Analysis: Cub Swanson vs Andre Fili

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Andre Fili to Win

Score: 11 Odds: Cub Swanson: 160 Andre Fili: -195

Cub Swanson's Breakdown

Cub Swanson, the 40-year-old veteran, brings a creative and unorthodox striking style to the octagon. His signature move, a ducking roundhouse kick or cartwheel kick to the head, often set up by a left hook, has been a key factor in his impressive 13 knockout victories. Swanson's frequent stance switching adds unpredictability to his attacks but can occasionally leave him vulnerable.

With a record of 29-13 (14-9 UFC), Swanson's experience shines through in his recent performances. He's won 4 of his last 6 fights, showcasing improved takedown defense and maintaining his knockout power, as evidenced by his TKO victory over Daniel Pineda in 2020. His high output of 5.17 significant strikes landed per minute and effective leg kicks (1.07 landed per minute) make him a constant threat on the feet.

However, Swanson's aggressive style, putting significant weight into his strikes, can sometimes leave him off-balance and susceptible to counterattacks. His takedown defense ratio of 0.40 has been a historical weakness, though recent improvements in this area could prove crucial against Fili's wrestling background.

Andre Fili's Breakdown

Andre Fili, at 33, represents the younger generation of well-rounded MMA fighters. His record of 23-11 (12-10 UFC) reflects his diverse skill set, with victories spread across knockouts, submissions, and decisions. Fili's approach is more conventional than Swanson's but no less effective, mixing solid striking with a strong wrestling base.

Fili's striking output (3.85 significant strikes landed per minute) is lower than Swanson's, but he compensates with a higher takedown rate of 2.16 per fight. His improved takedown defense in recent bouts adds another layer to his game, potentially nullifying opponents' wrestling advantages.

A key strength for Fili is his cardio and ability to push a high pace, which could be a significant factor if the fight extends into later rounds. His recent form has been inconsistent (2-2 in his last 4 fights), but his KO victory over Lucas Almeida demonstrates his finishing ability.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking Styles Clash: Swanson's unorthodox, creative striking versus Fili's more conventional but diverse attack.
• Grappling Wildcard: Fili's wrestling background could be a deciding factor, especially given Swanson's historical takedown defense issues.
• Experience vs. Youth: Swanson's veteran savvy against Fili's athletic prime creates an intriguing dynamic.
• Pace and Cardio: Both fighters have good cardio, but Fili tends to push a higher pace, which could be crucial in later rounds.
• Recent Form: Swanson's 4-2 record in his last 6 fights gives him momentum, while Fili's alternating results create uncertainty.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The betting odds favor Fili, but the model sees this as potentially overvalued.
• Recent Significant Striking Defense: Fili's superior recent defense is a key factor in the prediction.
• Recent Win Percentage: Fili's lower recent win rate is surprisingly seen as a positive, possibly indicating tougher competition.
• Striking Impact: Despite Swanson's positive recent striking impact differential (13.12 vs Fili's -2.74), the model still favors Fili, suggesting other factors are weighted more heavily.

Past Model Performance

The model has shown more consistent accuracy with Fili's recent fights compared to Swanson's, lending some credence to its current prediction. However, the mixed results, particularly with Swanson, suggest caution in interpreting the prediction.

Conclusion

This matchup promises to be a closely contested striking battle with potential for grappling exchanges. Swanson's creative, unorthodox style will clash with Fili's more conventional but diverse striking. The outcome may hinge on who can impose their rhythm and potentially mix in successful takedowns or control against the cage.

While the model leans towards Fili, Swanson's recent form and the exciting nature of his fights (10 fight night bonuses in UFC/WEC featherweight bouts) make him a dangerous underdog. Expect an exciting, back-and-forth contest that could easily go the distance, with Fili's wrestling and pace potentially being the differentiator in a close decision. However, Swanson's experience and knockout power mean he's always a threat to end the fight dramatically at any moment.