Analysis: Phil Rowe vs Jake Matthews

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jake Matthews to Win

Score: 7 Odds: Phil Rowe: +135 Jake Matthews: -165

Phil Rowe's Breakdown

Phil "The Fresh Prince" Rowe is a talented welterweight striker with impressive length and power. At 6'3" with an 80.5" reach, Rowe will have a sizeable advantage over the 5'11" Matthews. Rowe uses his reach well, landing 3.94 significant strikes per minute at a 52% accuracy rate.

Rowe has showcased his finishing abilities in his last three wins, scoring knockouts over Niko Price, Jason Witt, and Orion Cosce. His explosive striking and heavy right hand make him a constant KO threat.

On the ground, Rowe is a capable submission artist with 4 submission wins on his record. He attempts 0.85 takedowns per 15 minutes but may focus more on keeping this fight standing.

Defensively, there are some concerns for Rowe. He absorbs 4.32 significant strikes per minute and has a lower striking defense rate of 54%. His takedown defense of 59% could be tested by Matthews' grappling.

Jake Matthews' Breakdown

Jake "The Celtic Kid" Matthews is a well-rounded fighter with a background in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, holding a black belt. He has finished 11 of his 19 wins, proving dangerous both on the feet and the mat.

While he doesn't possess Rowe's length, Matthews is a technical striker who lands 3.3 significant strikes per minute at a 45% clip. He makes up for lower output with better defense, absorbing only 2.56 strikes per minute with 60% striking defense.

Matthews' grappling could be a key factor. He attempts 1.91 takedowns per 15 minutes and has very good takedown defense at 83%. If he can take Rowe down, Matthews has a strong submission threat, averaging 0.6 submissions per 15 minutes.

Matthews has been fighting at the highest level for a long time, debuting in the UFC in 2014. However, he has shown some vulnerability, being finished in 3 of his 7 losses.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striker vs Grappler: Rowe's powerful striking contrasts with Matthews' grappling base. Who can impose their style?
• Can Rowe keep it standing? Rowe's takedown defense needs to hold up against Matthews' wrestling and submissions.
• Will length be a factor? Rowe's 5-inch height and 7.5-inch reach advantage could be key on the feet.
• Matthews' chin a concern: With 3 KO/TKO losses, Matthews needs to avoid Rowe's power shots.
• Experience edge for Matthews: He has been in the UFC much longer and fought a higher level of competition.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: Matthews being a decent favorite decreased the prediction score, seeing him as more likely to win.
• Reach: Rowe's significant reach advantage increased the score, suggesting this could help him on the feet.
• Recent Significant Striking Impact Differential: Rowe landing less significant damage compared to absorbing recently notably lowered the score.
• Striking Defense Percentage: Rowe's weaker striking defense lowered the score.
• Recent Win Percentage: Matthews' lower recent win rate increased the score for Rowe.
• Recent Striking Impact Differential & Average Striking Output Differential: Matthews landing more strikes and damage recently bumped up his score.

Past Model Performance

The model is 2-1 in predicting Matthews' last 3 fights, incorrectly picking him to beat Andre Fialho but correctly taking him to beat Jeremiah Wells and Luigi Vendramini.

For Rowe, the model has been spot on, going 3-0 in predicting his last 3 fights (all wins).

With Matthews on a bit of an upswing and Rowe on an impressive streak, there's reason to believe this fight could be highly competitive. The model has been perfect on Rowe lately while mostly accurate on Matthews.

Conclusion

This matchup showcases two talented welterweights in a classic clash of styles. Rowe's lengthy, powerful striking poses issues for Matthews, but the Aussie's grappling skills could be the equalizer.

Matthews' path to victory likely involves using his wrestling to ground Rowe and work towards a submission. But he can't be reckless closing the distance, as Rowe possesses legitimate one-punch knockout power.

For Rowe to get the upset, defensive grappling will be key. If he can stuff takedowns and force Matthews into a kickboxing match, his length and striking could take over.

While the model leans towards Matthews and the oddsmakers have him as a moderate favorite, this fight feels very competitive. Rowe's reach, power, and momentum make him a live underdog capable of securing a statement win.

The stakes are high, with the winner likely to enter the welterweight rankings. With both men looking to make a name at 170 pounds, expect an intense battle. The upset is a real possibility, but the model and betting market could certainly be proven right. No matter what, fight fans should be in for a treat.