively to negate Chiasson's reach advantage, while Chiasson must be wary of engaging on the ground due to Silva's submission threats. This stylistic clash promises an intriguing and potentially back-and-forth contest.