Analysis: Niko Price vs Alex Morono

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Alex Morono to Win

Score: 13 Odds: Niko Price: +170 Alex Morono: -210

Niko Price's Breakdown

Niko Price is an explosive fighter known for his high-octane, fan-friendly style. He's always looking to engage in striking battles and has the power to end fights quickly with his knockout ability. Price will enjoy a 4-inch reach advantage over Morono which he could use to land strikes from distance.

However, Price's hyper-aggressive approach has also been his downfall at times, especially recently. He's lost 3 of his last 5 fights and is coming off a KO/TKO loss to Robbie Lawler. His striking defense is porous, absorbing 3.74 head strikes per minute.

While Price has a solid ground game with his BJJ background, he often forgoes grappling in favor of striking wars. This could be a liability against Morono's more well-rounded game.

Alex Morono's Breakdown

Alex Morono is a highly technical fighter, especially on the ground with his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt. He's very competent at controlling opponents on the mat and looking for submissions, with 4 submission wins in the UFC.

On the feet, Morono is a crisp striker who uses good footwork and a sharp jab to manage distance. He lands 4.87 significant strikes per minute at 41% accuracy while maintaining strong defense, absorbing just 2.02 head strikes per minute.

Morono has shown improvement and good form recently, winning 3 of his last 5 including a decision over the durable Court McGee. His experience edge with 33 pro fights could also be a factor.

Previous Fight Breakdown

Price and Morono fought once before in 2017, with Price initially winning by KO/TKO before the fight was overturned to a no contest due to Price testing positive for marijuana. The history adds an interesting subplot to the rematch.

Analysis and Key Points

• Striking Favors Morono: Morono is the sharper, more defensively responsible striker which should help him in prolonged exchanges. He lands more significant strikes per minute than Price with much better defense.

• Price's Power Is a Wild Card: Despite Morono's striking advantages, Price's explosive power means he's always a threat, especially early. If he can land cleanly, he could end the fight quickly.

• Grappling Battle Intrigues: Both fighters have strong BJJ backgrounds so the grappling exchanges will be fascinating. Morono likely has the edge with his more submission-oriented game.

• Momentum With Morono: Morono has been the more successful fighter recently, going 6-2 in his last 8 compared to Price's 2-5-1 run. The trajectory seems to favor Morono.

Understanding the Prediction

• Odds: The betting odds see Morono as a solid -210 favorite, indicating the smart money is on him. This aligns with the model's prediction.

• Recent Form: Morono's 67% win rate in his last 9 fights compared to just 33% for Price in his last 6 suggests Morono is in better form. The model heavily factors this in.

• Striking Metrics: Morono's significant strike accuracy (41% vs 34.5%), defense (58% vs 46%), and volume (4.87 landed per minute vs 4.38) advantages all boost his winning chances in the model.

Past Model Performance

• The model only has a small 1-1 sample size on Price's fights, so his prediction history is inconclusive.

• However, the model has gone an impressive 4-1 in predicting Morono's last 5 fights. This includes correctly picking him to beat Donald Cerrone and Tim Means. The model seems to have a good read on Morono.

Conclusion

The rematch between Niko Price and Alex Morono is a compelling clash of styles between an explosive action fighter and a cerebral technician. However, Morono looks to be a justifiable favorite given his crisper striking, more reliable grappling, and superior recent form.

Price certainly has a puncher's chance with his power and aggression, but barring a quick KO, Morono's more complete game should win out over the distance. The model is aligned with the betting odds in seeing Morono as a clear favorite.

While Price's fan-friendly style always makes him a threat, Morono looks primed to capitalize on the holes in Price's game and potentially end their rivalry with a convincing victory at UFC 302.