Analysis: Jailton Almeida vs. Alexandr Romanov

WolfTicketsAI Predicts Jailton Almeida to Win

Score: 17 Odds: Jailton Almeida: -275 Alexandr Romanov: +220

Jailton Almeida's Breakdown

Jailton Almeida is a well-rounded fighter with an impressive 20-3 professional record, including 12 wins by submission. The 32-year-old Brazilian averages 6.88 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 59% accuracy rate, showcasing his strong wrestling and grappling skills. On the feet, Almeida lands 2.54 significant strikes per minute at a 64% accuracy.

In his UFC career, Almeida has averaged an extraordinary 2.21 submissions per fight. His relentless grappling pressure is evidenced by his 6.91 takedowns landed per fight on 11.62 attempts. Almeida's anaconda choke submission of Parker Porter demonstrated his ability to quickly snatch a neck and secure a tap.

However, it's important to note that Almeida is coming off a knockout loss to Curtis Blaydes in his most recent fight. Prior to that setback, he had been on an impressive run, submitting opponents like Shamil Abdurakhimov and Danilo Marques.

Alexandr Romanov's Breakdown

Alexandr Romanov, nicknamed "King Kong," enters with a 17-2 record including 5 knockout wins. The powerful 33-year-old Moldovan lands 4.06 significant strikes per minute, highlighting his dangerous striking ability.

However, Romanov's wrestling and grappling are considered weaknesses, averaging just 0.5 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 54% accuracy rate. He has also shown some cardio issues in longer fights.

In his last outing, Romanov defeated Blagoy Ivanov by decision. But prior to that, he suffered a TKO loss to Alexander Volkov and a decision defeat against Marcin Tybura, a fight where Romanov struggled to implement his grappling and was outstruck.

While a skilled grappler in his own right with 0.86 submission wins per UFC fight and 4.32 takedowns landed per fight, Romanov absorbs 2.05 significant strikes per minute, compared to just 1.08 for Almeida, making him more hittable in striking exchanges.

Analysis and Key Points

• Contrasting styles: Almeida's high-level wrestling and submissions clash with Romanov's powerful striking, setting up an intriguing stylistic matchup. Whoever can impose their strengths should have the edge.
• Almeida's path to victory: Almeida will look to utilize his 6.88 takedowns per 15 minutes to ground Romanov where he can unleash his potent submission game. If Almeida can take the back or isolate a limb, a finish is very possible.
• Romanov's knockout power: While Romanov has holes in his wrestling and cardio, his 4.06 significant strikes landed per minute and 5 knockout wins can't be overlooked. If he can stuff Almeida's takedowns and land heavy shots, a KO is a real threat.
• Cardio could be key: Romanov has shown cardio issues in longer fights, while Almeida's pressure could further fatigue him. If Romanov slows down, Almeida's grappling could take over.

Understanding the Prediction

The model predicts Almeida as a solid favorite, giving him a 59.86% chance of winning based on ELO ratings and 66.49% using logistic regression.

Key factors increasing the model's confidence in Almeida include:

• Takedown attempts: Almeida's 10.80 takedown attempts per fight recently compared to 7.88 for Romanov.
• Striking defense: Almeida's superior 35.7% strike defense and 52.4% significant strike defense recently, compared to 38.9% and 44.4% for Romanov.
• Reach advantage: Almeida will enjoy a 4-inch reach advantage at 79" vs. 75".

The model has been successful predicting both fighters, going 4-1 in Almeida's last 5 and 3-1 in Romanov's last 4. The only misses came against elite opposition. Given this past performance, there is good reason to trust the model here.

Conclusion

Expect a clash of styles as submission specialist Jailton Almeida takes on knockout artist Alexandr Romanov. Almeida's strong wrestling, active submission game, and reach advantage make him a deserving favorite. However, Romanov's explosive striking and KO power mean he's always a threat, especially early.

Ultimately, Almeida's clearest path to victory is using his grappling to drain Romanov's questionable cardio and secure a submission. But if Romanov can land a bomb early or keep the fight standing, a KO upset isn't out of the question.

The model sees Almeida winning, likely inside the distance by submission. But with heavyweight MMA's volatility, Romanov's knockout ability adds intrigue to an already compelling matchup. It should be an exciting fight for as long as it lasts.